TransGlobe Energy Corporation (“TransGlobe” or the “Company”)
announces it has reached an agreement with the Egyptian General
Petroleum Corporation (“EGPC”) to merge the Company’s three
existing Eastern Desert concessions (the West Gharib, West Bakr and
North West Gharib concessions) into a new modernized concession
agreement (the “Merged Concession” or “Agreement”). The Agreement
is subject to the usual Egyptian Parliamentary ratification and the
satisfaction of other closing conditions. All dollar values are
expressed in US dollars unless otherwise stated.
KEY ELEMENTS
OF THE MERGED CONCESSION
-
The West Gharib, West Bakr, and North West Gharib concessions,
including all existing development leases within these concessions,
will be merged into the Merged Concession with a new 15-year
development term and a 5-year extension option.
- Modernized financial concession terms promote increased
investment and implementation of new technology in the mature
fields through: - Improved cost recovery terms
to support continued investment in higher-cost mature fields.
- Production sharing terms scaled to oil prices to
support TransGlobe’s returns during lower oil prices and government
returns during higher oil prices. - Improved
netbacks and increased cash flows are expected to fund new
investments in incremental recovery projects.
• Near-term operational netbacks (revenue less
royalties, taxes and operating expenses) are estimated to improve
by the following ranges relative to Brent pricing assuming current
production levels, operating costs and historical differentials to
Brent:
Brent Oil Price ($/bbl) |
Netback Increase ($/bbl) |
$40 |
~$5 to $7 |
$50 |
~$7 to $9 |
$60 |
~$9 to $11 |
- Modernized
terms are to be applied from the February 2020 effective date of
the Merged Concession.
-
Incremental, internally estimated, Company Gross risked best
estimate Economic Contingent Resource volume of 59.1 million
barrels oil (Company Contingent Resources are separate from Company
reserves; please see Advisory Regarding Oil and Gas Information
later in this release).
-
Subject to final ratification, the Company will pay EGPC a
signature bonus and an equalization (or modernization) payment in
installments. The Company anticipates that the equalization payment
and signature bonus will be funded from existing resources and
expected improved cash flows. - The equalization
payment compensates EGPC for the improved fiscal terms on the
underlying base forecasted production. - An
initial equalization payment of $15 million and signature bonus of
$1 million are due on ratification, with five further annual
equalization payments of $10 million each being made over five
years (beginning February 1, 2022 until February 1, 2026).
-
Minimum financial work commitments of $50 million per each
five-year period of the primary development term, commencing on the
February 1, 2020 effective date. All investments which exceed the
five-year minimum $50 million threshold will carry forward to
offset against subsequent five-year commitments.
- For context, the Company’s average annual capital
expenditures in Egypt over the last five full calendar years has
been greater than $30 million per year, and the Company expects to
fund these future investments from existing resources and future
cash flows.
-
Merge the existing Joint Venture Operating Companies’ (Dara
Petroleum Company, West Bakr Petroleum Company and North West
Gharib Petroleum Company) assets, facilities, and infrastructure
into a new Joint Venture Operating Company in order to
substantially increase operational efficiencies.
PRESIDENT AND CEO COMMENTS
Randy Neely, President and CEO stated, “After a
lengthy and constructive negotiation, I believe we have arrived at
an incredible win-win amendment for both TransGlobe and EGPC. The
efficiencies gained from the consolidation of our Eastern Desert
concessions, along with the improved netbacks and extended term,
are expected to provide TransGlobe with the fiscal incentive and
time to unlock meaningful additional reserves and production
through the application of modern technology and optimization of
infrastructure. This will also allow us to move forward with
important ESG initiatives to improve our environmental footprint as
well as continue to be a major employer in the Ras Gharib region
for the foreseeable future.
We intend to continue to manage the finances of
the Company with a conservative approach and expect that, under a
reasonable range of oil prices, the Company will be able to fund
the equalization payments and a continuous capital investment
program from existing resources and cash flows. In addition, as
soon as practicable, direct returns to our shareholders will be
prioritized.
This Agreement is a critical first step in
achieving our stated goal of becoming a leading independent Middle
East/North Africa region cashflow-focused energy producer. The
Merged Concession will provide the platform to allow us to increase
our efforts on completing complementary mergers and acquisitions to
further support this objective.
We appreciate the commitment and vision of the
leadership team at EGPC to extending the life of these mature oil
fields and we look forward to working closely with them to realize
the significant mutual benefits of this Merged Concession. In the
immediate future we will begin to plan for increased activities
that should in the near to medium term arrest and reverse recent
production declines.”
BACKGROUND TO THE AGREEMENT
In 2017, H.E. Eng. Tarek El Molla (Minister of
Petroleum & Minerals) announced a Modernization Initiative to
try to increase oil production and reserves by 20% from existing
oil pools (brownfields). Since that time, TransGlobe and EGPC have
been discussing ways in which TransGlobe could increase recoveries
and production from its existing producing fields and have worked
extensively to evaluate various modernization fiscal structures to
provide a framework for continued brownfield investment in
TransGlobe’s Eastern Desert concessions.
Encouraged by the Ministry’s Modernization
Initiative and positive discussions with EGPC, the Company
identified a number of enhanced recovery and infrastructure
efficiency projects targeting incremental oil recovery from
existing pools in the concessions. Concurrently, the Company
initiated detailed static and dynamic reservoir modeling of several
of the larger pools to evaluate enhanced recovery strategies.
Additional detail regarding these and other Contingent Resources
disclosed in this news release are available below under “Advisory
Regarding Oil and Gas Information”.
The existing concessions are comprised of 10
development leases, which include a number of development leases
approaching the end of their primary terms in the next few years.
All of the existing development leases (each with a 20-year primary
term) have a 5-year extension available, however future investment
under the existing concessions is challenged due to limited
remaining tenure on some of the key development leases, and their
fiscal terms. These factors, combined with the prevailing lower oil
prices and higher operating costs associated with mature oil
fields, made future capital investments very challenging. All 10
existing development leases are included in the Merged
Concession.
SIGNIFICANT MUTUAL BENEFITS
The modernized fiscal terms and extended
investment horizon provide the necessary incentives and fiscal
framework to support increased investment to recover additional oil
volumes in the mid-term expected Brent oil price environment of
$40-$60/bbl.
New investable projects will target a Company
Gross risked best estimate incremental 59.1 million barrels of
Economic (Development Pending/ On Hold and Development Unclarified)
Contingent Resources through drilling, increased operating
efficiencies and the application of new technologies over the 20
year term (15 year primary + a 5 year option period). These
Contingent Resources are separate from our existing Proved plus
Probable reserve base in the eastern desert which were estimated at
26.3 million barrels of oil (23.6 MMbbl heavy oil and 2.7 MMbbl
light/medium oil) at 12/31/2019.
Investable projects are expected to arrest the
historical production declines (~22% per year) and provide a stable
production and cash flow base for the next five+ years with
potential to grow and extend the life of existing fields. To date,
of the 59.1 million barrels of risked Contingent Resources noted
above, the Company has technically matured a Company Gross risked
best estimate incremental 20.5 million barrels of Development
Pending/ On Hold Contingent Resources from the Arta Nukhul,
K-Field, and H-Field pools based on their respective dynamic
modelling, the Merged Concession terms, and an estimated future
capital investment of ~$125 million. With this
announcement, the Company will prioritize the Arta Nukhul, H-Field,
and K-Field pools’ resource maturation projects, which are expected
to commence as soon as reasonably practicable. See “Advisory
Regarding Oil and Gas Information” below for additional
details.
Consolidation of the three concessions is
expected to generate additional efficiencies through consolidation
of the existing joint venture operating companies, optimized
utilization of existing infrastructure, and future infrastructure
investments.
In addition, the merged workforce of the
existing joint venture operating companies provides the Company and
EGPC with an opportunity to train, develop, and deploy an
integrated workforce with enhanced operating capabilities to
develop and operate other brownfields in the future.
The Merged Concession is expected to provide
further incentive for the transfer of technologies, through
horizontal drilling with multi-staged completions, routinely
employed in our Canadian operations, possible tertiary recovery
techniques, and also the opportunity to pursue a number of
infrastructure investments to increase operating
efficiencies.
In accordance with the Company’s ESG
initiatives, the Company has identified several infrastructure
investment projects such as displacing diesel power generation in
the field with reliable power from the national power grid which
are expected to increase efficiencies, reduce operating costs, and
significantly reduce GHG emissions. The national power grid has
been expanded throughout the merged area, including connection to
the substantial, new renewable wind power projects in the
region.
Significant additional benefits are expected to
accrue to Egypt, the Red Sea Governorate and the city of Ras Gharib
through additional investments, operating costs, and the associated
employment of the local workforce necessary to extend the life of
the existing fields.
TransGlobe Energy has posted a Merged Concession
presentation to our website (www.trans-globe.com) and will be
hosting a webcast and conference call to discuss the announcement
further. Details of the webcast will be provided in a separate
announcement.
About TransGlobe
TransGlobe Energy Corporation is a
cashflow-focused oil and gas exploration and development company
whose current activities are concentrated in the Arab Republic of
Egypt and Canada. TransGlobe’s common shares trade on the Toronto
Stock Exchange and the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange
under the symbol TGL and on the NASDAQ Exchange under the symbol
TGA.
For Further information, please contact:
TransGlobe Energy CorporationRandy Neely,
President and CEOEddie Ok, CFO |
+1 403 264
9888investor.relations@trans-globe.comhttp://www.trans-globe.comor
via Tailwind Associates or FTI Consulting |
Tailwinds Associates (Investor
Relations)Darren Engels |
+1 403 618
8035darren@tailwindassociates.cahttp://www.tailwindassociates.ca |
FTI Consulting (Financial PR)Ben
BrewertonGenevieve Ryan |
+44(0) 20 3727 1000transglobeenergy@fticonsulting.com |
Canaccord Genuity (Nomad & Joint-Broker)Henry
Fitzgerald-O’ConnorJames Asensio |
+44(0) 20 7523 8000 |
Shore Capital (Joint Broker)Jerry KeenToby
Gibbs |
+44(0) 20 7408 409 |
Advisory Regarding Oil and Gas Information
TransGlobe completed an internal evaluation of
the Contingent Resources (the "Contingent Resource Evaluation")
attributed to the pools included in the Company's existing 10
development leases based on the new terms and conditions of the
Merged Concession (the "Evaluated Areas") which remains subject to
ratification and satisfaction of certain other closing conditions.
TransGlobe's wholly-owned subsidiaries have a 100% working interest
in the existing development leases and related concession
agreements covering the Evaluated Areas and would maintain that
level of interest upon ratification of the Merged Concession. The
Evaluated Areas are located onshore in Egypt's Eastern Desert. The
Contingent Resources Evaluation is effective September 30, 2020 and
has been prepared by a member of TransGlobe's management who is a
qualified reserves evaluator in accordance with the procedures and
standards contained in the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation (“COGE”)
Handbook.
Contingent
Resources should not be confused with
reserves. Readers should review
the definitions and notes set forth below. Actual resources may be
greater than or less than the estimates provided herein. There is
uncertainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any
portion of the resources.
Gross Contingent Resources are the
Company’s working interest share before the deduction of
royalties. Net Contingent Resources in Egypt
include the Company’s share of future cost recovery and production
sharing oil, and Contingent Resources relating to income
taxes. Under this method, a portion of the
reported Contingent Resources will increase as oil prices decrease
and vice versa as the barrels necessary to achieve cost recovery
change with prevailing oil prices.
Summary of Risked
Best Estimate Contingent
Resources for the Evaluated Areas
as of September
30, 2020
|
Best Estimate Risked
Contingent Resources (1) |
Project Maturity
Sub-Class |
Heavy crude
oil |
Gross
(MMbbl) |
Net
(MMbbl) |
Development Pending / On Hold |
20.5 |
13.4 |
Development Unclarified |
38.6 |
22.8 |
Total Economic Contingent Resources |
59.1 |
36.2 |
Development Not Viable |
2.1 |
1.3 |
(1) Refer to “Resource Definitions” below for
detailed definitions of Contingent Resources.
The estimated cost to bring on commercial
production from the Development Pending / On Hold Contingent
Resources is approximately $125 million (discounted at 10 percent
is approximately $81.2 million), and the expected timeline to bring
these resources onto production ranges from one to three years
depending on the Evaluated Area. TransGlobe's Development Pending /
On Hold Contingent Resources represent development projects within
the Evaluated Areas for which specific development plans have been
made. These resources are expected to be recovered using the same
conventional development technology that TransGlobe has already
proven to be effective in the Evaluated Areas, supplemented by some
horizontal well drilling and multi-stage stimulation that the
Company has successfully deployed in Canada.
Contingent Resources
Chance of Commerciality
The Evaluated Areas with Contingent Resources
were risked for the chance of commerciality (“CoC”), which is
defined as follows:
CoC = chance of development (“CoDev”) × chance of
discovery (“CoD”) |
|
wherein CoD
for Contingent Resources is equal to one for all Contingent
Resources. |
The chance of development is the estimated
probability that, once discovered, a known accumulation will be
commercially developed. Five factors have been considered in
determining the CoDev as follows:
CoDev = Ps (Economic Factor) × Ps (Technology
Factor) × Ps (Development Plan Factor) × Ps (Development Timeframe
Factor) × Ps (Other Contingency Factor) |
|
wherein Ps is
the probability of success |
The five factors were assessed for each of the
Evaluated Areas. The following factors were assessed for
TransGlobe's Contingent Resources to be sub-classified and
considered as Development Pending/ On Hold Contingent Resources,
Development Unclarified Contingent Resources or Development Not
Viable Contingent Resources:
- Economic Factor: For Development Pending/ On Hold the
associated development projects had robust economics (i.e., strong
rate of returns), and as such were assigned a factor of 0.9 to 1.0.
The remaining Contingent Resources sub-classes have factors ranging
from 0.6 to 1.00. The Contingent Resource Evaluation is based on
the October 1, 2020 forecast pricing and inflation published by GLJ
Petroleum Consultants Ltd., independent petroleum consultants,
shown in the following table:
Year |
Brent Reference Price($US/bbl)
(1) |
Inflation
Rate(%/yr)
(2) |
2020 Q4 |
44.00 |
0.00 |
2021 |
46.75 |
1.00 |
2022 |
51.00 |
2.00 |
2023 |
56.50 |
2.00 |
2024 |
60.00 |
2.00 |
2025 |
62.95 |
2.00 |
2026 |
64.13 |
2.00 |
2027 |
65.33 |
2.00 |
2028 |
66.56 |
2.00 |
2029 |
67.81 |
2.00 |
2030+ |
+2.0%/yr thereafter |
2.00%/yr thereafter |
(1) Price forecast is GLJ
forecast from Oct 1,
2020(2) Inflation rates for
forecasting expenditure prices and costs
- Technology Factor: Much of TransGlobe’s Contingent Resources
will be developed utilizing established technology, therefore, a
technology factor of 0.8 to 1.0 is utilized for all resource
Contingent Resources sub-classes. A lower factor here took into
account potential operational risks associated with horizontal,
multi-stage stimulated wells.
- Development Plan Factor: Development plans and costs were
prepared and are in place. This factor ranges from 0.85 to 0.9 for
Development Pending/ On Hold Contingent Resources. For the
remaining Contingent Resources sub-classes, the Development Plan
Factors range from 0.70 to 0.75 based on the level of detail.
- Development Timeframe Factor: Several core areas within the
Evaluated Areas have portions of the Petroleum Initially-in-Place
(“PIIP”) volume developed and producing, with proved and probable
reserves assigned. Timing for the Contingent Resources portions of
these projects will depend on the pace of continued development
(including allocation of funds), available throughput capacity in
existing facilities, or construction of additional facilities.
Development Pending/ On Hold projects have been assigned
Development Timeframe Factors of 1.0 reflecting a high level of
certainty in timing estimates and intent by TransGlobe to invest in
these projects in the near term. For the remaining Contingent
Resources sub-classes, the Timeframe Factors assigned range from
0.70 to 0.90.
- Other Contingency Factor: For reserves to be assessed, all
contingencies must be eliminated. With respect to Contingent
Resources, this factor captures major contingencies, usually beyond
the control of TransGlobe, other than those captured by economic
status, technology status, project evaluation scenario status and
the development timeframe. The Other Contingency Factor has been
assessed as 1.0 for all Contingent Resources sub-classes.
These factors may be inter-related, and care has
been taken to ensure that risks are appropriately accounted for.
The following table summarizes the Chance of Commerciality applied
to Contingent Resources based on the factors assessed.
Summary of Chance of Commerciality of Best Estimate Contingent
Resources for the Evaluated Areas as of September 30, 2020:
Chance of Commerciality
and Best Estimate
Contingent Resources
[(1)(2)] |
|
Chance of Commerciality |
Best estimate unrisked |
Best estimate risked |
Heavy Crude Oil
(MMbbl) |
Development Pending/ On Hold Contingent Resources |
85 |
% |
24.0 |
20.5 |
Development Unclarified Contingent Resources |
60 |
% |
65.1 |
38.6 |
Total Economic
Contingent Resources |
- |
|
89.1 |
59.1 |
Development Not Viable Contingent Resources |
26 |
% |
8.0 |
2.1 |
(1) All volumes listed in
the table are Company Gross.(2) Refer to
“Resource Definitions” below for detailed definitions of Contingent
Resources
Risks and Significant Positive and Negative
Factors
Continuous development through multi-year
development programs and significant levels of future capital
expenditures are required in order for Contingent Resources to be
recovered in the future. The principal risks that would inhibit the
recovery of additional resources relate to the potential for
variations in the quality of the Evaluated Areas formation where
minimal well data currently exists, access to the capital which
would be required to develop the resources, low crude oil prices
that would curtail the economics of development, the future
performance of wells, regulatory approvals, access to the required
services at the appropriate cost, access to market and the
effectiveness of stimulation technology and applications.
Furthermore, it should be understood that
Contingent Resources estimates reflect data as of the date of the
Contingent Resources Evaluation. Although only best estimates are
reported, it should be understood that there is a significant
degree of uncertainty in these estimates. Additional data may
justify upward or downward revisions to the estimates, which in
turn would impact the Contingent Resources estimates.
Contingencies
In the Evaluated Areas, the primary
contingencies that prevent the Contingent Resources from being
classified as reserves are the development of firm plans, including
timing, infrastructure, and the commitment of capital, and, in some
cases, the verification of commercial production rates. As
continued delineation occurs, and plans are firmed up, some
Contingent Resources are expected to be re-classified to
reserves.
Projects have been defined to develop the
resources in the Evaluated Areas for the Development Pending/ On
Hold Contingent Resources at the evaluation date. Such projects, in
the case of the Evaluated Areas, have historically been developed
sequentially over a number of drilling seasons and are subject to
annual budget constraints, TransGlobe's policy of orderly
development on a staged basis, TransGlobe's short-term and
long-term view of crude oil prices, and the results of development
activities in the area.
Resource Definitions
The following are excerpts from the definitions of resources and
reserves, contained in Section 5 of the COGE Handbook, which is
referenced by the Canadian Securities Administrators in “National
Instrument 51-101 Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas
Activities”.
(a) Fundamental Resource
Definitions
Contingent Resources are those
quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be
potentially recoverable from known accumulations using established
technology or technology under development, but which are not
currently considered to be commercially recoverable due to one or
more contingencies. Contingencies may include factors such as
economic, legal, environmental, political, and regulatory matters,
or a lack of markets. It is also appropriate to classify as
Contingent Resources the estimated discovered recoverable
quantities associated with a project in the early evaluation stage.
Contingent Resources are further classified in accordance with the
level of certainty associated with the estimates and may be
subclassified based on project maturity and/or characterized by
their economic status.
(b) Uncertainty Categories for Resource
Estimates
The range of uncertainty of estimated
recoverable volumes may be represented by either deterministic
scenarios or by a probability distribution. Resources should be
provided as low, best, and high estimates as follows:
Low Estimate: This is
considered to be a conservative estimate of the quantity that will
actually be recovered. It is likely that the actual remaining
quantities recovered will exceed the low estimate. If probabilistic
methods are used, there should be at least a 90 per cent
probability (P90) that the quantities actually recovered will equal
or exceed the low estimate.
Best Estimate: This is
considered to be the best estimate of the quantity that will
actually be recovered. It is equally likely that the actual
remaining quantities recovered will be greater or less than the
best estimate. If probabilistic methods are used, there should be
at least a 50 per cent probability (P50) that the quantities
actually recovered will equal or exceed the best estimate.
High Estimate: This is
considered to be an optimistic estimate of the quantity that will
actually be recovered. It is unlikely that the actual remaining
quantities recovered will exceed the high estimate. If
probabilistic methods are used, there should be at least a 10 per
cent probability (P10) that the quantities actually recovered will
equal or exceed the high estimate.
This approach to describing uncertainty may be
applied to reserves, Contingent Resources and prospective
resources. There may be significant risk that sub-commercial and
undiscovered accumulations will not achieve commercial production.
However, it is useful to consider and identify the range of
potentially recoverable quantities independently of such risk.
(c) Discovered and Commercial Status and
Risks Associated with Resource Estimates Discovery
Status
Total petroleum initially-in-place is first
subdivided based on the discovery status of a petroleum
accumulation. Discovered PIIP, production, reserves, and Contingent
Resources are associated with known accumulations. Recognition as a
known accumulation requires that the accumulation be penetrated by
a well and have evidence of the existence of petroleum. The COGE
Handbook Consolidated 3rd Edition, Section 1.4.7.2.1.2, provides
additional clarification regarding drilling and testing
requirements relating to recognition of known accumulations. On the
other hand, Prospective resources is undiscovered PIIP which is
associated with accumulations yet to be discovered.
Commercial Status
Commercial status differentiates reserves from
Contingent Resources. The following outlines the criteria that
should be considered in determining commerciality:
- economic viability of the related development project;
- a reasonable expectation that there will be a market for the
expected sales quantities of production required to justify
development;
- evidence that the necessary production and transportation
facilities are available or can be made available;
- evidence that legal, contractual, environmental, governmental,
and other social and economic concerns will allow for the actual
implementation of the recovery project being evaluated;
- a reasonable expectation that all required internal and
external approvals will be forthcoming. Evidence of this may
include items such as signed contracts, budget approvals, and
approvals for expenditures, etc.;
- evidence to support a reasonable timetable for development. A
reasonable time frame for the initiation of development depends on
the specific circumstances and varies according to the scope of the
project. While five years is recommended as a maximum time frame
for classification of a project as commercial, a longer time frame
could be applied where, for example, development of economic
projects are deferred at the option of the producer for, among
other things, market-related reasons or to meet contractual or
strategic objectives.
Commercial Risk Applicable to Resource
Estimates
Estimates of recoverable quantities are stated
in terms of the sales products derived from a development program,
assuming commercial development. It must be recognized that
reserves and Contingent Resources involve different risks
associated with achieving commerciality. The likelihood that a
project will achieve commerciality is referred to as the “chance of
commerciality.” The chance of commerciality varies in different
categories of recoverable resources as follows:
Reserves: To be classified as
reserves, estimated recoverable quantities must be associated with
a project(s) that has demonstrated commercial viability. Under the
fiscal conditions applied in the estimation of reserves, the chance
of commerciality is effectively 100 percent.
Contingent Resources: Not all
technically feasible development plans will be commercial. The
commercial viability of a development project is dependent on the
forecast of fiscal conditions over the life of the project. For
Contingent Resources the risk component relating to the likelihood
that an accumulation will be commercially developed is referred to
as the “chance of development.” For Contingent Resources the chance
of commerciality is equal to the chance of development.
(d) Recovery Technology Status
Established Technology: A
recovery method that has been proven to be successful in commercial
applications in the subject reservoir and is a prerequisite for
assigning reserves.
Technology under Development: A
recovery process that has been determined to be technically viable
via field test and is being field tested further to determine its
economic viability in the subject reservoir. Contingent Resources
may be assigned if the project provides information that is
sufficient and of a quality to meet the requirements for this
resource class.
Experimental Technology: A
technology that is being field tested to determine the technical
viability of applying a recovery process to unrecoverable
discovered PIIP in a subject reservoir. It cannot be used to assign
any class of recoverable resources (i.e., reserves and Contingent
Resources).
(e) Economic Status of Resource
Estimates
By definition, reserves are commercially (and
hence economically) recoverable. A portion of Contingent Resources
may also be associated with projects that are economically viable
but have not yet satisfied all requirements of commerciality.
Accordingly, it may be a desirable option to subclassify Contingent
Resources by economic status:
Economic Contingent Resources
are those Contingent Resources that are currently economically
recoverable. The Contingent Resources sub-classes included are
Development Pending Contingent Resources, Development on Hold
Contingent Resources, and Development Unclarified Contingent
Resources.
Sub-Economic Contingent
Resources are those Contingent Resources that are not
currently economically recoverable. The Contingent Resources
sub-class included is Development Not Viable.
Where evaluations are incomplete such that it is
premature to identify the economic viability of a project, it is
acceptable to note that project economic status is “undetermined”
(i.e., “Contingent Resources - economic status undetermined”).
In examining economic viability, the same fiscal
conditions should be applied as in the estimation of reserves,
i.e., specified economic conditions, which are generally accepted
as being reasonable (refer to the COGE Handbook Consolidated 3rd
Edition, Section 1.4.7.2.1.3).
(f) Project Maturity Sub-Classes for
Contingent Resources
Development Pending: Where
resolution of the final conditions for development is being
actively pursued (high chance of development).
Development on Hold: Where
there is a reasonable chance of development but there are major
non-technical contingencies to be resolved that are usually beyond
the control of the operator.
Development Unclarified: When
the evaluation is incomplete and there is ongoing activity to
resolve any risks or uncertainties.
Development Not Viable:
Contingent Resource that is not viable in the conditions prevailing
at the effective date of the evaluation, and where no further data
acquisition or evaluation is currently planned and hence there is a
low chance of development.
Historic Financial Information regarding
the Assets
The three concessions associated with the Merged
Concession generated ~$16 million of earnings in 2019 (which
excludes allocated finance expenses and losses on financial
instruments).
Advisory
Regarding Forward-Looking Information and
Statements
Certain statements included in this news release
constitute forward-looking statements or forward-looking
information under applicable securities legislation. Such
forward-looking statements or information are provided for the
purpose of providing information about management's current
expectations and plans relating to the future. Readers are
cautioned that reliance on such information may not be appropriate
for other purposes. Forward-looking statements or information
typically contain statements with words such as "anticipate",
"believe", "expect", "plan", "intend", "estimate", "may", "will",
"would" or similar words suggesting future outcomes or statements
regarding an outlook. In particular, forward-looking information
and statements contained in this document include, but are not
limited to; the anticipated timing of the final ratification of the
Merged Concession and respective closing commitments; anticipated
improvements to the Company's near-term operational netbacks; the
Agreement's ability to unlock meaningful additional reserves and
production; anticipated mid-term oil prices; the availability of
future investment opportunities for the Company and their ability
to increase production, provide a stable production / revenue base
in the future and extend the life of existing fields; estimated
capital investments to be made by the Company; the anticipated
timing of the Arta Nukhul, H-Field, and K-Field pools' resource
maturation projects; and other matters.
Forward-looking statements or information are
based on a number of factors and assumptions which have been used
to develop such statements and information but which may prove to
be incorrect. Although the Company believes that the expectations
reflected in such forward-looking statements or information are
reasonable, undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking
statements because the Company can give no assurance that such
expectations will prove to be correct. Many factors could cause
TransGlobe's actual results to differ materially from those
expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements made by, or
on behalf of, TransGlobe.
In addition to other factors and assumptions
which may be identified in this news release, assumptions have been
made regarding, among other things, that the Merged Concession will
be ratified; respective closing commitments will be paid;
anticipated production volumes; the Company's ability to obtain
qualified staff and equipment in a timely and cost-efficient
manner; the regulatory framework governing royalties, taxes and
environmental matters in the jurisdictions in which the Company
conducts and will conduct its business; future capital expenditures
to be made by the Company; future sources of funding for the
Company's capital programs; geological and engineering estimates in
respect of the Company's reserves and resources; the geography of
the areas in which the Company is conducting exploration and
development activities; current commodity prices and royalty
regimes; availability of skilled labour; future exchange rates; the
price of oil; the impact of increasing competition; conditions in
general economic and financial markets; availability of drilling
and related equipment; effects of regulation by governmental
agencies; future operating costs; uninterrupted access to areas of
TransGlobe's operations and infrastructure; recoverability of
reserves and future production rates; that TransGlobe will have
sufficient cash flow, debt or equity sources or other financial
resources required to fund its capital and operating expenditures
and requirements as needed; that TransGlobe's conduct and results
of operations will be consistent with its expectations; that
TransGlobe will have the ability to develop its properties in the
manner currently contemplated; current or, where applicable,
proposed industry conditions, laws and regulations will continue in
effect or as anticipated as described herein; that the estimates of
TransGlobe's reserves and resource volumes and the assumptions
related thereto (including commodity prices and development costs)
are accurate in all material respects; and other matters.
Forward-looking statements or information are
based on current expectations, estimates and projections that
involve a number of risks and uncertainties which could cause
actual results to differ materially from those anticipated by the
Company and described in the forward-looking statements or
information. These risks and uncertainties which may cause actual
results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements or
information include, among other things, the Merged Concession not
being ratified by Parliament; respective closing commitments not
being paid; operating and/or drilling costs are higher than
anticipated; unforeseen changes in the rate of production from
TransGlobe's oil and gas properties; changes in price of crude oil
and natural gas; adverse technical factors associated with
exploration, development, production or transportation of
TransGlobe's crude oil reserves; changes or disruptions in the
political or fiscal regimes in TransGlobe's areas of activity;
changes in tax, energy or other laws or regulations; changes in
significant capital expenditures; delays or disruptions in
production due to shortages of skilled manpower equipment or
materials; economic fluctuations; competition; lack of availability
of qualified personnel; the results of exploration and development
drilling and related activities; obtaining required approvals of
regulatory authorities; volatility in market prices for oil;
fluctuations in foreign exchange or interest rates; environmental
risks; ability to access sufficient capital from internal and
external sources; failure to negotiate the terms of contracts with
counterparties; failure of counterparties to perform under the
terms of their contracts; and other factors beyond the Company's
control. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of factors
is not exhaustive. Please consult TransGlobe’s public filings at
www.sedar.com and www.sec.goedgar.shtml for further, more detailed
information concerning these matters, including additional risks
related to TransGlobe's business.
The forward-looking statements or information
contained in this news release are made as of the date hereof and
the Company undertakes no obligation to update publicly or revise
any forward-looking statements or information, whether as a result
of new information, future events or otherwise unless required by
applicable securities laws. The forward-looking statements or
information contained in this news release are expressly qualified
by this cautionary statement.
Oil and Gas Advisories
Mr. Ron Hornseth, B.Sc., General Manager – Canada
for TransGlobe Energy Corporation, and a qualified person as
defined in the Guidance Note for Mining, Oil and Gas Companies,
June 2009, of the London Stock Exchange, has reviewed the technical
information contained in this report. Mr. Hornseth is a
professional engineer who obtained a Bachelor of Science in
Mechanical Engineering from the University of Alberta. He is a
member of the Association of Professional Engineers and
Geoscientists of Alberta and the Society of Petroleum Engineers and
has over 20 years’ experience in oil and gas.
Abbreviations
bbl |
barrel of
oil |
bbls |
barrels of oil |
CoC |
chance of commerciality |
CoD |
chance of discovery |
CoDev |
chance of development |
COGE Handbook |
Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook |
EGPC |
Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation |
MMbbl |
million barrels of oil |
PIIP |
Petroleum Initially-in-Place |
Proved reserves |
those reserves that can be estimated with a high degree of
certainty to be recoverable. It is likely that the actual remaining
quantities recovered will exceed the estimated proved reserves |
Probable reserves |
those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered
than proved reserves. It is equally likely that the actual
remaining quantities recovered will be greater or less than the sum
of the estimated proved plus probable reserves. |
Ps |
probability of success |
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