3.D Risk factors
Risk management
We are exposed to a variety of risks that can affect our business performance, reputation and
licence to operate financially, operationally and in terms of compliance. Creating shareholder value is the reward for taking and accepting risk. Effective management of risk is therefore critical to whether we can achieve our strategic
objectives.
The risk landscape in 2018
The geopolitical
context remained unsettled during 2018, with rising trade tensions creating increased market volatility. We have, however, generally experienced a favourable market and pricing environment. While there have been inflationary cost pressures affecting
the industry, we have focused on delivering continued operational efficiencies through our
mine-to-market
productivity programme to defend our margins. Our solid cash
flows, underpinned by strong prices and cash from divestments, have further strengthened our balance sheet and decreased our liquidity risk. We have also maintained a strong discipline around capital allocation: returning cash to shareholders and
investing in high-quality long-term greenfield and brownfield projects.
In 2018, we continued to enhance our controls for managing operational
risks. In particular, we are strengthening how we manage the risks of major hazards through a Group-wide improvement programme, and are applying more rigorous cyber-security controls to deal with the evolving and growing threat of cyber attacks and
security exposures.
Our trading and sales and marketing teams have continued to develop a more sophisticated market interface with the ongoing
expansion of our Commercial division in Singapore. We are building a robust governance, risk and controls framework to support the Commercial team and to manage the strategic, financial and operational risks to which they are exposed.
We also continue to focus on managing risks relating to our relationships with governments, communities and key customers and suppliers. Our
partner-to-operate
strategy supports the creation and maintenance of mutually beneficial partnerships with key stakeholders, particularly host governments.
Our managed and
non-managed
joint ventures, particularly operations in places with higher sovereign risk,
continue to need close monitoring and active management. Our
non-managed
joint-venture portfolio is now better aligned with our strategic priorities and appetite for risk, after the sale of our interest in the
Grasberg mine in Indonesia. And we are continuing to refine our portfolio for a future carbon-constrained world, with the sale of our Australian coal assets.
You can see changes to our risk profile during 2018 on the following pages. For more detail on movements and the monitoring of these exposures, see
pages
34-51
(Business reviews),
76-141
(the Directors report) and the Notes to the financial statements on page 150 of the Annual report 2018.
Emerging risks
In the near term, we expect to face continued
macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty. The global economic cycle is expected to weaken due to monetary policy normalisation, the fading impacts of the US stimulus and weakening demand in China. We see the most significant short-term risks to be
the impact on market sentiment of continuing global trade tensions, the potential for a sharp and prolonged downward correction in global equities, and a worse-than-expected slowdown in the Chinese economy.
We are also mindful of the ongoing rise of populism in many of the markets in which we operate. This is likely to lead to increasing resource
nationalism and pressure from governments, communities and customers for a greater share of the wealth that our business creates. Related to this, we also see a tightening of scrutiny around foreign investments.
In the medium term, we see both threats and opportunities in technological disruption from mining and processing automation to machine learning
and artificial intelligence. We aim to use these technologies to improve productivity in increasingly sophisticated markets, while managing the social implications of automation in partnership with our host governments.
In the longer term, we predict increasing demand for sustainable working practices and a growing need to manage environmental and other risks to our
licence to operate, such as land reform. Climate change represents perhaps the greatest long-term threat to our business, but also brings opportunities. We will need to show resilience to the risks it poses physical, regulatory and market. A
low-carbon
economy may lead to structural shifts such as a step-change in recycling, but it will also fuel higher demand for commodities like copper and raw materials for batteries.
Already, societal expectations around water and closure management are changing. We have considerably enhanced our framework for managing water risk,
developing a comprehensive Water Risk Profile, Group-wide water metric and
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