Bitcoin Could Crash To $60,000 If This Support Gets Lost: CryptoQuant Head
18 Juin 2024 - 6:00AM
NEWSBTC
On-chain data shows Bitcoin is approaching the “Realized Price” of
the short-term holders, a retest of which has historically been
important for BTC. Bitcoin Is Close To Seeing A Retest Of
Short-Term Holder Cost Basis In a new post on X, CryptoQuant Head
of Research Julio Moreno has discussed how BTC has recently been
near the Realized Price of the short-term holders. Related Reading:
Bitcoin Mining Cost At $86,700: Price To Surpass This Soon? The
“Realized Price” here refers to an on-chain indicator that, in
short, keeps track of the average price at which investors or
addresses on the Bitcoin network acquired their coins. When the
cryptocurrency’s spot price is higher than this metric, it means
that the average holder in the market is currently sitting on some
profits. On the other hand, BTC’s value under the indicator
suggests the dominance of losses among the investors. Naturally,
when the two are exactly equal, the market as a whole can be
assumed to be holding an equal amount of unrealized profits and
losses. The holders could collectively be considered just breaking
even on their investment. In the context of the current topic, the
Realized Price of only a specific part of the sector is of focus:
the short-term holders (STHs). The STHs are the investors who
bought their coins within the past 155 days. Below is a chart that
shows the trend in the Realized Price of the Bitcoin STHs over the
past couple of years: The above graph shows that the Bitcoin price
is close to the Realized Price of the STHs. This means that the
margin is small, although these investors are sitting in profits
right now. Thus, it’s possible that if the cryptocurrency continues
on its latest bearish trajectory, a retest of the average cost
basis of this cohort could be imminent. In the past, such retests
have proven relevant for the asset. Moreno has highlighted in the
chart the interactions the asset’s spot value has shown with this
level during the last two years. It would appear that during two of
these retests (marked with green circles), the coin found support
at this level and rebounded upwards to continue the bullish
momentum. Related Reading: Bitcoin FOMO: Social Media Users Calling
To Buy Sub-$66,000 Dip However, in the three other instances (red
circles), Bitcoin failed to retest the level and observed a
decline. These corrections were from 8% to 12%, and the latest
occurrence of the trend was at the end of April/start of May. With
another retest possibly approaching for the cryptocurrency, it
would be interesting to see which of the two patterns would follow
this time around. If a breakdown of the level happens, the analyst
notes, “the price could decline to about $60K.” BTC Price At the
time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $65,400, down over 6%
in the past week. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com,
chart from TradingView.com
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