Billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk on Wednesday disclosed plans
to send an unmanned capsule to Mars, perhaps as soon as 2018,
revealing the first details of his long-term vision for a private
enterprise to colonize the red planet.
The announcement, made through Twitter, didn't include any
specifics about the potential mission, and left unanswered all the
major technical and funding questions surrounding Mr. Musk's
oft-repeated concept to ultimately set up habitats on Mars. Over
the years, he has repeatedly said his top-priority goal—more
important than the economic success of his separate space and
electric-car companies—is to build colonies on Mars, envisioning
thousands of inhabitants served by airline-like flights to and from
earth.
In the past, Mr. Musk has basically stayed away from describing
even the early steps toward what many detractors consider a
far-fetched, sci-fi ambition. But Wednesday's messages indicate Mr.
Musk's Space Exploration Technologies Corp., known as SpaceX, has
crafted some definite preliminary plans, and suggest the company is
further along than many outsiders had believed in developing
versions of its Dragon spacecraft and Falcon 9 rockets aimed at
eventually exploring deep into the solar system.
SpaceX, based in Hawthorne, Ca., tweeted that a Mars mission
could come "as soon as 2018." It also said "Red Dragons will inform
overall Mars architecture," adding "details to come," without
elaborating further.
The next-generation Dragon 2 spacecraft presumably would be
blasted on its monthslong voyage toward Mars by some version of the
company's heavy-lift Falcon 9 rocket. Neither the craft nor the
rocket has yet flown, and the Falcon 9 Heavy, years behind
schedule, is now slated to have its maiden blastoff late this year.
The heavy version has 27 engines, versus nine for the current
Falcon model.
Wednesday's developments highlight SpaceX's continued emphasis
not just on Mars—but on devising hardware capable of gently landing
on its surface. Mr. Musk, who founded closely held SpaceX and has
built it into a multibillion-dollar space transportation company,
sent two separate tweets discussing the plans. One said "Dragon 2
is designed to be able to land anywhere in the solar system,"
adding that "Red Dragon Mars Mission" is intended to be "the first
test flight" of the upgraded capsule.
A major challenge facing SpaceX is devising a system to safely
slow a large capsule during its descent through the thin Martian
atmosphere. Dragon 2 is expected to weigh substantially more than
the unmanned rovers the National Aeronautics and Space
Administration has landed on the plant.
Previously, Mr. Musk has telegraphed that he expects to unveil
some details of his long-term Mars vision at an international
conference in Mexico slated for late September. The 2018 timetable
is significant because a launch at that time could take advantage
of a once-in-a-lifetime close approach of the orbits of Earth and
Mars.
If all goes well, SpaceX will start transporting U.S. astronauts
to the international space station for NASA starting next year. But
as the station orbits relatively close to the earth, much more
advanced technology will be required for deep-space missions,
including those targeting Mars or even its vicinity. Until now, Mr.
Musk has been practically silent about ways to upgrade today's
Dragon capsules or specifics about potential test flights to begin
charting a course for Mars voyages.
NASA, which has sketched out its own vision of eventual human
exploration and settlement of Mars, has said it will need at least
two decades, likely well over $100 billion dollars and extensive
international cooperation to send astronauts to orbit the planet.
From Wednesday's messages, it isn't clear what Mr. Musk's timeline
might be for manned missions.
In an email, a SpaceX spokesman said sending Dragons to Mars
"will help demonstrate the technologies needed to land large
payloads" on the planet, using engines or other technologies that
generate thrust. Such missions will "help inform the overall Mars
colonization architecture SpaceX will reveal later this year," he
added.
The company plans to fund the mission itself, according to the
spokesman, "though NASA will offer some technical support" such as
space-based government communication networks. The preliminary
plans are far enough along that SpaceX and NASA have signed a
formal cooperative agreement, which the company spokesman said
doesn't call for any federal dollars flowing to Mr. Musk's team.
The estimated cost of the initial test flight wasn't disclosed.
The glimpse into SpaceX's plans comes as the international space
community appears increasingly split about the best approach to
sending manned missions to Mars. Such voyages would expose
astronauts to unprecedented levels of radiation and long stretches
of isolation. Providing adequate food and oxygen also creates major
technical challenges, well beyond those NASA has faced since it
began sending man into space in 1961.
The European Space Agency, for example, has emphasized setting
up a manned Moon base as the next major space venture. Likewise,
China has focused its expanding manned space program to getting
crews on the surface of the moon before the end of the decade.
Current NASA plans envision various types of interim missions
leading to Mars—both manned and robotic—including plans for a
spacecraft to rendezvous with a comet and perhaps extract a sample
of it around 2025. But the agency has opposed long-term settlements
on the moon. So far, Congress has been lukewarm about many of
NASA's interim steps, and the outcome of the 2016 presidential
election could disrupt efforts already under way.
Mr. Musk has never wavered from his commitment to colonize Mars,
repeating that goal in interviews, speeches and other public
statements. According to Mr. Musk, whose company has surprised many
aerospace veterans by managing to vertically land spent Falcon 9
boosters next to a launch pad as well as on a floating platform,
reusable rockets are the fundamental breakthrough needed to
revolutionize access to space.
"It's a fundamental decision we have to make as a civilization,"
Mr Musk said at a conference in Hong Kong this year. Mars is "the
next, natural step" because "it's the only planet" on which "we
really have a shot at establishing a self-sustaining city," he
said.
In a 2013 interview with Britain's Guardian newspaper, he said
would be happy to make the trip himself. Asked what his tombstone
might say if he died there, Mr. Musk said it should proclaim: "I'm
on Mars, can you believe it?"
Write to Andy Pasztor at andy.pasztor@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 27, 2016 18:05 ET (22:05 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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