Africa Oil Corp. ("Africa Oil", "AOC", or "the Company") (TSX
VENTURE:AOI)(OMX:AOI) is pleased to announce that an updated independent
assessment of the Company's contingent and prospective resources on its Kenyan
and Ethiopian exploration properties has been completed by Gaffney, Cline &
Associates ("Gaffney Cline", or "GCA"). The independent assessment was carried
out in accordance with the standards established by the Canadian Securities
Administrators in National Instrument 51-101 Standards of Disclosure for Oil and
Gas Activities. The effective date of the report is July 31, 2013.
It should be noted that these estimates do not include the Company's Puntland
(Somalia) oil and gas interests which is available at www.sedar.com under Horn
Petroleum Corporation, Africa Oil's 45% owned subsidiary.
Given the large quantity of prospects and leads in the Company's portfolio, the
following three tables have been prepared for the convenience of readers by
Africa Oil. Readers should refer to the tables attached to this News Release,
which have been prepared by Gaffney Cline, detailing the contingent oil
resources and prospective oil and gas resources by prospect and lead with the
associated geological chance of success:
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Summary of Contingent Oil Resources(1) as of July 31, 2013
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GROSS Best AOC NET Best
(2C) Estimate Working (2C) Estimate
Country Licence (MMbbl) Interest (%) (MMbbl)
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Kenya Block 10BB 280 50% 140
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Block 13T 87 50% 44
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Ethiopia Block 7/8(2) 155 30% 47
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Notes:
1. This summation of resources has been prepared for convenience by the
Company and not by Gaffney Cline & Associates.
2. Gross best estimate (2C) contingent gas resources of 106 BCF (32 BCF Net)
not included in table for Blocks 7/8.
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Summary of Prospective Oil Resources(1) as of July 31, 2013
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UNRISKED UNRISKED RISKED(2)
------------------------------------------------
NET
GROSS AOC NET Best
Best Working Best Estimate
Estimate Interest Estimate (Risked)
Country Licence (MMbbl) (%) (MMbbl) (MMbbl)
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Kenya Block 9 1,598 50% 799 96
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Block 10A 376 30% 113 14
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Block 10BA 9,836 50% 4,918 374
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Block 10BB 2,364 50% 1,182 302
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Block 12A 3,779 20% 756 38
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Block 13T 2,174 50% 1,087 382
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Ethiopia South Omo 2,641 30% 792 88
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------------------------------------------------------------------------
Summary of Prospective Gas Resources(1 )as of July 31, 2013
------------------------------------------------------------------------
UNRISKED UNRISKED RISKED(2)
------------------------------------------------
NET
GROSS AOC NET Best
Best Working Best Estimate
Estimate Interest Estimate (Risked)
Country Licence (BCF) (%) (BCF) (BCF)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Kenya Block 9 1,880 50% 940 376
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Block 10A 360 30% 108 38
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Notes:
1. This summation of resources has been prepared for convenience by the
Company and not by Gaffney, Cline & Associates.
2. Risked resources have been calculated and summed by the company after
risking prospects and leads individually. Geological Chance of success
(GCOS) varies with each prospect or lead.
Keith Hill, Africa Oil's President and Chief Executive Officer, commented:
"Gaffney Cline's independent assessment confirms a significant increase to
contingent and risked prospective resources in the Tertiary rift basins in Kenya
and Ethiopia. Based on the drilling and testing program over the past year we
have confirmed the South Lokichar Basin contains gross contingent resources of
368 million barrels of oil, an increase of 557%. In addition gross risked
prospective resources of 1,213 million barrels of oil are estimated for the
South Lokichar Basin. This level of resource exceeds the threshold for
development and development studies have commenced. We continue to aggressively
explore with three seismic crews active and are ramping up drilling activity
with plans to have a total of six rigs (four operated by Tullow Oil) operating
in the fourth quarter of 2013. We expect the next 18 months to be
transformational as we drill-out the prolific South Lokichar Basin and open up a
number of highly prospective basins on the Tertiary rift trend."
Africa Oil's holdings include working interests in operated and non-operated
Production Sharing Contracts (PSC's) in Kenya, Ethiopia and Puntland (Somalia)
in East Africa. These Blocks contain relatively under explored plays in basins
that have proven and productive analogs. Since the effective date (June 30,
2012) of Gaffney Cline's previous evaluation of prospective resources,
highlights of the Company's exploration activities in Kenya and Ethiopia
include:
-- Drilling and testing the Twiga South-1 well in Block 13T (Kenya)
resulting in an additional oil discovery and demonstrating high quality
Auwerwer sands containing light waxy sweet oil.
-- Production testing the Ngamia-1A discovery in Block 10BB (Kenya) which
significantly increased the assessment of net oil pay encountered by the
well;
-- Drilling the Etuko-1 well in Block 10BB (Kenya) resulting in an
additional oil discovery.
-- As a result of these additional South Lokichar Basin discoveries,
several prospects and leads in the Tertiary rift have been de-risked and
the volume of contingent oil resources has increased;
-- Drilling the Paipai-1 well in Block 10A (Kenya) demonstrating a working
petroleum system in the Anza Basin;
-- Drilling the Sabisa-1 well in the South Omo Block (Ethiopia)
demonstrating a working petroleum system in the South Omo Basin;
-- The acquisition of approximately 5,000 km of 2D seismic, increasing the
number of mapped prospects and leads;
Please refer to the tables below detailing the Company's contingent oil
resources and prospective oil and gas resources by prospect and lead as provided
by Gaffney Cline effective July 31st, 2013.
To view Tables 1-12, click on the following link:
http://media3.marketwire.com/docs/895788t.pdf
Africa Oil Corp. is a Canadian oil and gas company with assets in Kenya,
Ethiopia and Puntland (Somalia). Africa Oil's East African holdings are within a
world-class exploration play fairway with a total gross land package in this
prolific region in excess of 250,000 square kilometers. The East African Rift
Basin system is one of the last of the great rift basins to be explored. New
discoveries have been announced on all sides of Africa Oil's virtually
unexplored land position including the Albert Graben oil discoveries in
neighboring Uganda. Africa Oil's recent Ngamia-1A, Twiga South-1 and Etuko-1
discoveries extend the Albert Graben play into Kenya where Africa Oil, along
with partners Tullow and Marathon, hold a dominant acreage position. Newly
acquired seismic and gravity data show robust leads and prospects throughout
Africa Oil's project areas. The Company is listed on the TSX Venture Exchange
and on First North at NASDAQ OMX-Stockholm under the symbol "AOI".
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
Certain statements made and information contained herein constitutes
"forward-looking information" (within the meaning of applicable Canadian
securities legislation). Such statements and information (together, "forward
looking statements") relate to future events or the Company's future
performance, business prospects or opportunities. Forward-looking statements
include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to estimates of
reserves and or resources, future production levels, future capital expenditures
and their allocation to exploration and development activities, future drilling
and other exploration and development activities, ultimate recovery of reserves
or resources and dates by which certain areas will be explored, developed or
reach expected operating capacity, that are based on forecasts of future
results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable and assumptions of
management.
All statements other than statements of historical fact may be forward-looking
statements. Statements concerning proven and probable reserves and resource
estimates may also be deemed to constitute forward-looking statements and
reflect conclusions that are based on certain assumptions that the reserves and
resources can be economically exploited. Any statements that express or involve
discussions with respect to predictions, expectations, beliefs, plans,
projections, objectives, assumptions or future events or performance (often, but
not always, using words or phrases such as "seek", "anticipate", "plan",
"continue", "estimate", "expect, "may", "will", "project", "predict",
"potential", "targeting", "intend", "could", "might", "should", "believe" and
similar expressions) are not statements of historical fact and may be
"forward-looking statements". Forward-looking statements involve known and
unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results or
events to differ materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking
statements. The Company believes that the expectations reflected in those
forward-looking statements are reasonable, but no assurance can be given that
these expectations will prove to be correct and such forward-looking statements
should not be unduly relied upon. The Company does not intend, and does not
assume any obligation, to update these forward-looking statements, except as
required by applicable laws. These forward-looking statements involve risks and
uncertainties relating to, among other things, changes in oil prices, results of
exploration and development activities, uninsured risks, regulatory changes,
defects in title, availability of materials and equipment, timeliness of
government or other regulatory approvals, actual performance of facilities,
availability of financing on reasonable terms, availability of third party
service providers, equipment and processes relative to specifications and
expectations and unanticipated environmental impacts on operations. Actual
results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such
forward-looking statements.
ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD
Keith Hill, President and CEO
Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that
term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts
responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.
BASIS OF OPINION
This document reflects GCA's informed professional judgment based on accepted
standards of professional investigation and, as applicable, the data and
information provided by the Client and/or obtained from other sources e.g.
public domain, the limited scope of engagement, and the time permitted to
conduct the evaluation.
In line with those accepted standards, this document does not in any way
constitute or make a guarantee or prediction of results, and no warranty is
implied or expressed that actual outcome will conform to the outcomes presented
herein. GCA has not independently verified any information provided by or at the
direction of the Client and/or obtained from other sources e.g. public domain,
and has accepted the accuracy and completeness of these data. GCA has no reason
to believe that any material facts have been withheld from it, but does not
warrant that its inquiries have revealed all of the matters that a more
extensive examination might otherwise disclose.
The opinions expressed herein are subject to and fully qualified by the
generally accepted uncertainties associated with the interpretation of
geoscience and engineering data and do not reflect the totality of
circumstances, scenarios and information that could potentially affect decisions
made by the report's recipients and/or actual results. The opinions and
statements contained in this report are made in good faith and in the belief
that such opinions and statements are representative of prevailing physical and
economic circumstances.
This assessment has been conducted within the context of GCA's understanding of
the effects of petroleum legislation and other regulations that currently apply
to these properties. However, GCA is not in a position to attest to property
title or rights, conditions of these rights including environmental and
abandonment obligations, and any necessary licenses and consents including
planning permission, financial interest relationships or encumbrances thereon
for any part of the appraised properties.
In carrying out this study, GCA is not aware that any conflict of interest has
existed. As an independent consultancy, GCA is providing impartial technical,
commercial and strategic advice within the energy sector. GCA's remuneration was
not in any way contingent on the contents of this report. In the preparation of
this document, GCA has maintained, and continues to maintain, a strict
independent consultant-client relationship with the Client. Furthermore, the
management and employees of GCA have no interest in any of the assets evaluated
or related with the analysis carried out as part of this report.
Staff members who prepared this report are professionally-qualified with
appropriate educational qualifications and levels of experience and expertise to
perform the scope of work set out in the Proposal for Services.
This report has been prepared in accordance with GCA's understanding of the
requirements of Canadian National Instrument 51-101. In this context GCA has
followed the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook (COGEH); a copy of Chapter
5 of COGEH is attached hereto as Appendix I.
There are numerous uncertainties inherent in estimating reserves and resources,
and in projecting future production, development expenditures, operating
expenses and cash flows. Oil and gas reserve engineering and resource assessment
must be recognized as a subjective process of estimating subsurface
accumulations of oil and gas that cannot be measured in an exact way. Estimates
of oil and gas reserves or resources prepared by other parties may differ,
perhaps materially, from those contained within this report. The accuracy of any
reserve estimate is a function of the quality of the available data and of
engineering and geological interpretation. Results of drilling, testing and
production that post-date the preparation of the estimates may justify
revisions, some or all of which may be material. Accordingly, reserve estimates
are often different from the quantities of oil and gas that are ultimately
recovered, and the timing and cost of those volumes that are recovered may vary
from that assumed.
Oil and condensate volumes appearing in this report have been quoted at stock
tank conditions. Typically these volumes have been referred to in million barrel
increments (MMstb). Natural gas volumes have been quoted in billions of standard
cubic feet (Bscf). Standard conditions are defined as 14.696 psia and 60o
Fahrenheit.
It is GCA's opinion that the estimates of total remaining recoverable
hydrocarbon liquid and gas volumes at 31st July, 2013, are, in the aggregate,
reasonable and the resources classification and categorization is appropriate
and consistent with the definitions and guidelines and resources.
CONTINGENT AND PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES
Contingent Resources are those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given
date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations, but the applied
project(s) are not yet considered mature enough for commercial development due
to one or more contingencies. Contingent Resources may include, for example,
projects for which there are currently no evident viable markets, or where
commercial recovery is dependent on technology under development, or where
evaluation of the accumulation is insufficient to clearly assess commerciality.
Contingent Resources are further categorized in accordance with the level of
certainty associated with the estimates and may be sub- classified based on
project maturity and/or characterized by their economic status.
It must be appreciated that the Contingent Resources reported herein are
unrisked in terms of economic uncertainty and commerciality.
-- Low Estimate: This is considered to be a conservative estimate of the
quantity that will actually be recovered. It is likely that the actual
remaining quantities recovered will exceed the low estimate. If
probabilistic methods are used, there should be at least a 90 percent
probability (P90) that the quantities actually recovered will equal or
exceed the low estimate.
-- Best Estimate: This is considered to be the best estimate of the
quantity that will actually be recovered. It is equally likely that the
actual remaining quantities recovered will be greater or less than the
best estimate. If probabilistic methods are used, there should be at
least a 50 percent probability (P50) that the quantities actually
recovered will equal or exceed the best estimate.
-- High Estimate: This is considered to be an optimistic estimate of the
quantity that will actually be recovered. It is unlikely that the actual
remaining quantities recovered will exceed the high estimate. If
probabilistic methods are used, there should be at least a 10 percent
probability (P10) that the quantities actually recovered will equal or
exceed the high estimate.
There is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion
of the Contingent Resources.
Prospective Resources are those quantities of petroleum that are estimated, as
of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from undiscovered accumulations
by application of future development projects. Prospective Resources have both
an associated chance of discovery and a chance of development. Prospective
Resources are further subdivided in accordance with the level of certainty
associated with recoverable estimates assuming their discovery and development
and may be sub- classified based on project maturity.
There is no certainty that any portion of the Prospective Resources will be
discovered. If discovered, there is no certainty that it will be commercially
viable to produce any portion of the resources.
Prospective Resources include Prospects and Leads. Prospects are features that
have been sufficiently well defined, on the basis of geological and geophysical
data, to the point that they are considered drillable. Leads, on the other hand,
are not sufficiently well defined to be drillable, and need further work and/or
data. In general, leads are significantly more risky than prospects and
therefore are not suitable for explicit quantification.
Prospective Resource volumes are presented as unrisked. It must be appreciated
that Prospective Resources are risk assessed only in the context of applying the
stated 'Geological Chance of Success', a percentage which pertains to the
percentage probability of achieving the status of a Contingent Resource (where
the Geological Chance of Success is unity). This dimension of risk assessment
does not incorporate the considerations of economic uncertainty and
commerciality.
GCA is an energy consultancy specializing in independent petroleum advice on
resource evaluation and economic analysis. In preparation of this report, GCA
has maintained, and continues to maintain, a strict consultant - client
relationship with AOC. The management and employees of GCA have been and
continue to be, independent of AOC in the services they provide to the company
including the provision of the opinion expressed in this report. Furthermore the
management and employees of GCA have no interest in any assets or share capital
of AOC or in the promotion of the company.
Opinions concerning sub-surface petroleum resources are associated with
considerable uncertainty and represent best estimates based on the data
available at the time the opinion is given. The acquisition of new data in the
future and/or variations in economic circumstances and market forces may result
in significant upward or downward movements in revised total resource estimates.
RISKS AND CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS
Significant Positive and Negative Factors Relevant to the Resources Estimates:
This news release contains forward looking information including, but not
limited to, estimated resources. The forward looking information is based on
current expectations and is subject to a number of risks and uncertainties which
could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. These
risks include, but are not limited to the following:
Risks associated with ever making a discovery:
The estimation of prospective resource volumes for high-risk and poorly
calibrated basins can be subject to large variation from the introduction of new
information. The estimates presented herein are based on all of the information
available; however, new data or information is likely to have a material effect
on the resource assessment values. There is no certainty that any portion of the
resources will be discovered. If discovered, there is no certainty that the
discovery will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the resources.
Given that most of the resources in the portfolio are in leads that require
additional data to fully define their potential it is likely that significant
changes to the resource estimates will occur with the incorporation of
additional data and information.
Risk Associated with the Estimates:
In the event of a discovery, basic reservoir parameters, such as porosity, net
hydrocarbon pay thickness, fluid composition and water saturation, may vary from
those assumed by GCA affecting the volume of hydrocarbon estimated to be
present. Other factors such as the reservoir pressure, density and viscosity of
the oil and solution gas/oil ratio will affect the volume of oil that can be
recovered. Additional reservoir parameters such as permeability, the presence or
absence of water drive and the specific mineralogy of the reservoir rock may
affect the efficiency of the recovery process. Recovery of the resources may
also be affected by well performance, reliability of production and process
facilities, the availability and quality of source water for enhanced recovery
processes and availability of fuel gas. There is no certainty that certain
mineral interests are not affected by ownership considerations that have not yet
come to light.
Risk Associated with the Classifications:
Substantial Capital Requirements:
Africa Oil expects to make substantial capital expenditures for exploration,
development and production of oil and gas reserves in the future. The Company's
ability to access the equity or debt markets in the future may be affected by
any prolonged market instability. The inability to access the equity or debt
markets for sufficient capital, at acceptable terms and within required time
frames, could have a material adverse effect on the Company's financial
condition, results of operations and prospects.
Ability to Execute Exploration and Development Program:
It may not always be possible for Africa Oil to execute its exploration and
development strategies in the manner in which the Company considers optimal.
Execution of exploration and development strategies is dependent upon the
political and security climate in the host countries where the Company operates.
The Company's exploration and development programs in East Africa may involve
the need to obtain approvals from relevant authorities who may require
conditions to be satisfied or the exercise of discretion by the relevant
authorities. It may not be possible for such conditions to be satisfied.
Absence of a Formal Development Plan including Required Funding:
There is no certainty the Company will prepare and approve a development plan
for any portion of the contingent resources or that the Company will be
successful in funding any development should such a plan be prepared. General
market conditions, the sufficiency of such a development plan and the outlook
regarding oil and gas prices are some factors that will influence the
availability of funding.
Access to Infrastructure:
Africa Oil's ability to produce and market hydrocarbons from any potential
discoveries will depend on its ability to access suitable infrastructure. The
Company may also be affected by deliverability uncertainties related to the
proximity of its potential production to pipelines and processing facilities and
operational problems affecting such pipelines and facilities as well as
potential government regulation relating to price and the export of oil and gas.
Currently there is limited local infrastructure and markets for oil, natural gas
and condensate and export infrastructure to enable other markets to be accessed
has not yet been developed. Africa Oil will work with its partners and
government authorities to evaluate the commercial potential and technical
feasibility of any discovery made.
Additional Risks:
Additional risks associated with the estimate of the prospective and contingent
resources include risks associated with the oil and gas industry generally (i.e.
financing; operational risks in exploration, development and production; delays
or changes in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or
capital expenditures; the uncertainty of estimates and projections related to
production; costs and expenses; health, safety, security and environmental
risks; and the uncertainty of resource estimates), drilling equipment
availability and efficiency, the ability to attract and retain key personnel,
the risk of commodity price and foreign exchange rate fluctuations, the
uncertainty associated with dealing with governments and obtaining regulatory
approvals, and the risk associated with international activities.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT:
Africa Oil Corp.
Sophia Shane
Corporate Development
(604) 689-7842
(604) 689-4250 (FAX)
africaoilcorp@namdo.com
www.africaoilcorp.com
Africa Oil Corp. (TSXV:AOI)
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