Global Growth To Slow Amid Mounting Challenges, Says OECD
22 Novembre 2022 - 07:59AM
RTTF2
The global economy faces significant challenges as severe energy
crisis pushed up inflation and lowered economic growth all around
the globe, necessitating policy actions to combat inflation and
targeted fiscal support to vulnerable section, the Organisation for
Economic Co-operation and Development said in its Economic Outlook
released Tuesday.
The Paris-based OECD forecast global growth to ease to 2.2
percent next year from 3.1 percent in 2022. In 2024, growth is
projected to be 2.7 percent, helped by initial steps to ease policy
interest rates. For global economy, Asia will be the main growth
engine in 2023 and 2024, while growth will be very low in Europe,
North America and South America, the agency observed. The OECD
advised central banks to tighten their policy where inflation
remains high and broad-based. Fiscal support to shield families and
firms from the energy shock should be targeted and temporary, the
report said.
As energy prices are likely to remain high and volatile for some
time, untargeted measures to keep prices down will become
increasingly unaffordable, and could discourage the needed energy
savings. "A renewed focus on structural policies will allow
policymakers to foster employment and productivity, as well as to
make growth work for all," OECD chief economist Álvaro Santos
Pereira said.
Although the central scenario is not a global recession, a
significant growth slowdown for the world economy in 2023 is
estimated.
The agency expects the U.S. real GDP to grow at a pace of 0.5
percent in 2023 and 1.0 percent in 2024 as continued monetary
policy tightening provide a headwind to near-term growth.
The OECD expects China's economic growth to slow to 3.3 percent
in 2022 and rebound to 4.6 percent in 2023 and 4.1 percent in
2024.
Eurozone real GDP growth is seen at 3.3 percent in 2022 and only
0.5 percent in 2023 owing to Russia's war of aggression against
Ukraine, monetary policy tightening and the global slowdown. Growth
is projected to rebound to 1.4 percent in 2024.
The UK economy is projected to expand 0.2 percent in 2024 after
contracting 0.4 percent next year. Inflation is expected to peak at
around 10 percent late this year before gradually declining to 2.7
percent by the end of 2024.
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