Kelt Reports Reserves at December 31, 2013, Provides Production
Update and Announces Non-Core Property Disposition
CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwired - Feb 11, 2014) - Kelt
Exploration Ltd. ("Kelt" or the "Company") (TSX:KEL) has released
its reserves and operating results for the year ended December 31,
2013. A summary of results is as follows:
Reserves |
|
|
Weighting |
|
Oil [mbbls] |
11,808 |
|
20% |
|
NGLs [mbbls] |
5,002 |
|
8% |
|
Gas [mmcf] |
254,329 |
|
72% |
|
Combined [MBOE] |
59,198 |
|
100% |
|
|
|
|
Finding, development & acquisition ("FD&A")
costs |
|
|
Recycle Ratio |
|
Proved, including future development capital ("FDC") [$/BOE] |
$ 18.82 |
|
1.3 x |
|
Proved plus probable, including FDC [$/BOE] |
$ 13.23 |
|
1.8 x |
|
|
|
|
Drilling Activity |
Gross Wells |
|
Net Wells |
|
Wells drilled |
19 |
|
12.1 |
|
Success rate |
100% |
|
100% |
|
|
|
|
Land Holdings |
Gross Acres |
|
Net Acres |
|
Developed |
255,320 |
|
113,273 |
|
Undeveloped |
299,142 |
|
184,082 |
|
Total |
554,462 |
|
297,355 |
|
|
|
|
2013 Average Production |
Calendar year (365 days) |
|
Since commencement of active operations (308 days) |
|
Oil [bbls/d] |
516 |
|
611 |
|
NGLs [bbls/d] |
297 |
|
352 |
|
Gas [mmcf/d] |
18,888 |
|
22,384 |
|
Combined [BOE/d] |
3,961 |
|
4,694 |
|
|
|
|
Q4 2013 Average Production |
|
|
Weighting |
|
Oil [bbls/d] |
809 |
|
14% |
|
NGLs [bbls/d] |
487 |
|
8% |
|
Gas [mmcf/d] |
26,660 |
|
78% |
|
Combined [BOE/d] |
5,739 |
|
100% |
|
|
|
|
|
P&NG Reserves |
|
P&NG Reserves |
|
discounted @ 8% |
|
discounted @ 10% |
Net asset value [$M] |
$ 706,405 |
|
$ 640,905 |
Fully diluted common shares outstanding [000's] |
114,069 |
|
114,069 |
|
Net asset value per share [$] |
$ 6.19 |
|
$ 5.62 |
Production
Kelt achieved production levels that exceeded its public
guidance. Average production for 2013 was 3,961 BOE per day (4,694
BOE per day for the 308 operating day period commencing on February
27, 2013) and production for the fourth quarter was 5,739 BOE per
day. After giving effect to the Pouce Coupe/Spirit River
acquisition that was completed on December 20, 2013, exit 2013
production was approximately 9,800 BOE per day (29% oil and NGLs
and 71% gas).
Reserves
Kelt retained Sproule Associates Limited ("Sproule"), an
independent qualified reserve evaluator to prepare a report on 100%
of its oil and gas reserves. The Company has a Reserves Committee
which oversees the selection, qualifications and reporting
procedures of the independent engineering consultants. Reserves as
at December 31, 2013 were determined using the guidelines and
definitions set out under National Instrument 51-101 ("NI
51-101").
At December 31, 2013, Kelt's proved plus probable reserves were
59.2 million BOE. The Company's net present value of proved plus
probable reserves at December 31, 2013, discounted at 10% before
tax, was $557.4 million. Forecasted commodity prices for 2014 used
to determine the present value of the Company's reserves were
US$94.65/bbl for WTI oil and CA$3.79/GJ for AECO gas. Forecasted
commodity prices for future years are shown in the table below.
The reserve life index for proved plus probable reserves was
13.9 years. At December 31, 2013, the weighting of proved plus
probable reserves was 20% oil, 8% NGLs and 72% gas.
The following table outlines a summary of the Company's reserves
at December 31, 2013:
Summary of Reserves |
|
Oil [mbbls] |
NGLs [mbbls] |
Gas [mmcf] |
Combined [MBOE] |
Proved Developed Producing |
4,500 |
1,082 |
75,873 |
18,228 |
Proved Developed Non-producing |
180 |
28 |
966 |
369 |
Proved Undeveloped |
1,990 |
1,531 |
78,857 |
16,664 |
Total Proved ("1P") |
6,670 |
2,641 |
155,696 |
35,260 |
Probable Additional |
5,138 |
2,361 |
98,633 |
23,938 |
Total Proved plus Probable ("2P") |
11,808 |
5,002 |
254,329 |
59,198 |
Future development capital ("FDC") expenditures of $219.6
million included in the reserve evaluation for total proved
reserves are expected to be spent as follows: $64.2 million in
2014, $89.5 million in 2015 and $41.9 million in 2016 and $24.0
million thereafter. FDC of $331.3 million included for proved plus
probable reserves are expected to be spent as follows: $114.1
million in 2014, $108.9 million in 2015, $75.4 million in 2016 and
$32.9 million thereafter.
The following table outlines FDC expenditures by major prospect
included in the December 31, 2013 reserve evaluation:
FDC Expenditures |
|
2P FDC ($M) |
2P Gross Drills |
2P Net Drills |
Inga/Fireweed - Doig/Montney |
142,318 |
50 |
21.3 |
Karr - Montney |
60,869 |
8 |
8.0 |
Pouce Coupe - Montney |
113,210 |
15 |
15.0 |
Spirit River - Charlie Lake |
9,080 |
2 |
2.0 |
Other costs |
5,823 |
- |
- |
Total FDC Expenditures |
331,300 |
75 |
46.3 |
The WTI oil price during the years 2011 to 2013 were range bound
averaging between US$94.19 and US$97.98 per barrel. After a
precipitous decline in natural gas prices in 2012 during which
AECO-C averaged $2.30 per GJ, prices increased to average $2.97 per
GJ in 2013. Significantly higher prices have been realized to date
in 2014.
Sproule is forecasting WTI oil prices to average US$91.95 per
bbl over the next five years,7% higher than the average price of
US$85.65 per bbl over the past five years. For natural gas, AECO-C
natural gas prices are forecasted to average $4.16 per GJ over the
2014 to 2018 period, an increase of 25% from the average price of
$3.34 per GJ during the 2009 to 2013 period.
The following table outlines forecasted future prices that
Sproule has used in their evaluation of the Company's reserves at
December 31, 2013:
Future Commodity Price Forecast |
|
WTI Cushing Crude Oil [US$/bbl] |
USD/CAD Exchange [US$] |
|
AECO-C Natural Gas [$/GJ] |
2014 |
94.65 |
0.940 |
|
3.79 |
2015 |
88.37 |
0.940 |
|
3.78 |
2016 |
84.25 |
0.940 |
|
3.79 |
2017 |
95.52 |
0.940 |
|
4.67 |
2018 |
96.96 |
0.940 |
|
4.75 |
Five Year Average |
91.95 |
0.940 |
|
4.16 |
The Company's net present value of proved plus probable
reserves, discounted at 10% before tax was $557.4 million. The
undiscounted future net cash flow, before tax, was $1.1
billion.
The following table is a net present value summary (before tax)
as at December 31, 2013:
Net Present Value Summary (before tax) |
|
Undiscounted [$000's] |
NPV 5% BT [$000's] |
NPV 8% BT [$000's] |
NPV 10% BT [$000's] |
Proved Developed Producing |
379,455 |
306,367 |
275,300 |
258,152 |
Total Proved |
584,807 |
428,854 |
366,000 |
332,214 |
Total Proved plus Probable |
1,097,640 |
749,914 |
622,900 |
557,361 |
The Company's net present value of proved plus probable
reserves, discounted at 10% after tax was $437.2 million. The
undiscounted future net cash flow, after tax, was $860.3
million.
The following table is a net present value summary (after tax)
as at December 31, 2013:
Net Present Value Summary (after tax) |
|
Undiscounted [$000's] |
NPV 5% AT [$000's] |
NPV 8% AT [$000's] |
NPV 10% AT [$000's] |
Proved Developed Producing |
323,689 |
265,704 |
240,800 |
226,993 |
Total Proved |
477,653 |
351,813 |
300,800 |
273,376 |
Total Proved plus Probable |
860,322 |
588,831 |
488,900 |
437,163 |
During 2013, the Company's capital expenditures (unaudited), net
of dispositions, resulted in proved plus probable reserve additions
of 60.6 million BOE, resulting in FD&A costs of $13.23 per BOE,
including FDC costs. Proved reserve additions in 2013 were 36.7
million BOE, resulting in FD&A costs of $18.82 per BOE,
including FDC costs.
During its first year of operations, Kelt has successfully added
high quality reserves at a low FD&A cost per BOE. This has been
primarily a result of the Company's successful exploration and
development drilling programs at Karr in Alberta and Inga in
British Columbia. At Karr, the Company is at an early stage in the
delineation and de-risking of a potential Montney oil (with
associated gas) multi-year development play.
At Inga, Kelt has participated with its partner in developing a
condensate-rich natural gas Doig resource play, and with recent
success, it appears to have extended the size of the resource on
the Company's southern land block. Also at Inga, Kelt, along with
its partner, has commenced exploration drilling on its Montney
lands where initial results have been encouraging.
In addition to its drilling program, Kelt completed a
significant acquisition in the Pouce Coupe and Spirit River area of
Alberta. The acquisition was completed on December 20, 2013 and the
Company has identified 136 gross (112 net) horizontal drilling
locations primarily targeting the Montney, Doig and Charlie Lake
formations. In the December 31, 2013 reserve evaluation, 17 gross
(17 net) horizontal locations are included in future development
capital in this area, leaving the Company with a significant
inventory of potential un-booked reserves.
The recycle ratio is a measure for evaluating the effectiveness
of a company's re-investment program. The ratio measures the
efficiency of capital investment. It accomplishes this by comparing
the operating netback per BOE to that years' reserve FD&A cost
per BOE. Using the operating netback for the December 20th to 31st,
2013 period, which would include operations from the assets
acquired at Pouce Coupe and Spirit River on December 20, 2013, the
proved plus probable recycle ratio was 1.8 times. As the Company
commences development of these acquired assets, it expects to have
a future recycle ratio in excess of 2.0 times.
Kelt's 2013 capital investment program resulted in net reserve
additions that replaced 2013 production by a factor of 25.4 times
on a proved basis and 42.0 times on a proved plus probable
basis.
The following table provides detailed calculations relating to
FD&A costs and recycle ratios for 2013:
|
Year ended December 31, 2013 |
1P Reserves |
|
Capital expenditures [$000's] [unaudited] |
329,143 |
Value of assets conveyed from Celtic Exploration Ltd. |
141,961 |
Change in FDC costs required to develop reserves [$000's] |
219,600 |
Total capital costs [$000's] |
690,704 |
Reserve additions, net [MBOE] |
36,705 |
FD&A cost, before FDC [$/BOE] |
8.97 |
FD&A cost, including FDC [$/BOE] |
18.82 |
Operating netback [$/BOE] [unaudited] [1] |
23.74 |
Recycle ratio - proved |
1.3 x |
|
|
2P Reserves |
|
Capital expenditures [$000's] [unaudited] |
329,143 |
Value of assets conveyed from Celtic Exploration Ltd. |
141,961 |
Change in FDC costs required to develop reserves [$000's] |
331,300 |
Total capital costs [$000's] |
802,404 |
Reserve additions, net [MBOE] |
60,643 |
FD&A cost, before FDC [$/BOE] |
5.43 |
FD&A cost, including FDC [$/BOE] |
13.23 |
Operating netback [$/BOE] [unaudited] [1] |
23.74 |
Recycle ratio - proved plus probable |
1.8 x |
[1] Operating netback is for the period from December 20, 2013
to December 31, 2013, as this period reflects production from the
Pouce Coupe/Spirit River acquisition that was completed on December
20, 2013.
Reserves Reconciliation
A reconciliation of Kelt's proved reserves is provided in the
table below:
Proved Reserves |
|
|
Oil [mbbls] |
|
NGLs [mbbls] |
|
Gas [mmcf] |
|
Combined [MBOE] |
|
Balance, December 31, 2012 |
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Extensions |
1,180 |
|
742 |
|
19,094 |
|
5,104 |
|
Infill drilling |
179 |
|
171 |
|
4,463 |
|
1,094 |
|
Discoveries |
82 |
|
20 |
|
348 |
|
160 |
|
Technical revisions |
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
Economic factors |
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
Acquisitions |
5,417 |
|
1,816 |
|
138,685 |
|
30,347 |
|
Dispositions |
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net additions |
6,858 |
|
2,749 |
|
162,590 |
|
36,705 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2013 Production |
(188 |
) |
(108 |
) |
(6,894 |
) |
(1,445 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Balance, December 31, 2013 |
6,670 |
|
2,641 |
|
155,696 |
|
35,260 |
|
A reconciliation of Kelt's proved plus probable reserves is
provided in the table below:
Proved plus Probable Reserves |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oil [mbbls] |
|
NGLs [mbbls] |
|
Gas [mmcf] |
|
Combined [MBOE] |
|
Balance, December 31, 2012 |
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Extensions |
3,996 |
|
2,058 |
|
49,616 |
|
14,323 |
|
Infill drilling |
234 |
|
220 |
|
5,755 |
|
1,413 |
|
Discoveries |
113 |
|
28 |
|
480 |
|
221 |
|
Technical revisions |
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
Economic factors |
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
Acquisitions |
7,653 |
|
2,804 |
|
205,372 |
|
44,686 |
|
Dispositions |
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net additions |
11,996 |
|
5,110 |
|
261,223 |
|
60,643 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2013 Production |
(188 |
) |
(108 |
) |
(6,894 |
) |
(1,445 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Balance, December 31, 2013 |
11,808 |
|
5,002 |
|
254,329 |
|
59,198 |
|
Net Asset Value
Kelt's net asset value per share at December 31, 2013 was $6.19
(P&NG reserves discounted at 8% BT) and $5.62 (P&NG
reserves discounted at 10% BT). Details of the calculation are
shown in the table below:
Net Asset Value per Share |
|
NPV discounted @ 8% BT [$ 000's] |
|
NPV discounted @ 10% BT [$ 000's] |
Present value of P&NG reserves, discounted, before tax |
622,900 |
|
557,400 |
Undeveloped land |
63,384 |
|
63,384 |
Working capital surplus [1] [Unaudited] |
2,578 |
|
2,578 |
Proceeds from exercise of stock options |
17,543 |
|
17,543 |
Net asset value |
706,405 |
|
640,905 |
Diluted common shares outstanding (000's) |
114,069 |
|
114,069 |
Net asset value per share ($/share) |
6.19 |
|
5.62 |
[1] Working capital excludes assets held for sale and non-cash
items.
Non-core Property Disposition
On February 10, 2014, Kelt completed the disposition of non-core
and non-operated assets that were part of the assets included in
the acquisition that was completed on December 20, 2013 in
northwestern Alberta. The Company received proceeds of $20.0
million, before closing adjustments. Current net production from
these assets is estimated to be approximately 210 barrels per day
of oil. Proved reserves, as at December 31, 2013, were 500,500
barrels and proved plus probable reserves were 635,100 barrels.
Kelt had not assigned any future development capital or future
potential drilling locations to these assets.
Kelt will continue to seek optimization of its asset base by
building on its core properties and monetizing non-core assets.
Kelt remains optimistic about its future prospects. The Company
is opportunity driven and is confident that it can grow its
production base by building on its current inventory of development
projects and by adding new exploration prospects. Kelt will
endeavor to maintain a high quality product stream that on a
historical basis receives a superior price with reasonably low
production and transportation costs. In addition, the Company will
focus its exploration efforts in areas of multi-zone hydrocarbon
potential, primarily in west central Alberta and northeastern
British Columbia.
Advisory Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements and
forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable
securities laws. The use of any of the words "expect",
"anticipate", "continue", "estimate", "objective", "ongoing",
"may", "will", "project", "should", "believe", "plans", "intends"
and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking
information or statements. In particular, this press release
contains forward-looking statements concerning the timing of future
development capital expenditures and the extent of the size of
resource. Statements relating to "reserves" or "resources" are
deemed to be forward looking statements as they involve the implied
assessment, based on current estimates and assumptions that the
reserves and resources can be profitably produced in the
future.
Although Kelt believes that the expectations and assumptions on
which the forward-looking statements are based are reasonable,
undue reliance should not be placed on the forward-looking
statements because Kelt cannot give any assurance that they will
prove to be correct. Since forward-looking statements address
future events and conditions, by their very nature they involve
inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ
materially from those currently anticipated due to a number of
factors and risks. These include, but are not limited to, the
failure to obtain necessary regulatory approvals for planned
operations and risks associated with the oil and gas industry in
general (e.g., operational risks in development, exploration and
production; delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration
or development projects or capital expenditures; the uncertainty of
reserve estimates; the uncertainty of estimates and projections
relating to production, costs and expenses; health, safety and
environmental risks; commodity price and exchange rate
fluctuations; and uncertainties resulting from potential delays or
changes in plans with respect to exploration or development
projects or capital expenditures).
The forward-looking statements contained in this press release
are made as of the date hereof and Kelt does not undertake any
obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking
statements or information, whether as a result of new information,
future events or otherwise, unless so required by applicable
securities laws. Please refer to Kelt's Annual Information Form
dated March 28, 2013 for additional risk factors relating to Kelt
which is available for viewing on www.sedar.com.
Certain information set out herein may be considered as
"financial outlook" within the meaning of applicable securities
laws. The purpose of this financial outlook is to provide readers
with disclosure regarding Kelt's reasonable expectations as to the
anticipated results of its proposed business activities for the
periods indicated. Readers are cautioned that the financial outlook
may not be appropriate for other purposes.
Non-GAAP Measures
This document contains certain financial measures, as described
below, which do not have standardized meanings prescribed by GAAP.
As these measures are commonly used in the oil and gas industry,
the Company believes that their inclusion is useful to investors.
The reader is cautioned that these amounts may not be directly
comparable to measures for other companies where similar
terminology is used.
"Operating netback" is calculated by deducting royalties,
production expenses and transportation expenses from oil and gas
revenue. Operating netback is used by Kelt as a key measure of
performance and is not intended to represent operating profits nor
should it be viewed as an alternative to cash provided by operating
activities, profit or other measures of financial performance
calculated in accordance with GAAP. "Finding, development and
acquisition" or "FD&A" cost is the sum of capital expenditures
incurred in the period and the change in future development capital
required to develop reserves. FD&A cost per BOE is determined
by dividing current period net reserve additions into the
corresponding period's FD&A cost. "Recycle ratio" is a measure
for evaluating the effectiveness of a company's re-investment
program. The ratio measures the efficiency of capital investment by
comparing the operating netback per BOE to FD&A cost per
BOE.
"Net asset value per share" is calculated by adding the value of
petroleum and natural gas reserves, undeveloped land value, working
capital surplus and proceeds from exercise of stock options, and
dividing by the diluted number of common shares outstanding.
Measurements and Abbreviations
All dollar amounts are referenced in thousands of Canadian
dollars, except when noted otherwise. Where amounts are expressed
on a barrel of oil equivalent ("BOE") basis, natural gas volumes
have been converted to oil equivalence at six thousand cubic feet
per barrel and sulphur volumes have been converted to oil
equivalence at 0.6 long tons per barrel. The term BOE may be
misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A BOE conversion
ratio of six thousand cubic feet per barrel is based on an energy
equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner
tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead.
References to oil in this discussion include crude oil and field
condensate. References to natural gas liquids ("NGLs") include,
pentane, butane, propane, and ethane. References to gas in this
discussion include natural gas and sulphur.
bbls |
Barrels |
mbbls |
thousand barrels |
mcf |
thousand cubic feet |
mmcf |
million cubic feet |
MBOE |
thousand barrels of oil equivalent |
MMBTU |
million British Thermal Units |
AECO-C |
Alberta Energy Company "C" Meter Station of the Nova Pipeline
System |
WTI |
West
Texas Intermediate |
NYMEX |
New York Mercantile Exchange |
$M |
thousand dollars |
1P |
proved reserves |
2P |
proved plus probable reserves |
BT |
before tax |
AT |
after tax |
NPV |
net present value |
P&NG |
petroleum and natural gas |
Kelt Exploration Ltd.David J. WilsonPresident and Chief
Executive Officer(403) 201-5340Kelt Exploration Ltd.Sadiq H.
LalaniVice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer(403)
215-5310www.keltexploration.com
Kelt Exploration (TSX:KEL)
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