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Modifié le 16/10/2007 10:11
artes
Messages postés: 1509 -
Membre depuis: 15/12/2006
src: http://commerzbank.zonebourse.com/wm/WarrantMatin215.pdf
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LA CLÔTURE DE WALL STREET
Wall Street a trébuché une heure après l'ouverture lundi et le Dow Jones a perdu jusqu'à 150Pts après 3 heures
de cotations, sous l'effet conjugué des mauvais résultats de Citigroup (et de prévisions alarmistes au sujet des
retombée du 'subprime' au 4ème trimestre), d'une flambée du pétrole qui a pulvérisé de nouveaux records (à
86,5$ sur le NYMEX), d'une situation géopolitique tendue à la frontière Turco-Irakienne (Kurdistan)... mais au
final, le Dow Jones n'a perdu que 0,77% (soit -108Pts), et le Nasdaq -0,9% à 2.780Pts.
Le quasi doublement de l'indice 'Empire-State' d'activite dans la région de New-York (de 14,7 à 28,8) n'a pas eu
d'impact sur l'évolution du cours des actions... ni sur celle du Dollar (retombé sous les 1,42/E).
L'explication réside dans la dernière déclaration du directeur général Fonds monétaire international
(prochainement à la retraite) Rodrigo Rato qui a surpris tout le monde en déclarant que 'le dollar est encore
surévalué et qu'il a encore de la marge pour se déprécier'.
Si le pétrole continue sa folle ascension (il grimpe sans discontinuer depuis 5 séances) en direction des 90$ le
baril, le billet vert pourrait bien pulvériser le plancher des 1,438/E.
Alan Greenspan a déclaré dans le même temps que la crise du 'subprime' n'avait pas finit de plomber la
croissance américaine.
Les opérateurs en ont déduit que les banques n'en avaient pas fini avec les créances douteuses, que les
promoteurs n'étaient pas près de revoir affluer les candidats à l'achat d'une nouvelle maison, que les clients
risquaient de serrer les budgets pour les achats de Noël.
Il s'en est suivi une forte chute collective de Pulte Homes (-4,8%), KB Homes (-4,3%), Lehman ou DR Horton
(-3,7%), Lehman Brothers (-3,6%), Citigroup et Capital One (-3,4%), Simon Prop, Mellon Bank (-3,1%), Wynn
Resort (-2,8%), Merril Lynch (-2,1%)... puis de Sears et Ross Stores (-3%).
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2 de 8
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Modifié le 16/10/2007 10:23
artes
Messages postés: 1509 -
Membre depuis: 15/12/2006
src: from Larry Levin , date 16 Oct 2007 02:52 , subject Secrets of Traders Newsletter and Trading Signals
===========================
Is it Time to Rotate Lower?
Dear Trader,
Do you know what pushed the market lower today? Well if you listen to the news they will tell you higher oil prices are to blame. But you know what?
It's not oil prices, and it's not concern that the Fed is not going to lower interest rates. The real reason is this market is simply running out of buyers for right now.
This market is due for a push to lower prices and here's how I know that's true:
In the S&P pit the last several days I've seen the same thing. Every time we move lower, we get big institutional buying taking place.
Now that buying doesn't always push the market higher, but never the less it's still coming in the pit.
But it's not holding up and we are starting to "rotate" lower. This tells me the market is slowly running out of buyers and we need to test some lower prices before we can pick the rally back up. Keep an eye on 1550 in the S&P futures contract and see if we stay below it for a little while.
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3 de 8
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16/10/2007 10:26
artes
Messages postés: 1509 -
Membre depuis: 15/12/2006
pour rappel (de lien) en anglais.. : http://www.secretsoftraders.com/ValueAreaHelpGuide.htm
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4 de 8
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16/10/2007 10:43
artes
Messages postés: 1509 -
Membre depuis: 15/12/2006
src: http://djinnn.virtualtraders.info/
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16/10/2007 06:00 EUR German CPI m/m (r) 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%
16/10/2007 07:15 CHF Retail Sales y/y 3.8% 4.0% 3.3%
16/10/2007 08:30 GBP RPI y/y 4.0% 4.1%
16/10/2007 08:30 GBP CPI y/y 1.9% 1.8%
16/10/2007 08:30 GBP Core CPI y/y 1.8% 1.8%
16/10/2007 09:00 EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment -24.5 -20.3
16/10/2007 09:00 EUR CPI m/m (r) 0.4% 0.1%
16/10/2007 09:00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment -22.0 -18.1
16/10/2007 12:30 CAD Manufacturing Shipments m/m -0.9% 2.3%
16/10/2007 13:00 CAD Interest Rate Statement 4.50% 4.50%
16/10/2007 13:00 USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 60.0B 19.2B
16/10/2007 13:15 USD Capacity Utilization Rate 82.2% 82.2%
16/10/2007 13:15 USD Industrial Production m/m 0.1% 0.2%
16/10/2007 15:00 USD Treasury Secretary Paulson Speaks
16/10/2007 17:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index 19 20
16/10/2007 23:50 JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index m/m 1.0% -0.5%
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Voir également :
(Cliquer Ici)
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5 de 8
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16/10/2007 10:54
artes
Messages postés: 1509 -
Membre depuis: 15/12/2006
From SAXO BANK
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Calendar
Today's Highlights:
Time (GMT) Region Release Consensus
07:15 SZ Adjusted Real Retail Sales (Aug) 4.1%
08:30 UK CPI MoM/YoY (Sep) 0.3%/1.9%
08:30 UK Core CPI YoY (Sep) 1.8%
08:30 UK Retail Price Index (Sep) 208.0
08:30 UK RPI MoM/YoY (Sep) 0.4%/4.0%
08:30 UK RPI Ex Mort. Int. Payments (Sep) 2.8%
09:00 GE ZEW Survey Econ. Sentiment/ Current Situation (Oct) -22.3/70.0
09:00 E-Z ZEW Survey Econ. Sentiment (Oct) -25.0
09:00 E-Z Euro-Zone CPI MoM/YoY (Sep) 0.4%/2.1%
09:00 E-Z Euro-Zone CPI Core YoY (Sep) 1.9%
12:30 CA Manufacturing Shipments MoM (Aug) -1.0%
13:00 US Net Long-term TIC Flows/Total Net TIC Flows (Aug) $60.0B/$65.0B
13:00 CA Bank of Canada Rate (Oct 16) 4.50% (Unchanged)
13:15 US Industrial Production (Sep) 0.1%
13:15 US Capacity Utilization (Sep) 82.1%
17:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index (Oct) 19
21:00 US ABC Consumer Confidence (Oct 14)
23:50 JN Tertiary Industry Index (Aug) 1.0%
This and Next Week’s Highlights:
Date Region Release
17 Oct JN Economic Index, Machine Tool Orders
17 Oct UK Claimant Count Rate, Jobless Claims Change
17 Oct US CPI, Housing Starts, Building Permits, DOE Inventories, Beige Book
17 Oct CA Wholesale Sales
18 Oct SZ Trade Balance
18 Oct SW Unemployment Rate
18 Oct UK Retail Sales, Public Finances, M4 Money Supply
18 Oct E-Z Trade Balance, Construction Output
18 Oct US Jobless Claims, Leading Indicators, Philly Fed
19 Oct AU Import Price Index, New Motor Vehicle Sales
19 Oct GE Producer Prices
19 Oct UK GDP
19 Oct CA A string of CPI figures
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What's going on?
The US stocks suffered biggest losses in 5 weeks after Citigroup announced credit defaults would continue to harm the financial industry for the rest of the year.
Then yen was lower on Tuesday’s trading as falling Asian equities curbed demand for carry trades and riskier investments. TRYJPY is trading firmly below 96, a correction of about 4% from Friday highs.
Crude oil added to its earlier gains amidst higher world energy demand, geopolitical concerns and weaker dollar. The November WTI contract set a high of $86.79 on Tuesday morning and is trading very near that price.
Boosted by high crude oil prices, gold prices continue to surge. On Tuesday’s trading, the gold future for December delivery has already hit a high of $766.40 an ounce.
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6 de 8
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16/10/2007 11:28
artes
Messages postés: 1509 -
Membre depuis: 15/12/2006
Pour ceux qui souhaitent des outils plus performants, comme les cours en overnight :
QQes tickers :
SPY c'est le SPX, :
DIA, le dow -
IWM le russell -
Voir ainsi en pré-market les différences de cours, par rapport au graphe.
qqqq le Nasdaq 100
http://www.tradingday.com/d/after_hours_trading.html
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7 de 8
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Modifié le 16/10/2007 11:59
artes
Messages postés: 1509 -
Membre depuis: 15/12/2006
src: http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/16/markets/stockswatch/index.htm?postversion=2007101605-
Bears back in control
Stock futures much weaker after Bernanke makes no clear signal about future Fed policy; oil prices climb to new trading high.
October 16 2007: 5:27 AM EDT
LONDON (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stock futures were weaker Tuesday after Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke offered no hints about future rate policy and as oil prices soared to fresh highs.
Bernanke said in a speech Monday night that the Fed's rate cut in September has shown signs of success, but he made no indication about whether the central bank plans to keep lowering rates.
He also issued a warning to Wall Street, saying the central bank can't "insulate investors from risk" and said weakness in the housing market would likely drag on growth through early next year.
Adding to investor woes, crude prices jumped above $86 to set a new trading high in Asia. The front-month contract climbed more than $2 to close at a record $86.13 in New York on Monday.
Meanwhile, a rescue plan for mortgage debt announced by big Wall Street banks on Monday raised worries that there is worse to come in the credit markets.
A combination of slower economic growth, record-high oil prices and tightening credit could crimp corporate profits.
A batch of earnings are due this week. Johnson & Johnson (Charts, Fortune 500), Wells Fargo (Charts, Fortune 500), IBM (Charts, Fortune 500) and Yahoo (Charts, Fortune 500) are all slated to post quarterly results on Tuesday.
Among stocks to watch, biotech Genentech (Charts) reported a jump in quarterly profit late Monday, narrowly exceeding Wall Street's estimates.
A senior Chinese official also confirmed that China Citic Bank is bidding for a stake in U.S. brokerage Bear Stearns (Charts, Fortune 500).
On the economic front, reports on industrial production and capacity utilization are due to be released.
In global trade, markets in Asia finished the session lower, and European stocks retreated in early trading.
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8 de 8
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16/10/2007 12:02
artes
Messages postés: 1509 -
Membre depuis: 15/12/2006
a> http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/15/news/economy/bernanke_speech/index.htm?postversion=2007101522
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Bernanke has warning for Wall Street
In a speech in New York, the Fed chairman said the central bank's big interest rate cut last month has helped but that the Fed can't 'insulate investors from risk.'
October 15 2007: 10:24 PM EDT
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- In a speech to the New York Economic Club Monday night, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank's rate cut in September has shown signs of success, but cautioned that lenders and investors must bear responsibility for financial decisions that caused the subprime mortgage meltdown.
"Although the Federal Reserve can seek to provide a more stable economic background that will benefit both investors and non-investors, the truth is that it can hardly insulate investors from risk, even if it wished to do so," Bernanke said, adding that "over the past few months...those who made bad investment decisions lost money."
The Fed slashed the federal funds rate, a key short-term interest rate that impacts rates on consumer loans, by a half of a percentage point on September 18. Bernanke said the rate cut, combined with an earlier cut to the symbolic discount rate in August, helped to "reduce some of the pressure in financial markets" and that "the improved functioning of financial markets is a positive development."
Behind the Citigroup rescue
Bernanke also said that the weakness in the housing market "is likely to be a significant drag on growth in the current quarter and through early next year."
But he hinted that it may not get that much worse and that investors and lenders may have learned from their mistakes. He did not specifically mention a plan unveiled Monday by a group of big banks to create a fund to buy mortgage-backed securities in his prepared remarks, however.
"Rather than becoming more crisis-prone, the financial system is likely to emerge from this episode healthier and more stable than before," he said.
But during a question and answer session following his speech, Bernanke said it will take a while for investors to appropriately value subprime and jumbo mortgages.
Investors looking for a sign that the Fed may cut rates again at the conclusion of a two-day meeting on October 31 may be disappointed though. He indicated that the Fed "was prepared to reverse the policy easing if inflation pressures proved stronger than expected."
He added during the question and answer period that the Fed may need to make sacrifices in order to ensure the long-term health of the economy. "Using monetary policy is very difficult," he said.
Bernanke also brushed off concerns about a weak dollar prompting inflation. When David Malpass, chief economist at Bear Stearns, asked Bernanke if he thought the value of the dollar impacts inflation, Bernanke said he did not think a fixed exchange rate would be good for the economy.
Wall Street banks try to stave off debt shock
Fed explains the big rate cut
Did the Fed go too far?
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-
LA CLÔTURE DE WALL STREET
Wall Street a trébuché une heure après l'ouverture lundi et le Dow Jones a perdu jusqu'à 150Pts après 3 heures
de cotations, sous l'effet conjugué des mauvais résultats de Citigroup (et de prévisions alarmistes au sujet des
retombée du 'subprime' au 4ème trimestre), d'une flambée du pétrole qui a pulvérisé de nouveaux records (à
86,5$ sur le NYMEX), d'une situation géopolitique tendue à la frontière Turco-Irakienne (Kurdistan)... mais au
final, le Dow Jones n'a perdu que 0,77% (soit -108Pts), et le Nasdaq -0,9% à 2.780Pts.
Le quasi doublement de l'indice 'Empire-State' d'activite dans la région de New-York (de 14,7 à 28,8) n'a pas eu
d'impact sur l'évolution du cours des actions... ni sur celle du Dollar (retombé sous les 1,42/E).
L'explication réside dans la dernière déclaration du directeur général Fonds monétaire international
(prochainement à la retraite) Rodrigo Rato qui a surpris tout le monde en déclarant que 'le dollar est encore
surévalué et qu'il a encore de la marge pour se déprécier'.
Si le pétrole continue sa folle ascension (il grimpe sans discontinuer depuis 5 séances) en direction des 90$ le
baril, le billet vert pourrait bien pulvériser le plancher des 1,438/E.
Alan Greenspan a déclaré dans le même temps que la crise du 'subprime' n'avait pas finit de plomber la
croissance américaine.
Les opérateurs en ont déduit que les banques n'en avaient pas fini avec les créances douteuses, que les
promoteurs n'étaient pas près de revoir affluer les candidats à l'achat d'une nouvelle maison, que les clients
risquaient de serrer les budgets pour les achats de Noël.
Il s'en est suivi une forte chute collective de Pulte Homes (-4,8%), KB Homes (-4,3%), Lehman ou DR Horton
(-3,7%), Lehman Brothers (-3,6%), Citigroup et Capital One (-3,4%), Simon Prop, Mellon Bank (-3,1%), Wynn
Resort (-2,8%), Merril Lynch (-2,1%)... puis de Sears et Ross Stores (-3%).