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12/9/2007 22:03
artes
Messages postés: 1509 -
Membre depuis: 15/12/2006
Nice move today
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Modifié le 12/9/2007 22:04
artes
Messages postés: 1509 -
Membre depuis: 15/12/2006
AP
Oil Hits $80 a Barrel for First Time
Wednesday September 12, 3:53 pm ET
By John Wilen, AP Business Writer
Oil Prices Reach $80 a Barrel for First Time After Government Reports Decline in Inventories
NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil futures prices rose sharply Wednesday, briefly climbing above a record $80 a barrel after the government reported a surprisingly large drop in crude inventories and declines in gasoline supplies and refinery activity. ../..
suite sur ../..http://finance.yahoo.com/
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12/9/2007 22:26
batcha
Messages postés: 2418 -
Membre depuis: 20/8/2007
De M5662321 Boursomarquer M5662321 Ignorer M5662321 Recommander ce message 0
IMMO US = MORT - FINI 22:22 12/09/07
http://tropicalbear.over-blog.com/
Crédit immobilier (US) : Les premiers gros impacts de la crise de juillet
L'impact de la crise des dérivés de crédit de juillet - août sur le marché du crédit hypothécaire, et sur l'immobilier US commence à produire ses premiers effets...et ceux-ci semblent assez spectaculaires.
Un premier avertissement avait été donné le 5 septembre avec la publication par l'association des agents immobiliers US du chiffre des promesses de vente de juillet, en baisse de 12% par rapport à juin et de 16% sur une base annuelle.
Deuxième signe : la publication des chiffres de vente de logements sur la région de Los Angeles en août, avec un effondrement des ventes de 25% en un mois et de 50% par rapport au même mois de 2006.
Article du Los Angeles Journal
Enfin, l'association "inside mortgage finance" vient de publier une étude sur l'ensemble des Etats-Unis, montrant une chute de 30% de la production de nouveaux prêts hypothécaires par rapport à août 2006.
Et précise que même les prêts de la catégorie "prime" (la catégorie d'emprunteurs la plus solide) sont concernés.
La restriction en cours de l'accès au crédit semble donc avoir déjà de grosses conséquences sur l'immobilier, qui était déjà engagé dans une récession depuis plusieurs mois.
Les prochains chiffres importants sur l'immobilier aux USA, pour une fin septembre/ début octobre à hauts risques sur les marchés :
- 25/9 : vente de logements anciens (août)
- 27/9 : vente de logements neufs (août)
- 2/10 : promesses de vente, logements anciens (août)
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4 de 8
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Modifié le 13/9/2007 01:20
artes
Messages postés: 1509 -
Membre depuis: 15/12/2006
Source LARRY LEVIN, date 13 Sep 2007 01:17
===================================
Dear Trader,
For those of you who are early risers, check me out on TV on Thursday morning as I go on with my pals at CNBC.
No big reports, just the weekly initial claims number. But that's a little something to talk about I guess.
I'm sure we'll talk about the upcoming Fed meeting on Tuesday, that's really the big story around here. So check me out, maybe I'll even surprise you with what I say!!!
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13/9/2007 07:17
maybe3
Messages postés: 98 -
Membre depuis: 21/8/2007
réaction du marché aux stats comme indicateur:
ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- Making sense of the stock market's reactions is never easy. But it appears to be especially inscrutable in the face of unexpectedly weak news on the employment front.
Sometimes it will rally in the face of such news. Yet, at other times, such as Friday, it will plunge.
Believe it or not, the market's behavior may not be so mysterious after all.
Let me start by reviewing what happened Friday. The Labor Department reported before the market open that nonfarm payrolls had dropped by about 4,000, far worse than the 115,000 increase that was the consensus expectation of a group of economists that MarketWatch had polled. See Economic Report
Chart of $INDU
The stock market plunged on the news. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU:
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$INDU13,291.65, -16.74, -0.1%) dropped some 160 points at the open, on its way to losing 250 points for the session.
To make sense of the market's varied reactions to seemingly bad news, I turned to an academic study from several years ago that examined the reaction to unemployment news., "The Stock Market's Reaction to Unemployment News: Why Bad News is Usually Good News for Stocks," was conducted by finance professor John Boyd of the University of Minnesota, Jian Hu of Moody's Investors Service, and finance professor Ravi Jagannathan of Northwestern University. See study
The researchers found that when the economy was in recession - as later determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the unofficial arbiter of when recessions begin and end - the stock market typically fell when the unemployment news was unexpectedly bad. But when the economy was in an NBER-declared expansion, more often than not the market rallied.
The reason the market reacts differently during recessions than during expansions, according to the researchers: When the economy is growing, the positive effect of a strong jobs report is more than outweighed by the negative effect of the interest-rate increases that such a report makes more probable.
Just the reverse is the case following a weaker-than-expected jobs report. Now the bad news of the jobs report is more than outweighed by the good news that the Fed will have less pressure on it to raise rates.
During recessions, in contrast, interest rate hikes are less of a threat. So a strong jobs report is taken at face value as good news, and a weaker-than-expected report is considered to be bad news.
The researchers' findings are summarized in the accompanying table.
Economy expanding Economy contracting
Job news unexpectedly goo Stock market likely to fall Stock market likely to rise
Job news unexpectedly bad Stock market likely to rise Stock market likely to fall
Based on the patterns the researchers found in their study, we can use the stock market's behavior as a barometer of whether the economy is more likely to be expanding or contracting.
Why, you might ask, do we even need such a barometer? Don't we already know if we're in a recession?
Unfortunately, not. Recessions typically aren't declared to have started by the NBER until months later. In some cases, in fact, the recession is over before the NBER confirms that it had even started.
So such a barometer could be helpful.
What does all this mean for today? The market's plunge Friday in the face of unexpectedly bad job news is yet another straw in the wind that the economy may be a lot weaker than previously had been thought.
As with all conclusions based on a statistical analysis of the historical precedents, this one comes with no guarantees. But I for one would be more confident in the economy's health if the stock market had risen Friday rather than fallen. End of Story
Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980.
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13/9/2007 07:42
0CC
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Membre depuis: 14/7/2007
The 'proxy war': UK troops are sent to Iranian border
British soldiers return to action as tensions between US and Iran grow
Exclusive by Kim Sengupta in Baghdad
Published: 12 September 2007
British forces have been sent from Basra to the volatile border with Iran amid warnings from the senior US commander in Iraq that Tehran is fomenting a "proxy war".
In signs of a fast-developing confrontation, the Iranians have threatened military action in response to attacks launched from Iraqi territory while the Pentagon has announced the building of a US base and fortified checkpoints at the frontier.
The UK operation, in which up to 350 troops are involved, has come at the request of the Americans, who say that elements close to the Iranian regime have stepped up supplies of weapons to Shia militias in recent weeks in preparation for attacks inside Iraq.
The deployment came within a week of British forces leaving Basra Palace, their last remaining base inside Basra city, and withdrawing to the airport for a widely expected final departure from Iraq. Brigadier James Bashall, commander of 1 Mechanised Brigade, based at Basra said: "We have been asked to help at the Iranian border to stop the flow of weapons and I am willing to do so. We know the points of entry and I am sure we can do what needs to be done. The US forces are, as we know, engaged in the 'surge' and the border is of particular concern to them."
The mission will include the King's Royal Hussars battle group, 250 of whom were told at the weekend that they would be returning to the UK as part of a drawdown of forces in Iraq.
The operation is regarded as a high-risk strategy which could lead to clashes with Iranian-backed Shia militias or even Iranian forces and also leaves open the possibility of Iranian retaliation in the form of attacks against British forces at the Basra air base or inciting violence to draw them back into Basra city. Relations between the two countries are already fraught after the Iranian Revolutionary Guards seized a British naval party in the Gulf earlier this year.
The move came as General David Petraeus, the US commander in Iraq, and Ryan Crocker, the US ambassador to Iraq, made some of the strongest accusations yet by US officials about Iranian activity. General Petraeus spoke on Monday of a "proxy war" in Iraq, while Mr Crocker accused the Iranian government of "providing lethal capabilities to the enemies of the Iraqi state".
In an interview after his appearance before a congressional panel on Monday, General Petraeus strongly implied that it would soon be necessary to obtain authorisation to take action against Iran within its own borders, rather than just inside Iraq. "There is a pretty hard look ongoing at that particular situation" he said.
The Royal Welsh battle group, with Challenger tanks and Warrior armoured vehicles, is conducting out regular exercises at the Basra air base in preparation for any re-entry into the city. No formal handover of Basra to the Iraqi government has yet taken place and the UK remains responsible for maintaining security in the region.
The Iraqi commander in charge of the southern part of the country, General Mohan al-Furayji, said he would not hesitate to call for British help if there was an emergency.
While previous US military action has been primarily directed against Sunni insurgents, it is Shia fighters, which the US accuses Iran of backing, who now account for 80 per cent of US casualties.
For the British military the move to the border is a change of policy. They had stopped patrols along the long border at Maysan despite US concerns at the time that the area would become a conduit for weapons into Iraq.
The decision to return to the frontier has been heavily influenced by the highly charged and very public dispute with the United States. British commanders feel that they cannot turn down the fresh American request for help after refusing to delay the withdrawal from Basra Palace. They also maintain that the operation will stop Iranian arms entering Basra.
Brigadier Bashall said: "We are not sitting here idly at the air bridge. The security of Basra is still our responsibility and we shall act where necessary. We are also prepared to restore order in Basra City if asked to do so."
The US decision to build fortifications at the Iranian border, after four years of presence in Iraq, shows, say American commanders, that the "Iranian threat" is now one of their main concerns.
Maj-Gen Rick Lynch, commander of the US Army's 3rd Infantry Division, said 48 Iranian-supplied roadside bombs had been used against his forces killing nine soldiers. "We've got a major problem with Iranian munitions streaming into Iraq. This Iranian interference is troubling and we have to stop it," he told The Wall Street Journal this week.
Meanwhile at a conference in Baghdad on regional co-operation, Iran claimed the US was supporting groups mounting attacks from Iraqi territory in the Kurdish north.
Said Jalili , Iran's deputy foreign minister, last night said: "I think [the US and its allies] are going to prevaricate with the truth because they know they have been defeated in Iraq and they have not been successful. And so they are going to put the blame on us, on the other side."
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7 de 8
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Modifié le 13/9/2007 13:35
artes
Messages postés: 1509 -
Membre depuis: 15/12/2006
Open House for all ! http://www.gemsbot.com/members/openhousedays.html
free days for guests
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8 de 8
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13/9/2007 21:22
artes
Messages postés: 1509 -
Membre depuis: 15/12/2006
OSCAR SAYS:
------------
Short Term Trading Live with Oscar GOLD MEMBER
September 13, 2007, 3:08 pm EDT
Oscar at Futurestraders.com has sent 1 Daily OMNI(s)
TRADE DATE:
GO TO OSCAR'S OMNI PAGE NOW!
*******************************************************
2nd FLASH UPDATE
S&P 500 & EMINI 03:06:11 PM EDT:
Sadly, the light volume holiday trading has stopped us out in ESZ7
Likely tomorrow we will see another extremely light day.
Be careful if you decide to trade Friday.
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