1 de 17
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Modifié le 18/9/2007 22:16
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Le point à 22h15 SPY
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2 de 17
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Modifié le 18/9/2007 22:20
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AP, http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070918/wall_street.html?.v=53
Stocks Soar After Fed's Big Rate Cut
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Tuesday September 18, 4:16 pm ET
By Madlen Read, AP Business Writer
Stocks Soar After Fed's Bigger-Than-Expected Half-Point Cut in Interest Rates
NEW YORK (AP) -- A jubilant Wall Street barreled higher Tuesday after the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by a larger-than-expected half percentage point. The Dow Jones industrial average surged more than 330 points after the Fed announced its move -- its biggest one-day point jump in nearly five years.
Although some investors hoped for a rate cut of that magnitude, most were betting on a smaller, quarter-point cut in the federal funds rate. The Fed responded to the spreading impact of credit market problems on the rest of the economy by saying, "the tightening of credit conditions has the potential to intensify the housing (market) correction and to restrain economic growth more generally."
The Fed cut the benchmark fed funds rate to 4.75 percent after keeping it unchanged for more than a year. It has not lowered this rate since 2003. It also reduced the discount rate -- what it charges banks borrowing from its discount window -- by half a percentage point to 5.25 percent. On Aug. 17, the central bank lowered the discount rate by a half-point to help keep cash moving in the U.S. banking system.
The central bank's decision and the wording of its accompanying economic assessment gratified a market that plunged during August amid fears that credit market tightness, spawned by a continuum of mortgage defaults and delinquencies, would send the economy toward recession.
There was no direct signal in the Fed's statement that it would make further rate cuts. It said "some inflation risks remain" and that it will keep monitoring inflation developments. Still, it did not call inflation its "predominant policy concern" as it did after holding rates steady in early August.
"What it says to me is you had a major shift in the last couple of months from a Fed that was very concerned about inflation to one that is concerned about the health of the financial markets, the availability of liquidity," said Jerry Webman, chief economist at Oppenheimer Funds Inc.
The Dow soared 336.05, or 2.51 percent, to 13,739.47. The last time it rose more than 300 points in one session was Oct. 14, 2002, when it gained 378 points. The blue-chip index is now only about 1.9 percent below its record close of 14,000.41 reached in mid-July.
The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 43.13, or 2.92 percent, to 1,519.78. The Nasdaq composite index gained 70.00, or 2.71 percent, to 2,651.66.
Small-cap stocks, badly beaten during the market's summer turmoil, shot higher. The Russell 2000 index surged 30.82, or 3.97 percent, to 806.63.
Shorter-term Treasury issues rose and longer-term bonds fell. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note finished little changed at 4.47 percent, the same as late Monday. Bond prices move opposite their yields.
New York Stock Exchange: http://www.nyse.com
Nasdaq Stock Market: http://www.nasdaq.com
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070918/wall_street.html?.v=53
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3 de 17
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18/9/2007 23:48
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Economic Calendar
19/09/2007 00:30 AUD WMI Leading Index m/m 1.0%
19/09/2007 06:00 EUR German PPI m/m 0.1% -0.1%
19/09/2007 07:15 CHF Retail Sales y/y 5.2% 1.0%
19/09/2007 08:30 GBP MPC Meeting Minutes 9-0
19/09/2007 11:00 CAD Core CPI m/m 0.1% 0.1%
19/09/2007 11:00 CAD CPI m/m 0.1% 0.1%
19/09/2007 12:30 CAD Leading Indicators m/m 0.3% 0.4%
19/09/2007 12:30 USD Building Permits 1.35M 1.37M
19/09/2007 12:30 USD Housing Starts 1.36M 1.38M
19/09/2007 12:30 USD Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%
19/09/2007 12:30 USD CPI m/m 0.0% 0.1%
19/09/2007 14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -7.0M
19/09/2007 22:45 NZD Current Account -2.22B
19/09/2007 23:50 JPY BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions q/q -2.2
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4 de 17
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Modifié le 19/9/2007 00:00
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La situation à 23h55 sur les "Cubes" : QQQQ
After Hours
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5 de 17
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Modifié le 19/9/2007 08:27
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La situation à 08h25, UT 30min
FUTURE SPX (DEC-07)
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6 de 17
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Modifié le 19/9/2007 08:33
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Les cubes (QQQQ) en overnight, jusqu'à 2 h ce matin, UT 3min
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7 de 17
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Modifié le 19/9/2007 09:48
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LA CLOTURE A WALL STREET: http://commerzbank.zonebourse.com/wm/WarrantMatin194.pdf
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Wall Street exulte, la clôture a été saluée par une clameur de triomphe alors que les indices US ont explosé de
+2,5% à +2,9%: la FED a voté à l'unanimité une réduction de 50Pts des 2 principaux taux directeurs.
Les marchés n'ont retenu que l'aspect 'ballon d'oxygène' de cette décision et totalement occulté le commentaire
de Ben Bernanke qui invoque de réelles inquiétude face à la dégradation conjoncturelle et la montée des
incertitudes aux USA. Pourquoi une forte baisse de taux anticipée par plus de 60% et même 70% des opérateurs
(depuis le chiffre des prix de gros en début d'après-midi mardi) a t'elle suscité la plus forte hausse collective des
indices US cette année... et la plus spectaculaire du 'S&P-500' depuis le 17 mars 2003 (avec 494 titres en
hausse... peut être un record historique?). Le Dow a gagné +336Pts, le Nasdaq +2,7% comme si un formidable
'effet de surprise' avait joué: les indices US avaient réagi mollement à l'annonce -très surprenante pour le coupd'une
baisse de -1,4% des prix à la production au mois d'août (grâce au repli de -6,6% du coût de l'énergie).
Les opérateurs ont par ailleurs totalement ignoré la flambée du baril à 82,3$, la chute du moral des promoteurs
immobiliers (le baromètre de la NAHB chute de 31 vers 26 en septembre, au plus bas depuis mars 1991).
Le Dollar tutoie ce soir les 1,40/E (1,3990), les taux courts (2 ans) se sont détendus de 10Pts (à 3,97%... ce qui
en dit long sur les attentes de baisse de taux au cours des 12 prochains mois), le '10 ans' affichait 4,47% (presque
stables, les T-Bonds ont pâti de l'appel d'air en faveur des actions).
Des actions si nombreuses à la hausse qu'il est vain de se livrer à une analyse détaillée des vedettes du jour (tant
les écarts supérieurs à 5% étaient nombreux... +3% étant 'dans la petite moyenne').
Parmi les locomotives du jour, Lehman Brothers a mis le turbo avec un gain de +10% (bénéfice trimestriel en
baisse mais supérieur aux attentes), Goldman Sachs s'est distingué avec une envolée de +7%, juste devant JP
Morgan (+5,69%), Citigroup (+5,25%) ou Merrill Lynch (+5%).
Les constructeur de maisons individuelles ont également époustouflé Wall Street avec Toll Brothers (+8,65%), DR
Horton (+5,5%), KB Homes (+3,8%) et le specialiste du BTP et du terrassement Caterpillar (+5,1%).
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8 de 17
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Modifié le 19/9/2007 10:38
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AP, http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070919/fed_interest_rates.html?.v=2
Rate Cut May Provide Only Passing Relief
Wednesday September 19, 3:20 am ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
Good Feelings Created by Fed's Rate Cut Could Recede As Fast As They Rolled In
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Like the tides, the wave of good feelings that swept over Wall Street and Main Street with the Federal Reserve's big rate cut could ebb just as quickly.
Homeowners opening up statements for their adjustable-rate mortgages come October will experience a jolt when the rates jump, but not as severe a jolt as it could have been.
And, Wall Street's mood swings -- reflecting bouts of panic and then some relief -- are expected to linger.
That's because the Fed's action, while perhaps providing some help, won't cure problems in the ailing housing market, which are still expected to drag well into next year.
It will take time for builders to work off a glut of unsold homes. That means the housing slump will continue to hold back the economy and probably lead to more job cuts in construction, manufacturing and other industries.
The Fed's action also won't stop home foreclosures and late mortgage payments from rising in the months ahead.
In a bold move, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues on Tuesday sliced a key interest rate by one-half a percentage point to 4.75 percent. It was the first rate cut in more than four years.
Their aim is to prevent the economy from being thrown into a recession by a housing meltdown and a credit crunch. Lower rates should induce people and businesses to boost spending and investing, which would help energize economic activity.
Wall Street investors were cheered by the move, sending the Dow Jones industrial average zooming 335.97 points. It was the Dow's biggest one-day point jump in nearly five years.
Over the short term, the rate cut can provide an important psychological boost. It could make investors, businesses and others less inclined to clamp down or make drastic changes in their behavior that would hurt the economy.
"This does not heal the financial markets, but it can help in the process of healing. But we're not there yet," said Ken Mayland, economist at ClearView Economics.
The improved mind set, though, could turn out to be fleeting.
"I think the honeymoon is going to be pretty short for the euphoria of this Fed cut," said Greg McBride, senior financial analyst for Bankrate.com. "A half-point cut can only do so much. It doesn't transform the housing market into sunshine and daffodils."
The housing market is suffering through its worst slump in 16 years. Home sales are expected to keep on sagging. Home prices, which saw double-digit gains in many areas during the boom, have cooled off significantly. Affordability is still an issue for would-be home buyers, experts say.
Pain will continue to be felt by borrowers, lenders and investors of "subprime" mortgages -- higher-risk loans made to people with spotty credit or with low incomes.
Analysts estimate that 2 million adjustable-rate mortgages will jump from very low initial teaser rates to higher rates this year and next. Steep prepayment penalties have made it difficult for some to get out of their mortgages. Some overstretched homeowners can't afford to refinance or even sell their homes.
The Fed's action does provide a bit of relief. For owners facing a reset on Oct. 1, their new rate will rise to 6.75 percent, versus 7.50 if it had reset a few months earlier, McBride said.
"The payment is still going up by hundreds of dollars a month. So people are not going to feel warm and fuzzy," he said.
The subprime mortgage meltdown has forced some lenders out of business, and whacked investors.
Congress, meanwhile, is working on plans to help struggling homeowners avoid foreclosure, although it could take a few months for a final package to be approved.
For consumers, whose confidence has been rattled by the housing and credit problems, much turns on whether employment conditions continue to deteriorate.
The economy lose 4,000 jobs in August, the first decline in four years. The unemployment rate, now at 4.6 percent, is expected to climb close to 5 percent by the end of the year. A softening job market eventually will probably mean slower wage growth.
Howard Chernick, economic professor at Hunter College, doesn't think the Fed's rate cut will make people rush to the malls.
"Consumer spending is influenced by employment and wages," Chernick said. "Aside from the euphoria some might now feel, I don't think there is going to be a big effect."
It will take months for the Fed's rate cut to ripple through the economy, with the hope that it will bolster activity.
Analysts expect the economy to slow to a rate of about 2 percent in the July-to-September quarter. That would be just half the pace of the previous three months. Growth in the final three months of this year could turn out even weaker.
Ex-Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, in an interview Monday with The Associated Press, said the odds of a recession are growing.
"Obviously the odds have moved up to more than a third, but I doubt if we are anywhere near 50 percent yet." Earlier this year, his prediction of a one-in-three chance of a recession caused Wall Street to nosedive.
EDITOR'S NOTE-- Jeannine Aversa has covered economics and the Federal Reserve for The Associated Press since 1999.
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9 de 17
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Modifié le 19/9/2007 14:46
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Morgan stanley, profit warning http://www.boursier.com/vals/US/morgan-stanley-deception-au-3eme-trimestre-news-251894.htm
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10 de 17
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19/9/2007 14:21
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à voir
http://www.boursier.com/vals/ALL/palmares/capipa.asp
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11 de 17
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Modifié le 19/9/2007 14:46
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Suite : http://www.boursier.com/vals/ALL/palmares/newyork.asp
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12 de 17
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19/9/2007 14:57
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17/09 - 18:20 CAC40: vers une rechute sur 5300Pts ?.
bouso va !
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13 de 17
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19/9/2007 16:33
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Today's Trading Tip:
"Being Short Before the FOMC Report Spells Danger!!!"
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14 de 17
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19/9/2007 16:33
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Value Areas:
Mini S&P: 1501.50-1534.25
Mini NDQ: 2020-2061
Use These Value Areas
for Trading on
WED!
Mini Russ: 780.00-805.80
Mini Dow: 13598-13846
Click Here for the Value Area
Help Guide
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15 de 17
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Modifié le 19/9/2007 16:35
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Value Area Help Guide : http://www.secretsoftraders.com/ValueAreaHelpGuide.htm
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16 de 17
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19/9/2007 21:40
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Futures: ECBOT Exchange is down,orders can not be cancelled, entered or amended. We do not have any timeframe, will let you know asap.
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17 de 17
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Modifié le 19/9/2007 21:41
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