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Modifié le 28/9/2007 05:45
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MARKET UPDATE:
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4:25 pm : The stock market proved to be resilient Thursday, finishing moderately higher in the face of mixed economic news and high oil prices. Weekly Initial Claims were surprisingly better than expected, while new home sales reached their lowest level in more than seven years.
The stock market opened on a high note, helped in part by a Wall Street Journal article that indicated J.C. Flowers, Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase are open to renegotiating their agreement to acquire student lender SLM Corp (SLM 49.12, +4.11).
suite... http://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/overview
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Modifié le 28/9/2007 10:14
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LA CLÖTURE DE WALL STREET
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http://commerzbank.zonebourse.com/wm/WarrantMatin202.pdf
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Le 3ème trimestre expire dans 48H et Wall-Street se sent pousser des ailes: le Dow Jones (+0,7%) a gagné pas
moins de 100Pts en clôture et s'est même hissé en séance à 0,75% de son record historique de la mi-juillet (et le
gain trimestriel dépasse désormais les +3,5%).
L'indice phare a bénéficié de l'envolée de +9,4% de General Motors après l'accord salarial intervenu avec l'UAW
(Ford a suivi avec +6,5%). A une semaine de la publication de ses trimestriels et alors que la production reprend
dans l'industrie automobile, Alcoa a grimpé de +4%.
Les rumeurs d'évolution du capital de Bear Stearns ont fait flamber le titre de +7,7%: Warren Buffet serait
intéressé par une participation au capital de 20%... à moins que ce ne soit Bank of America, ou encore des
institutions financières chinoises.
Plus globalement, les indices US ont été soutenus par la perspective d'une nouvelle baisse des taux de la Fed
après la parution d'une série de statistiques économiques maussades, allant dans le sens d'une possible baisse
des taux de la Réserve fédérale cet automne.
Le lourd repli des commandes de biens durables au mois d'août (-4,9% contre -4,5% attendu) semble également
valider le scénario d'un nouveau geste de la Fed à la fin du mois d'octobre (hors transport, la dégradation apparaît
bien plus modeste... -1,8%).
Reste que les chiffres des commandes de biens durables n'ont pas entraîné de véritable remous sur les marchés
boursiers US, visiblement réconfortés par l'accord conclu dans la nuit par General Motors et l'UAW, le puissant
syndicat automobile américain et qui met fin à la paralysie dans les 80 usines et chaînes d'assemblage du
constructeur.
'Bien que tous les détails ne soient pas encore connus, l'accord trouvé par GM et l'UAW devrait significativement
améliorer le profil de rentabilité du constructeur', estime un analyste new-yorkais.
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3 de 13
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Modifié le 28/9/2007 10:44
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AP
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http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070928/freddie_mac_fraud.html?.v=3
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Freddie Mac Pays $50M to Settle Charges
Friday September 28, 12:22 am ET
By Marcy Gordon, AP Business Writer
Freddie Mac Pays $50M to Settle Charges of Misrepresenting Earnings to Investors
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Freddie Mac, the nation's second-largest financer of home mortgages, is paying a $50 million fine to settle civil securities fraud charges brought by federal regulators in a four-year accounting lapse.
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4 de 13
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28/9/2007 10:55
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COMMUNIQUÉ DE PRESSE
25 septembre 2007 - Situation financière consolidée de l’Eurosystème au 21 septembre 2007
Postes non liés aux opérations de politique monétaire
Au cours de la semaine s’étant terminée le 21 septembre 2007, la baisse de EUR 34 millions des avoirs et créances en or (rubrique 1 de l’actif) a résulté de ventes d’or effectuées par une banque centrale de l’Eurosystème (conformes à l’Accord sur les avoirs en or des banques centrales conclu le 27 septembre 2004).
La position nette en devises de l’Eurosystème (rubriques 2 et 3 de l’actif moins rubriques 7, 8 et 9 du passif) a augmenté de EUR 0,5 milliard, à EUR 145,6 milliards, à la suite des opérations de clientèle et de portefeuille.
Les avoirs de l’Eurosystème en titres en euros négociables émis par des résidents de la zone euro (rubrique 7 de l’actif) se sont réduits de EUR 0,1 milliard, à EUR 94,5 milliards. L’encours des billets en circulation (rubrique 1 du passif) a diminué de EUR 2,5 milliards, à EUR 635 milliards. Les engagements envers les administrations publiques (rubrique 5.1 du passif) se sont accrus de EUR 12,1 milliards, à EUR 68,7 milliards.
Postes liés aux opérations de politique monétaire
Les concours nets accordés par l’Eurosystème aux établissements de crédit (rubrique 5 de l’actif moins rubriques 2.2, 2.3, 2.4, 2.5 et 4 du passif) ont reculé de EUR 112,2 milliards, à EUR 420,2 milliards. Le mercredi 19 septembre 2007, une opération principale de refinancement, à hauteur de EUR 269 milliards, est arrivée à échéance et une nouvelle opération, d’un montant de EUR 155 milliards, a été réglée.
Le recours à la facilité de prêt marginal (rubrique 5.5 de l’actif) s’est situé à EUR 0,6 milliard, contre un niveau proche de zéro la semaine précédente, et l’utilisation de la facilité de dépôt (rubrique 2.2 du passif) s’est établie à EUR 0,4 milliard, contre EUR 1,7 milliard la semaine précédente.
Comptes courants du secteur financier de la zone euro
Du fait de l'ensemble des transactions, les avoirs en compte courant détenus par les établissements de crédit auprès de l’Eurosystème (rubrique 2.1 du passif) se sont contractés de EUR 119,9 milliards, à EUR 154,7 milliards.
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5 de 13
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28/9/2007 11:08
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- http://stockexchange.blogbourse.com/
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6 de 13
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28/9/2007 11:20
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46000 1439s ?
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7 de 13
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Modifié le 28/9/2007 13:51
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Source : http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7015862.stm
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UK 'may need to cut rates' - OECD
The UK may need to cut interest rates to boost its economy, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation Development (OECD) has warned.
It says that the global credit crunch could cut Britain's economic growth rate below the 2.5% expected next year.
And it singled out the housing market as the area of greatest vulnerability.
The OECD also warned that the slowing economy could increase the budget deficit and lead to possible spending cuts as tax revenues slowed.
The report comes as the government is set to announce its comprehensive spending plans for the next three years, with a sharp squeeze on public spending likely.
Growth 'risk'
The OECD, which represents the 33 most advanced industrial countries, made the comments as part of its annual economic survey of the UK economy.
(suite at) ../...
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7015862.stm
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8 de 13
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Modifié le 28/9/2007 14:18
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Hurricane alert : http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/bigphotos/65043171.html
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9 de 13
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28/9/2007 14:28
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Today's U.S. Earnings Reports
Earnings reports (confirmed releases for companies with market caps above $2.5 bln listed by mkt cap): (BEST earnings consensus $0.00 per share)
Global Financial Calendar Friday 9/28/2007
United States
0830 ET Aug personal income expected +0.4%, July +0.5%. Aug personal spending expected +0.4%, July +0.4%. Aug PCE deflator expected +1.7% y/y, July +2.1% y/y. Aug PCE core expected +0.1% m/m and +1.8% y/y, July +0.1% m/m and +1.9% y/y.
0945 ET Sep Chicago purchasing managers index expected –0.8 to 53.0, Aug +0.4 to 53.8.
1000 ET Fed Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart speaks on the U.S. economic outlook in Murfreesboro, Tennessee.
1000 ET Aug construction spending expected –0.3%, July –0.4%.
1000 ET Final Sep University of Michigan consumer confidence expected +0.2 to 84.0, previous +0.4 to 83.8.
1015 ET Fed Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen speaks at a Federal Reserve Bank of Boston conference on behavioral economics and economic policy.
1300 ET Fed Reserve Bank of St. Louis President William Poole speaks about “Thinking like a central banker” at the Princeton Club in N.Y.
1315 ET Fed Reserve Governor Frederic Mishkin gives keynote address at the Chicago Fed’s international banking conference on globalization and systemic risk.
Japan
0000 ET Aug Japan vehicle production y/y, July –10.5% y/y.
0100 ET Aug Japan housing starts expected –15.8% y/y, July –23.4% y/y.
0100 ET Aug Japan construction orders y/y, July –10.4% y/y.
Germany
0200 ET Aug German retail sales expected +0.3% m/m and –1.5% y/y, July +0.6% m/m and –1.5% y/y.
France
0240 ET Sep French consumer confidence indicator expected –2 to –17, Aug –3 to –15.
0245 ET Final French Q2 GDP expected unch at +0.3% q/q and +1.3% y/y.
0250 ET Aug French producer prices expected unch m/m and +1.3% y/y, July +0.2% m/m and +1.9% y/y.
Euro-Zone
0500 ET Sep Euro-Zone consumer confidence expected –1 to –4, Aug –1 to –3.
0500 ET Sep Euro-Zone economic confidence expected –1 to 109.0, Aug –1 to 110.0.
0500 ET Sep Euro-Zone CPI estimate expected +2.1% y/y, Aug +1.7% y/y.
Canada
0830 ET Aug Canadian industrial product prices expected –0.5% m/m, July –0.7% m/m. Aug raw materials price index expected –1.0%m/m, July +3.9% m/m.
Morning Quote Board Morning Quotes (ET) Last Chg %chg Updated
US Stock Futures
S&P (Globex) (Z7) 1539.80 -4.80 -0.31% 06:58:17
DJIA (CBOT) (Z7) 13963 -42 -0.30% 06:54:44
European Stocks
Europe DJ Stoxx 50 3810.00 -12.40 -0.32% 06:53:45
London UK FTSE Index 6432.40 -54.00 -0.83% 06:53:46
German Dax Index 7838.23 -15.56 -0.20% 06:53:49
French CAC 40 Index 5708.78 -24.59 -0.43% 07:08:30
Asian Stocks
Japan Nikkei Index 16786 -47 -0.28% 03:00:42
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27142 77 0.29% 04:01:30
China CSI 300 Index 5581 153 2.82% 03:01:06
Australian S&P 200 6567.8 29.7 0.45% 02:47:05
Singapore Str. Times 3706.23 -8.54 -0.23% 05:05:33
South Korea KOSPI 200 247.2 0.1 0.04% 02:01:26
US Interest Rates
10yr T-notes (CBT)(Z7) 109.145 0.025 0.07% 06:58:41
Cash 10yr T-note Price 101.175 0.025 0.08% 07:08:30
Cash 10yr T-note Yield 4.553 -0.010 -0.22% 07:08
5yr T-note (CBT)(Z7) 107.030 0.020 0.06% 06:54:26
Cash 5yr T-note Price 100.075 0.030 0.09% 07:04:31
Cash 5yr T-note Yield 4.197 -0.016 -0.37% 07:04
30-yr T-bond (CBT)(Z7) 111.15 0.04 0.11% 06:58:35
Cash 30yr T-bond Price 102.265 0.075 0.23% 07:07:01
Cash 30yr T-bond Yield 4.819 -0.015 -0.30% 07:06
Eurodollars (CME)(Z7) 95.200 0.005 0.01% 06:58:39
Eurodollars (CME)(H8) 95.560 0.015 0.02% 06:58:39
Asian & European Rates
10-yr JGBs (TSE) (Z7) 134.94 0.5 0.37% 02:00:00
EuroyenTibor(SGX)(Z7) 99.150 0.010 0.01% 06:22:38
Bunds (Eurex) (Z7) 112.56 0.29 0.26% 06:53:48
Euribor (Eurex) (Z7) 95.37 -0.01 -0.01% 06:22:03
UK Gilts (Liffe) (Z7) 106.71 0.2 0.19% 06:53:43
Short Stlg (Liffe) (Z7) 93.88 0.05 0.05% 06:53:46
Forex
US Dollar/Japanese Yen 115.32 -0.31 -0.26% 07:08:49
EuroFX / US Dollar 1.4188 0.0035 0.35% 07:08:48
SwissFranc/US Dollar 1.1700 -0.0037 -0.37% 07:08:48
British Pound (per USD) 2.0318 0.0043 0.43% 07:08:43
Canadian Dlr (perUSD) 0.9987 -0.0028 -0.28% 07:08:45
Yen (Globex) (Z7) 0.8756 0.0025 0.25% 06:57:54
Euro FX (Globex) (Z7) 1.4205 0.0023 0.16% 06:58:30
SwissFranc (Globex)(Z7) 0.8595 0.0016 0.19% 06:57:08
British Pound(Glbx)(Z7) 2.0269 0.0038 0.19% 06:58:42
Canadian$ (Globex)(Z7) 1.0018 0.0022 0.22% 06:55:39
Commodities
Gold (Comex) (Z7) 744.1 4.2 0.57% 06:38:45
Crude Oil (Nymex) (X7) 82.73 -0.15 -0.18% 06:37:37
Gasoline (Nymex) (X7) 206.16 -1.47 -0.71% 06:35:54
Heating Oil(Nymex)(X7) 225.59 -1.35 -0.59% 06:34:11
NaturalGas(Nymex)(X7) 6.98 0.061 0.88% 06:36:10
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Modifié le 30/9/2007 19:38
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>: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/09/27/bcngold127.xml&CMP=ILC-mostviewedbox
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WARNING:
Goldman Sachs tiptoeing into the bear camp
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 2:05am BST 28/09/2007
Goldman Sachs has abandoned its ultra-bullish view of the world economy, warning of a likely recession in Japan and mounting risks that US property slump could spread to parts of Europe.
In a new report, "The Global Economy Hits a Crunch", the US investment bank said it was no longer sure that Asia and Europe would be able to pick up the growth baton as America stumbled. It fears that turmoil is spreading beyond the debt markets to the factory floor.
"Much has changed since mid-July, when we wrote that 'the global economy continues to enjoy one of the strongest sustained expansion in modern history'. The mood in financial markets is clearly darker, and the economic data in the developed world is showing signs of wear," it said.
"Japan's recovery is tottering, with the chance of an outright recession having risen to nearly two in three," said the report, authored by chief economist Jim O'Neill.
It is an abrupt change of tack for the bank known as the "cheer leader" of the global boom. Until now Goldman has insisted that Asia and the developing world are strong enough to shrug off an American slowdown, allowing world growth to keep racing ahead without missing a step -- despite subprime woes.
Often overlooked, Japan remains the world's second biggest economy and top creditor with some $3,000bn in net foreign assets.
Output had already contracted an annual rate of 1.2pc in the second quarter before the credit crisis hit.
There has since been a surge in the yen as speculators unwind carry trade positions, leaving Japan's margin-trading housewives and grannies nursing big losses.
Wages have fallen for the last eight months in a row. They are now down 1.9pc from a year ago, threatening to pull the country back into deflation.
Goldman Sachs feared it was now "inevitable" that consumers would batten down the hatches for a while.
The bank said Europe is now so weak after a clutch of dire confidence surveys in Germany, Italy, France, and The Netherlands that any further rate rises by the European Central Bank are "off the table".
It expects the euro to fall back to $1.35 against the dollar over the next year, and sterling to tumble to $1.88 as the Bank of England pushes through three rate cuts.
The one bright spot is the 'BRIC' quartet of Brazil, Russia, India, and China, all still firing on four cylinders, if slowing slightly.
In a separate report, "Rising Risks to the Global Housing Market," it said that much of global system had succumbed to a property boom that is in some ways more stretched than in the US, with real (inflation-adjusted) house price rises of over 100pc in France, 60pc in Italy, 55pc in Canada, and 72pc in Australia since the late 1990s. The bubbles in Spain and and Ireland have been more extreme.
"Such a widespread housing boom has little precedent in modern history. In those markets where prices have run up the most, and rental yields have fallen dramatically, the risks of a housing correction are likely to have increased materially," said the note, by Peter Berezin.
"The wealth effect for housing is about twice as large as for equities, with consumption falling by about two cents in the short run for every $1 decline in home prices," he said.
He expects US house prices to drop 7pc in 2007 and another 7pc in 2008, as mortgage lenders shut off credit to chunks of the market. "The US is often a leading indicator for what happens in the rest of the world".
Mr Berezin said construction booms usually lead to housing busts lasting several years. Residential construction in the US reached 6.3pc of GDP at the peak of the bubble, the highest since the baby boom in the early 1950s.
In Spain, it has been even higher, averaging 8.7pc of GDP since 2003, and in Ireland it has exploded to 14.2pc, leaving a overhang of unsold property. House prices are already falling in Spain, where 98pc of mortgages are on floating rates that have roughly doubled since late 2005.
Property prices have dropped for the last four months in a row in Ireland.
Mr Berezin said the Goldman's "decoupling" thesis was based on the assumption that the US housing slump was a "country-specific-shock" that would not spill over into other economies. This was now in doubt.
"The spread of global credit risks has introduced a new potential transmission mechanism. If home prices in the key economies begin to fall, this will have an adverse effect on global growth," he said.
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/09/27/bcngold127.xml&CMP=ILC-mostviewedbox
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11 de 13
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Modifié le 28/9/2007 14:53
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from LARRY LEVIN @secretsoftraders.com , date 28 Sep 2007 14:01 , subject Secrets of Traders Newsletter and Trading Signals
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Worried???
Dear Trader,
It seems like everybody is worried about the same thing. Will the slowdown in the economy finally start hitting the stock market and the stock indexes? Because as we all know it hasn't happened yet.
If you've noticed we (almost on a daily basis) get bad news about the housing situation (eg. Merrill Lynch says they may have $4 billion in writedowns on bad loans and other credit type problems.) Also Crude Oil prices are at $82. Regardless this market sits very close to all time highs.
What does that tell us? The bulls are still in charge (maybe not as strongly as before) and this market recovers quite nicely.
My only complaint is the volume could be a little stronger, but remember today is the last day of the month and the last day of the quarter, so hopefully today the action will pick up! (But don't get your hopes up.)
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12 de 13
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Modifié le 28/9/2007 19:35
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La situation depuis 3 mois
http://mail.google.com/mail/?realattid=f_f74yr9hp&attid=0.1&disp=inline&view=att&th=1154d299f1fd0e2f
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13 de 13
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Modifié le 28/9/2007 19:35
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4:25 pm : The stock market proved to be resilient Thursday, finishing moderately higher in the face of mixed economic news and high oil prices. Weekly Initial Claims were surprisingly better than expected, while new home sales reached their lowest level in more than seven years.
The stock market opened on a high note, helped in part by a Wall Street Journal article that indicated J.C. Flowers, Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase are open to renegotiating their agreement to acquire student lender SLM Corp (SLM 49.12, +4.11).
suite... http://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/overview