Luxury Shares Feel the Pinch -- WSJ
11 Octobre 2018 - 9:02AM
Dow Jones News
By Matthew Dalton
This article is being republished as part of our daily
reproduction of WSJ.com articles that also appeared in the U.S.
print edition of The Wall Street Journal (October 11, 2018).
PARIS -- A mild slowdown at LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE,
the world's biggest luxury goods company, sent a shudder across the
sector Wednesday, pushing down stock prices amid fears that a
pullback by China's big-spending shoppers could end a yearslong
boom for the industry.
LVMH shares traded down more than 7% in Paris after executives
detailed third-quarter sales, disclosed Tuesday evening on a call
with analysts. Gucci parent Kering SA fell 10%, Burberry Group PLC
dropped more than 8% and Hermes International SCA was down
5.5%.
Louis Vuitton, LVMH's biggest brand, reported slightly slower
sales from Chinese shoppers during the third quarter, LVMH Chief
Financial Officer Jean-Jacques Guiony told investors and analysts
Wednesday. "But we are really talking about going from high-teens
[growth rate] to midteens," Mr. Guiony said.
The French luxury-goods conglomerate reported third-quarter
revenue of EUR11.38 billion ($13.08 billion), up 10% when adjusting
for currency impacts and other factors. But the figure marked a
decline from 11% in the second quarter and 13% in the first
quarter.
Those third-quarter numbers roughly hit market forecasts, but
analysts say LVMH needed to do better than that to reassure
investors. China's economic slowdown has cast a cloud over the
sector in recent months, raising fears that the industry would be
hit hard if Chinese shoppers rein in their spending. They are the
luxury industry's most important clientele, representing roughly a
third of all purchases globally.
Geopolitical tensions are also roiling the sector. Investors
fear a widening trade dispute between the Trump administration and
China could become a full-fledged trade war, hurting Chinese
consumers. Investors appear to be betting that negotiations between
the two nations to end the dispute will reach an impasse, said Luca
Solca, an analyst at Exane BNP Paribas.
"If that's the case, it's only rational you price a less
favorable environment for luxury," Mr. Solca said.
Concerns about China have sent LVMH shares down around 15% since
the end of August, when they were trading near an all-time
high.
Still, Mr. Solca said, "in the current numbers there's very
little you can show in the way of bad news."
LVMH is viewed as a bellwether for the luxury goods sector, with
dozens of brands including high-fashion house Dior, cognac maker
Hennessy, watchmaker TAG Heuer and dozens of others.
Mr. Guiony also highlighted weakness at some of LVMH's other
businesses. The U.S. watch market was weak, particularly for
watches priced less than $3,000, he said. "It's really bad below
$3,000," he said.
"We are having a tough period with TAG Heuer in the U.S.," he
added.
On Tuesday, the company said its fashion and leather-goods
division, which includes Louis Vuitton and accounts for more than a
third of total revenue, posted 14% organic sales growth in the
third quarter.
Sales at its perfumes-and-cosmetics division were up 11% in the
three months and its watches-and-jewelry arm was up 10%.
Investor concerns about luxury stocks were compounded by a
research note from Morgan Stanley, in which the bank's analysts
said they believed Chinese consumer confidence -- traditionally a
leading indicator for European luxury companies -- has peaked, with
a weaker trend expected in the second half.
--Anthony Shevlin contributed to this article.
Write to Matthew Dalton at Matthew.Dalton@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 11, 2018 02:47 ET (06:47 GMT)
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