How To Trade Bitcoin During The US Election, Expert Reveals
01 Novembre 2024 - 10:30PM
NEWSBTC
As the United States approaches its presidential election on
Tuesday, November 5, 2024, the Bitcoin market is bracing for
significant volatility. In the lead-up to the election, Bitcoin
surged to a high of $73,620 on Tuesday, likely reflecting investor
optimism over a potential victory for former President Donald
Trump. However, by Friday, the BTC price experienced a correction,
dipping to $68,830 amid a more cautious, risk-off sentiment as the
election looms. How To Trade Bitcoin During US Election Alex
Krüger, an Argentine economist and renowned crypto analyst, shared
his strategic framework on how to trade Bitcoin during the US
election period via his X account. Krüger outlined scenarios based
on possible election outcomes, highlighting that a Trump victory
could propel Bitcoin to $90,000 by year-end with a 55% probability,
while a win for Vice President Kamala Harris might see Bitcoin
settle around $65,000 with a 45% probability. He emphasized that
timing will matter: “Expect the move to be fast if Trump wins.
Markets rarely waits for laggards on binary events not largely
front-run.” Krüger also noted that the current Bitcoin price, which
he anticipated to be in the $65k-68k range leading up to election
night, had “overshot” in alignment with the probabilities favoring
a Trump victory. He pointed out the uncertainty surrounding the
election results, primarily hinging on the Pennsylvania vote count,
which could delay the announcement of a clear winner. Related
Reading: Bitcoin Set To Gain If Trump Wins, JPMorgan Cites
‘Debasement Trade’ As Key Factor “It largely depends on the
Pennsylvania count, if it is lopsided or not. It could be as early
as Tuesday evening EST, or days later if the count is very tight.
The sooner we get clarity, the easier it gets,” Krüger stated.
Regarding market sentiment, Krüger expressed a bullish outlook on
equities regardless of the election outcome, unless there is an
unexpected “Blue sweep” where Democrats secure both the presidency
and congressional majorities. He explained that “equities drag
Bitcoin around.” In his personal investment strategy, Krüger
revealed that he is positioned with long spots in Bitcoin and
Nvidia, and plans to go long on Solana (SOL) if Trump wins. With
this, Krüger is likely betting on a spot Solana Exchange Traded
Fund (ETF) approval in the United States. Krüger’s analysis
suggests that the market has partially priced in a Trump victory,
anticipating that a Trump administration could bolster the Bitcoin
price. “Markets have partially priced a Trump victory in. We (the
market, in aggregate) expect Trump to drive crypto prices higher
due to increased regulatory clarity and implementation of
pro-crypto policies,” the analyst wrote. Related Reading: Can
Bitcoin Hit $200,000 Only If The Dollar Falls? Bitwise CIO Answers
Additionally, he expects that Trump’s focus on increased government
spending would stimulate short-term economic growth, positively
impacting equities—a sector closely linked to Bitcoin’s
performance. Conversely, a Harris victory would likely represent a
continuation of existing policies, barring a significant Democratic
sweep. Krüger concluded: “Based on betting markets and various
election forecasting models, Trump’s probabilities are in the 50%
to 63% range. Ergo, it’s “safe” to assume a GOP victory is far from
being fully priced in. Such a contested setup is common going into
elections. That is why I do not expect ‘sell the news’.” At press
time, BTC traded at $70,402. Featured image created with DALL.E,
chart from TradingView.com
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