Gold Investment Shift Leaves Market Vulnerable - BarCap
22 Septembre 2011 - 5:48PM
Dow Jones News
The changing makeup of gold investment makes the metal more
vulnerable to steep losses if sentiment toward the metal sours, the
managing director of commodities research at Barclays Capital said
Thursday.
While the introduction of physically-backed gold exchange-traded
products has been a key driver in gold's recent bull-run, this
development could also undermine the metal if the opportunity cost
of holding the metal rises, Kevin Norrish told the S&P GSCI
Commodities Seminar in London.
"You now have a very sophisticated investor base with very large
positions, so when things start to change, you could start to see a
lot of gold dumped on the markets," he said.
"When the opportunity cost turns negative, you could see a
problem," he added.
Nevertheless, rising opportunity costs remain some time off, and
Norrish maintained Barclays Capital's view that the metal will
trade above $2,000 a troy ounce next year.
In a widely-anticipated policy announcement late Wednesday the
U.S. Federal Reserve said it will implement "Operation Twist," a
move aimed at making credit cheaper and spurring spending and
investment.
The measure is also designed to pressure interest rates in the
long term, a boon for gold, which does not accrue interest and is
cheaper to store when rates are low.
-By Francesca Freeman, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)20 7842 9412;
francesca.freeman@dowjones.com