UK CBI Forecast Subdued GDP Growth In Coming Years
20 Juin 2017 - 3:54AM
RTTF2
The Confederation of British Industry forecast a steady, but
subdued economic growth for the UK over the next couple of years as
the country faces several headwinds.
In its latest economic forecast, released Tuesday, the business
lobby said British businesses and the government should navigate
carefully in the months ahead amid the ongoing political
uncertainty and Brexit negotiations.
The business group forecast 1.6 percent growth for this year and
1.4 percent for 2018. The outlook for this year was revised up from
1.3 percent and that for next year from 1.1 percent.
Nonetheless, the CBI's projection remains unchanged compared to
its previous November forecast, with the same average quarterly
growth of 0.3 percent seen for the second half of this year as in
November.
"Growth should be steady, if restrained, over the next couple of
years as the pace of the economy shifts down a gear," Carolyn
Fairbairn, CBI director-general, said.
Following a sharp slowdown in GDP growth in the first quarter,
the CBI expects a mild rebound to 0.4 percent in the second
quarter.
As inflation is forecast to stay close to the current 2.9
percent level through the end of this year, real earnings are set
to remain under pressure, the CBI said. Consequently, slowing
household spending growth is expected to provide less support to
growth.
Business investment is seen holding up over the near-term, but
with uncertainty still holding back larger spending projects, the
CBI forecast investment to wane over the course of 2018.
Nonetheless, softer domestic demand is expected to be
counter-balanced by more support from net trade. After a large drag
in the first quarter, the CBI expects net trade to support economic
growth throughout the forecast period.
On the monetary policy front, the CBI expects the Bank of
England to lift the interest rates slightly to 0.50 percent in the
third quarter of 2018.
"Risks to our forecast remain high," Rain Newton-Smith, CBI
Chief Economist, said.
"In particular, uncertainty over the UK's future role in the EU
could have more of an impact on both activity and financial market
volatility than we expect."
The economic forecast was carried out prior to the General
Election on June 8 that led to a hung parliament after the Tories
led by Prime Minister Theresa May failed to win a majority.
Euro vs CHF (FX:EURCHF)
Graphique Historique de la Devise
De Mar 2024 à Avr 2024
Euro vs CHF (FX:EURCHF)
Graphique Historique de la Devise
De Avr 2023 à Avr 2024