ABK Ambac Financial Grp. Common Stock

Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE: ABK) (Ambac) today announced first quarter 2007 net income of $213.3 million, or $2.02 per diluted share. This represents a 4% decrease from first quarter 2006 net income of $221.1 million, and a 2% decrease in net income per diluted share from $2.06 a year earlier. Net Income Per Diluted Share Net income and net income per diluted share are computed in conformity with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). However, many research analysts and investors do not limit their analysis of our earnings to a strictly GAAP basis. In order to assist investors in their understanding of quarterly results, Ambac provides other information. Earnings measures reported by research analysts exclude the net income impact of net gains and losses from sales of investment securities and mark-to-market gains and losses on credit, total return and non-trading derivative contracts (collectively �net security gains and losses�) and certain other items. Certain research analysts and investors further exclude the net income impact of accelerated premiums earned on guaranteed obligations that have been refunded and other accelerated earnings (�accelerated earnings�). During the first quarter 2007, net security gains and losses had the effect of increasing net income by $2.5 million, or $0.02 on a per diluted share basis. Accelerated earnings had the effect of increasing net income by $24.7 million, or $0.24 per diluted share during the quarter. Table I, below, provides first quarter comparisons of earnings for 2007 and 2006. Table I Earnings Per Diluted Share � First Quarter 2007� 2006� % Change� Net income per diluted share $ 2.02� $ 2.06� - 2% Effect of net security gains ($ 0.02) ($ 0.08) n.a. Operating earnings(a)(b) $ 2.00� $ 1.98� +1% Effect of accelerated earnings ($ 0.24) ($ 0.11) n.a. Core earnings(b) $ 1.76� $ 1.87� - 6% (a) Earnings that are reported by earnings estimate services, such as First Call, are on this basis. (b) Operating and core earnings are non-GAAP measures. See footnote 2, below. Commenting on the overall results, Ambac Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Robert J. Genader, noted, �The first quarter evidenced improved business production across all major business sectors relative to the 2006 comparable quarter. Debt issuance and capital markets activity continues to be strong. Importantly, recent evidence of credit spread widening in the mortgage related asset classes should lead to increased demand for our core financial guarantee product, provided of course, that wider spreads continue to prevail.� Revenues Highlights Credit enhancement production(1) in the first quarter of 2007 was $310.1 million, up 33% from $233.5 million reported in the first quarter of 2006. Growth was achieved in all three sectors, led by the 49% increase in U.S. structured finance. Table II, below, provides the quarterly comparisons of credit enhancement production by market sector for 2007 and 2006. Table II Credit Enhancement Production(1) � $-millions First Quarter 2007� 2006� % Change� Public Finance $ 114.6� $ 99.2� + 16% Structured Finance 135.4� 90.7� + 49% International 60.1� 43.6� + 38% Total $310.1� $ 233.5� + 33% In public finance, Ambac�s premium production increased primarily due to increased overall market issuance which was up almost 50%, quarter on quarter (as reported by third party sources). The increase in issuance for the quarter was driven by strong new-money and refunding issuance across the full range of municipal products. Ambac�s market share of the insured market was approximately 26%. Ambac wrote significantly more tax revenue transactions and fewer health care transactions in the first quarter of 2007 relative to the comparable prior quarter resulting in a decline in average pricing in this sector. Ambac�s strategy continues to be centered on underwriting the more highly structured transactions in the municipal market. U.S. structured finance production during the quarter was higher as strong capital market issuance continued into 2007 in the U.S. During the quarter, Ambac benefited from increased writings in utilities, structured insurance and pooled debt obligations (CDOs). Those increased writings were partially offset by lower writings of commercial asset-backed and auto securitizations during the quarter. While business activity in the mortgage-backed securities asset class has recently picked up significantly, Ambac�s writings in that product were flat, quarter on quarter. Ambac remains focused on achieving the best risk-rated returns and will remain disciplined until pricing in this product is commensurate with the level of risk. Competition from the senior/subordinated market is starting to ease in MBS and certain types of CDO transactions but remains challenging across most other asset classes of U.S. structured finance. International production was stronger as Ambac closed two sizable European infrastructure transactions in the current quarter including a guarantee on a major Austrian toll road, the largest Public Private Partnership (�PPP�) on the European continent to date. The quarter also saw strong flow in Investor Owned Utilities, pooled debt obligations and asset-backed securitizations. During the quarter, Ambac closed deals in six different countries. Management continues to believe that the broad international markets provide an array of opportunities and will be a driver of short-term and long-term growth for Ambac. Net premiums written (which represent premiums collected during the period, net of reinsurance) in the first quarter of 2007 of $220.4 million were 3% lower than net premiums written of $227.8 million in the comparable period of 2006. The decrease is primarily a result of reinsurance cancellations in the first quarter 2006, as discussed below under �Reinsurance Cancellations�. Gross premiums written in the first quarter of 2007 amounted to $249.9 million, representing a 14% increase from $219.0 million in the first quarter 2006. The increase in gross premiums written is primarily attributable to higher U.S. public finance business written during the first quarter of 2007. Ceded premiums written reduced gross premiums by $29.5 million in the first quarter 2007, compared to a net addition of $8.8 million in the first quarter of 2006. Ceded premiums written in the first quarter 2006 includes the impact of the collection of $37.0 million in return premiums from the cancellations of reinsurance contracts. Excluding the return premiums in 2006, ceded premiums in the first quarter of 2007 increased by 5% from $28.2 million in the first quarter of 2006. Ceded premiums (exclusive of return premiums in 2006) as a percentage of gross premiums written were 11.8% and 12.9% for the first quarter of 2007 and 2006, respectively. A breakdown of gross premiums written by market sector and ceded premiums for the first quarter 2007 and 2006 are included below in Table III. Table III Premiums Written � $-millions First Quarter 2007� 2006� % Change� Public Finance $ 114.4� $ 92.3� + 24% Structured Finance 83.2� 78.8� + 6% International 52.3� 47.9� + 9% Total Gross Premiums Written 249.9� 219.0� + 14% Ceded Premiums Written (29.5) 8.8� -� Net Premiums Written $ 220.4� $ 227.8� - 3% Net premiums earned and other credit enhancement fees for the first quarter of 2007 were $231.6 million, which represented an 11% increase from the $208.4 million earned in the first quarter of 2006. The increase was driven by higher accelerated premiums from refundings and policy termination fees, as well as higher normal premiums and other credit enhancement fees across all sectors. Net premiums earned include accelerated premiums, which result from refundings, calls and other accelerations recognized during the quarter. Accelerated premiums were $39.7 million in the first quarter of 2007, up 59% from $25.0 million in accelerated premiums in the first quarter of 2006. During the first quarter 2007, approximately $33.8 million of the accelerated premiums related to U.S. public finance transactions and the remainder related to U.S. structured finance and international transactions. Accelerated premiums in the first quarter of 2006 include $7.7 million related to the impact of reinsurance cancellations, as discussed below under �Reinsurance Cancellations.� A breakdown of net premiums earned and other credit enhancement fees by market sector for the first quarter 2007 and 2006 are included below in Table IV. Normal net premiums earned exclude accelerated premiums that result from refundings, calls and other accelerations. Table IV Net Premiums Earned and Other Credit Enhancement Fees � $-millions First Quarter 2007� 2006� % Change� Public Finance $ 58.4� $ 55.8� + 5% Structured Finance 82.0� 76.9� + 7% International 51.5� 50.7� + 2% Total Normal Premiums/Fees 191.9� 183.4� + 5% Accelerated Premiums 39.7� 25.0� + 59% Total $ 231.6� $ 208.4� + 11% Public finance earned premiums, before accelerations, grew 5% this quarter. Earned premium growth in this sector remains fairly steady but has been negatively impacted by the high level of refunding activity in Ambac�s public finance book in recent years, competitive pricing and the mix of business underwritten in recent periods. Structured finance earned premiums and other credit enhancement fees grew 7%. The rate of growth in structured finance has improved recently driven by strong premium production in asset classes such as pooled debt obligations and commercial asset-backed securities over the past several quarters. International earned premiums and other credit enhancement fees increased 2%. The increase is an improvement over 2006 when international earned premiums had been on the decline. The improvement is driven primarily by strong business writings across many geographies and asset classes during 2006 and the first quarter 2007. Net investment income for the first quarter of 2007 was $112.1 million, representing an increase of 10% from $101.7 million in the comparable period of 2006. This increase was due primarily to growth in the investment portfolio driven by the ongoing collection of financial guarantee premiums and fees. Other income for the first quarter of 2007 was $2.9 million, significantly lower than $29.0 million reported in the comparable period of 2006. During the first quarter of 2006, Ambac sold three aircraft from a defaulted enhanced equipment trust certificate transaction. The gain on the sale of the aircraft amounted to $25.0 million and was included in �other income� rather than as a loss recovery because the aircraft had been classified as operating assets for the short period of time in which the company took possession of them after the default. Financial services revenues. The financial services segment is comprised of the investment agreement business and the derivative products business. Gross interest income less gross interest expense from investment and payment agreements plus results from the derivative products business, excluding net realized investment gains and losses and unrealized gains and losses on total return swaps and non-trading derivative contracts, was $10.6 million in the first quarter of 2007, down 9% from $11.7 million in the first quarter of 2006. The decrease was primarily due to lower mark-to-market gains included within derivative products revenues in the first quarter 2007. Reinsurance Cancellations During the first quarter 2006, Ambac cancelled its remaining reinsurance contracts with two reinsurers and recaptured $3.9 billion of par outstanding. Included in ceded premiums in our Consolidated Statement of Operations is $37.0 million in returned premiums from the cancellations, of which approximately $29.3 million was deferred. The difference, $7.7 million, included in accelerated premiums, resulted from the difference between the contractual amount of returned premiums and the associated unearned premium remaining on the previously ceded portion of the underlying guarantees. The net income impact of the cancellations, presented in Table I, above, as part of accelerated premiums, amounted to approximately $2.0 million, or $0.02 per diluted share. Expenses Highlights Financial guarantee expenses of $47.8 million for the first quarter of 2007 increased 26% from $38.0 million of expenses for the first quarter of 2006. Financial guarantee loss and loss expenses were $11.4 million in the first quarter of 2007, up from $0.1 million in the first quarter of 2006. See �Loss Reserve Activity,� below, for additional information on losses. Net underwriting and operating expenses of the financial guarantee segment totaled $36.4 million in the first quarter of 2007, down 4% from $37.9 million in the first quarter of 2006 primarily due to additional accruals taken in 2006 under new accounting rules for stock-based compensation for retirement eligible employees. Loss Reserve Activity Case basis loss reserves (loss reserves for exposures that have defaulted) decreased $4.8 million during the first quarter of 2007 from $42.5 million at December 31, 2006 to $37.7 million at March 31, 2007. The decrease was driven by improving conditions on certain credits for which we had previously paid claims. Total net claim payments during the quarter amounted to ($0.1) million. Active credit reserves (�ACR�) are established for probable and estimable losses due to credit deterioration on certain adversely classified insured transactions. The ACR increased by $16.2 million during the quarter, from $172.6 million at December 31, 2006 to $188.8 million at March 31, 2007. The increase was driven primarily by net increases in reserves on certain credits within the U.S. public finance portfolio. Other Items Total net securities gains/(losses) for the first quarter of 2007 were $3.7 million, consisting of net realized gains on investment securities of $6.6 million, net mark-to-market losses on credit and total return derivatives of ($1.9) million and net mark-to-market losses on non-trading derivative contracts of ($1.0) million. Approximately $6.2 million of the net realized gains on investment securities relate to cash recoveries received during the quarter related to a security in the investment agreement portfolio that had recognized impairment losses in prior years. For the first quarter of 2006, net securities gains/(losses) were $13.4 million, consisting of net realized gains on investment securities of $5.1 million, net mark-to-market gains on credit and total return derivatives of $7.2 million and net mark-to-market gains on non-trading derivative contracts of $1.1 million. Balance Sheet Highlights Total assets as of March 31, 2007 were $20.11 billion, down 1% from total assets of $20.27 billion at December 31, 2006. The decrease was primarily driven by a net draw down from our investment agreement portfolio, partially offset by cash generated from operations during the period. On February 12, 2007, Ambac issued $400 million of Directly-Issued Subordinated Capital Securities (DISCSSM). Ambac used the net proceeds from the offering and additional funds to purchase $400 million worth of shares of its common stock. The common stock was purchased through an accelerated share buyback agreement and resulted in 4.26 million shares acquired during the quarter. The total number of additional shares that will ultimately be repurchased under the program will be based on the volume-weighted average share price of the Company�s common shares during the term of the accelerated buyback agreement. As of March 31, 2007, stockholders� equity was $5.99 billion, a 3% decrease from year-end 2006 stockholders� equity of $6.18 billion. The decrease was primarily the result of the $400 million share buyback, partially offset by net income during the period. Annual Meeting of Stockholders As previously announced, the Board of Directors set the 2007 Annual Meeting of Stockholders for Tuesday, May 8, 2007, at 11:30 a.m. in New York City. The record date for determining stockholders entitled to notice of, and to vote at, the annual meeting was the close of business, March 9, 2007. Forward-Looking Statements This release, in particular the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer�s remarks, contains statements about our future results that may be considered �forward-looking statements� under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are based on current expectations and the current economic environment. We caution you that these statements are not guarantees of future performance. They involve a number of risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. Our actual results could differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Among the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially are (1) changes in the economic, credit, or interest rate environment in the United States and abroad; (2) the level of activity within the national and worldwide debt markets; (3) competitive conditions and pricing levels; (4) legislative and regulatory developments; (5) changes in tax laws; (6) the policies and actions of the United States and other governments; (7) changes in capital requirement or other criteria of rating agencies; (8) changes in accounting principles or practices that may impact the Company�s reported financial results; (9) the amount of reserves established for losses and loss expenses; (10) default of one or more of the Company�s reinsurers; (11) market spreads and pricing on insured pooled debt obligations and other derivative products insured or issued by the Company; (12) prepayment speeds on insured asset-backed securities and other factors that may influence the amount of installment premiums paid to the Company; and (13) other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time. We undertake no obligation to publicly correct or update any forward-looking statement if we later become aware that it is not likely to be achieved, except as required by law. Ambac Financial Group, Inc., headquartered in New York City, is a holding company whose affiliates provide financial guarantees and financial services to clients in both the public and private sectors around the world. Ambac�s principal operating subsidiary, Ambac Assurance Corporation, a leading guarantor of public finance and structured finance obligations, has earned triple-A ratings, the highest ratings available from Moody�s Investors Service, Inc., Standard & Poor�s Ratings Services and Fitch, Inc. Ambac Financial Group, Inc. common stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange (ticker symbol ABK). Footnotes (1) Credit enhancement production, which is not promulgated under GAAP, is used by management, equity analysts and investors as an indication of new business production in the period. Credit enhancement production, which Ambac reports as analytical data, is defined as gross (direct and assumed) up-front premiums plus the present value of estimated installment premiums on insurance policies and structured credit derivatives issued in the period. The discount rate used to measure the present value of estimated installment premiums was 5.4% and 5.1% during the first quarter of 2007 and 2006, respectively. The definition of credit enhancement production used by Ambac may differ from definitions of credit enhancement production (or similar terms) used by other public holding companies of financial guarantors. The following table reconciles credit enhancement production to gross premiums written calculated in accordance with GAAP: $-millions First Quarter � 2007� 2006� Credit enhancement production $ 310� $ 233� Present value of estimated installment premiums written on insurance policies and structured credit derivatives issued in the period � � � (198) � � � (136) Gross up-front premiums written 112� 97� Gross installment premiums written on insurance policies � 138� � 122� Gross premiums written $ 250� $ 219� (2) Operating earnings and core earnings are not substitutes for net income computed in accordance with GAAP, but are useful measures of performance used by management, equity analysts and investors. Operating earnings measures income from operations excluding the impact of investment portfolio realized gains and losses, mark-to-market gains and losses from certain non-trading derivative instruments and certain other items. Core earnings further exclude the impact of refundings, calls and other accelerations. The definitions of operating earnings and core earnings used by Ambac may differ from definitions of operating earnings and core earnings used by other public holding companies of financial guarantors. Ambac Financial Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries Consolidated Statements of Operations (Unaudited) For the Three Months Ended March 31, 2007 and 2006 (Dollars in Thousands Except Share Data) � Three Months Ended March 31, 2007� � 2006� Revenues: Financial Guarantee: Gross premiums written $249,912� $219,058� Ceded premiums written (29,484) 8,757� Net premiums written $220,428� $227,815� � Net premiums earned $216,006� $194,232� Other credit enhancement fees 15,553� 14,188� Net premiums earned and other credit enhancement fees 231,559� 208,420� Net investment income 112,064� 101,734� Net realized investment gains (losses) 440� (379) Net mark-to-market (losses) gains on credit derivative contracts (5,124) 1,953� Other income 2,856� 28,962� Financial Services: Investment income 105,970� 81,935� Derivative products 3,606� 4,686� Net realized investment gains 6,161� 5,503� Net mark-to-market gains on total return swap contracts 3,215� 5,223� Net mark-to-market (losses) gains on non-trading derivatives (499) 244� Corporate: Net investment income 1,581� 3,000� � Total revenues 461,829� 441,281� � Expenses: Financial Guarantee: Loss and loss expenses 11,422� 127� Underwriting and operating expenses 36,376� 37,858� Financial Services: Interest on investment and payment agreements 98,958� 74,965� Operating expenses 3,288� 3,572� Interest 19,289� 19,475� Corporate 3,256� 3,643� � Total expenses 172,589� 139,640� � Income before income taxes 289,240� 301,641� Provision for income taxes 75,897� 80,501� � Net income $213,343� $221,140� � � � Net income per share $2.04� $2.08� � Net income per diluted share $2.02� $2.06� � � Weighted average number of common shares outstanding: � Basic 104,643,529� 106,438,758� � Diluted 105,600,555� 107,430,787� Ambac Financial Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries Consolidated Balance Sheets March 31, 2007 and December 31, 2006 (Dollars in Thousands Except Share Data) � March 31, 2007 December 31, 2006 (unaudited) Assets � Investments: Fixed income securities, at fair value (amortized cost of $16,585,654 in 2007 and $16,484,257 in 2006) $16,888,069� $16,800,338� Fixed income securities pledged as collateral, at fair value (amortized cost of $455,210 in 2007 and $311,546 in 2006) 452,324� 307,101� Short-term investments, at cost (approximates fair value) 270,196� 311,759� Other (cost of $13,458 in 2007 and $13,427 in 2006) 14,460� 14,391� Total investments 17,625,049� 17,433,589� � Cash 31,489� 31,868� Securities purchased under agreements to resell -� 273,000� Receivable for securities sold 1,743� 12,857� Investment income due and accrued 154,614� 193,199� Reinsurance recoverable on paid and unpaid losses 4,120� 3,921� Prepaid reinsurance 319,310� 315,498� Deferred acquisition costs 263,282� 252,115� Loans 602,624� 625,422� Derivative assets 995,236� 1,019,339� Other assets 114,393� 107,005� Total assets $20,111,860� $20,267,813� � Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity � Liabilities: Unearned premiums $3,045,911� $3,037,544� Loss and loss expense reserve 231,314� 220,074� Ceded reinsurance balances payable 20,888� 20,084� Obligations under investment and payment agreements 7,747,778� 8,202,590� Obligations under investment repurchase agreements 151,797� 154,287� Securities sold under agreement to repurchase 128,000� -� Deferred income taxes 261,448� 263,483� Current income taxes 119,258� 49,920� Long-term debt 1,389,176� 991,804� Accrued interest payable 103,685� 105,129� Derivative liabilities 654,070� 667,066� Other liabilities 225,090� 275,670� Payable for securities purchased 44,266� 95,973� Total liabilities 14,122,681� 14,083,624� � Stockholders' equity: Preferred stock -� -� Common stock 1,092� 1,092� Additional paid-in capital 814,223� 790,168� Accumulated other comprehensive income 187,605� 197,576� Retained earnings 5,626,344� 5,454,575� Common stock held in treasury at cost (640,085) (259,222) Total stockholders' equity 5,989,179� 6,184,189� Total liabilities and stockholders' equity $20,111,860� $20,267,813� � Number of shares outstanding (net of treasury shares) 101,775,497� 105,730,553� Book value per share $58.85� $58.49� Ambac Assurance Corporation and Subsidiaries Capitalization Table - GAAP March 31, 2007 and December 31, 2006 (Dollars in Millions) � The following table sets forth Ambac Assurance's consolidated capitalization as of March 31, 2007 and December 31, 2006, respectively, on the basis of accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America. � March 31, December 31, 2007� 2006� (unaudited) � Long-term debt $0� $0� � Stockholder's equity: Common stock 82� 82� Additional paid-in capital 1,532� 1,509� Accumulated other comprehensive income 134� 142� Retained earnings 5,434� 5,259� Total stockholder's equity $7,182� $6,992�