Oil Falls on Fresh Demand Worries
22 Janvier 2019 - 4:22PM
Dow Jones News
By Christopher Alessi and Amrith Ramkumar
-- Oil prices fell Tuesday, pausing a recent recovery on fresh
worries that slower global economic growth will lead to lower fuel
consumption.
-- Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell 2% to $61.51 a
barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange. Prices are up more
than 20% from their Dec. 24 16-month low but still nearly 30% below
their Oct. 3 multiyear high.
-- West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. oil standard,
dipped 2.1% to $52.68 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
They have also risen sharply alongside stocks and other risk assets
since Christmas Eve but, like Brent prices, remain well off their
nearly four-year highs from October.
HIGHLIGHTS
Demand Fears: The International Monetary Fund on Monday cut its
forecast for world economic growth in 2019 to 3.5%, compared with
3.7% in October. The fund's managing director, Christine Lagarde,
warned the "risk of a sharper decline in global growth has
certainly increased."
Ms. Lagarde's comments at the World Economic Forum in Davos,
Switzerland, came as China -- the world's second-largest economy
and biggest importer of crude -- reported economic growth had
slowed to its lowest rate in nearly three decades, at 6.6% in
2018.
"Whether it is the renewed focus on China's issues, the cautious
voices out of Davos, with the IMF recently having downgraded its
global 2019 GDP forecast to a three year low of 3.5%, the
complicated Brexit process or the general flow over the last few
days of bearish analyst pieces on the equity side of things, there
are clearly enough reasons to not get carried away by the latest
[oil] rally," analysts at consulting firm JBC Energy wrote in a
note Tuesday.
Worries about the global economy amid trade tensions and higher
interest rates have stoked volatility across asset classes in
recent months, fueling fears that demand for a range of commodities
and products will fall. Oil's Tuesday dip came with stocks and
other commodities also dropping.
INSIGHT
OPEC+: Oil prices have overall been bolstered during the first
month of the year by the implementation of production curbs by the
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies
outside the cartel.
OPEC and 10 partner producers, led by Russia, agreed in early
December to collectively hold back crude output by 1.2 million
barrels a day for the first six months of 2019. The move was part
of an effort to rein in a burgeoning supply glut and boost prices,
which had plunged by about 40% in the fourth quarter of last
year.
OPEC's commitment to the cuts was given more credibility last
week after the International Energy Agency reported that the
cartel's output came down by 590,000 barrels a day just last month
-- driven largely by the organization's de facto leader, Saudi
Arabia. However, Russian crude and condensate production climbed by
80,000 barrels a day last month to a record high, the agency said
in its monthly oil-market report.
Russia and Saudi Arabia are the world's two largest oil
producers behind the U.S., which took the top spot over the past
year as a result of robust shale-oil growth.
AHEAD
-- The U.S. Energy Information Administration is set to release
its monthly drilling-productivity report later Tuesday.
-- The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, releases
weekly data on U.S. oil inventories Wednesday, followed by official
government data from the EIA on Thursday.
Write to Christopher Alessi at christopher.alessi@wsj.com and
Amrith Ramkumar at amrith.ramkumar@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 22, 2019 10:07 ET (15:07 GMT)
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