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Modifié le 27/9/2007 08:17
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Source : from Larry Levin , date 27 Sep 2007 04:12 , subject Secrets of Traders Newsletter and Trading Signals
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Warren Buffett
Pushes Us Higher!
Dear Trader,
Well today it was all Warren Buffett helping push this market higher. From the traders I talk to, pretty much everyone is afraid of being short for an extended period of time.
This market will still have its moves to the downside but there is one thing that is for sure: This market moves almost as quickly to the upside as it does to the downside.
So remember Friday is the last day of the month and the last day of the quarter. Watch for that day to be very active. Remember more opportunities means more risk.
Did you watch me yesterday on CNBC today. If not check it out:
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Modifié le 27/9/2007 09:16
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Source : http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070927/sallie_mae_buyout.html?.v=3
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AP
Group Wants Out of $25B Sallie Mae Deal
Thursday September 27, 12:07 am ET
By Marcy Gordon, AP Business Writer
Group of Investors That Planned to Buy Sallie Mae for $25 Billion Now Wants Out of the Deal
WASHINGTON (AP) -- A group of investors that had planned to buy student lender Sallie Mae for $25 billion now wants out of the deal, saying the current economic environment and legislation being signed by President Bush on Thursday make the terms no longer acceptable.
The group led by private-equity firm J.C. Flowers & Co. has told Sallie Mae it doesn't plan to complete the $60-a-share deal negotiated in April, though it is open to discussing new terms. Sallie Mae, the nation's largest student lender and officially known as SLM Corp., vowed Wednesday to pursue legal remedies against the investors.
The investor group has insisted in recent months that new student loan legislation being signed Thursday by President Bush could kill the deal. The measure will cut about $20 billion in federal subsidies to companies like Sallie Mae that make student loans while halving the interest rate on government-backed student loans.
The Flowers firm, in a statement, said the investor partners believe "that the conditions to closing under the merger agreement, if the closing were to occur today, would not be satisfied as a result of changes in the legislative and economic environment."
Sallie Mae insists that the deal can and should be consummated next month as planned. The company said in a statement that it "firmly believes that the buyer group has no contractual basis to repudiate its obligations under the merger agreement and intends to pursue all remedies available to it to the fullest extent permitted by law."
If the deal were to fall through, the acquisition agreement between Sallie Mae and the investor group comprised of the Flowers firm, Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. provides for a $900 million breakup fee payable by either side under certain conditions.
Shares of Reston, Va.-based Sallie Mae fell $1.24, or 2.7 percent, to $45.01 Wednesday.
The blowup over one of the world's largest private-equity takeover deals capped several months of rancorous back-and-forth and disputed claims between Sallie Mae and the investor group. It comes against a backdrop of weakness in the once-booming private-equity industry, which has stumbled in recent months as an acute squeeze in credit markets has caused investors to balk at financing big deals.
Buyout firms like Flowers -- which acquire public companies and take them private, restructure them and then sell them a few years later at a profit -- had been riding a wave of easy credit but recently have found it harder to persuade their bankers to finance takeovers.
Cerberus Capital Management LP in July had to inject more equity into its takeover of Chrysler Group from German automaker Daimler. More recently, The Home Depot Inc. lowered the sale price on its wholesale supply unit by 17 percent to complete its sale to private-equity firms. And last Friday, two private-equity firms backed out of their $8 billion buyout of upscale audio equipment maker Harman International Industries Inc.
A review by Sallie Mae said the new student loan legislation will reduce its "core earnings" net income between 1.8 percent and 2.1 percent each year over the next five years.
The two sides in the deal have differing interpretations of their acquisition agreement, signed in April, under which significant negative developments can nullify the deal. The company does not believe that the anticipated reduction in earnings rises to that level of significance.
"Sallie Mae seems eager to have its day in court," Kathy Shanley, an analyst at Gimme Credit, an independent research service on corporate bonds, wrote Wednesday. "We can't assess the odds of Sallie Mae prevailing on the legal merits of its case, since there is little if any precedent for this dispute. A court battle would certainly be entertaining for observers with no skin in the game, but it remains entirely possible that cooler heads may prevail and bring the parties back to the bargaining table."
Sallie Mae says that its financial performance was strong in the third quarter, with a robust level of new loans and an expected $100 million decline in write-offs for defaults on private student loans -- those not backed by the government and whose interest rates aren't capped -- compared with the second quarter.
SLM Corp.: http://www.salliemae.com
the link : http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070927/sallie_mae_buyout.html?.v=3
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27/9/2007 09:56
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Fourchette et retracement?
un avis?
Graphiques gratuits de fr.advfn.com
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Modifié le 27/9/2007 10:22
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à suivre aussi ( c est mal tracé :( )
Graphiques gratuits de fr.advfn.com
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27/9/2007 18:38
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U.S. Morning Call for Thursday, September 27, 2007
U.S. Preview
Global stocks are higher across the board today and the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong closed at a record high. The Nikkei closed today up +2.41%, Hong Kong +2.40%, China +1.24% and Australia +0.87%. European stocks are trading higher this morning as well with the DJ Stoxx 50 up +0.75%.
The European Central Bank loaned the most money at its penalty interest rate in almost 3-years yesterday. The ECB loaned 3.9 billion euros ($5.5 billion) at its marginal lending rate of 5% to an unamed bank or banks. The ECB has provided liquidity to its banking system since Aug 9 after the collapse of US subprime mortgages led to a credit market slump. The interest rate on the 3-month rate rose to 4.73% yesterday, close to the 6-year high of 4.76% posted on Sep 5.
Claims – Today’s weekly unemployment claims data is expected to show modest increases with a +5,000 increase to 316,000 in initial claims and a +11,000 increase to 2.555 mln in continuing claims. That would follow last week’s report of –9,000 to 311,000 for initial claims and –53,000 to 2.544 mln units for continuing claims. The initial claims series so far is fairly close to where it was before the banking crisis began in early-Aug, which suggests that there have not been any major net layoffs as yet in response to the crisis. The continuing claims series showed a sustained rise from mid-July through late August, but then fell sharply by –53,000 to 2.544 mln units in the latest week, leaving the series below the pre-crisis level. While the claims data is not currently flashing warning signs for the economy, market participants will continue to watch the labor market data very carefully for signs of emerging weakness, which would kick out a key underpinning for cons umer confidence during this difficult period.
Q2 GDP revision – Today’s Q2 GDP report is expected to show a slight downward revision to +3.8% from +4.0%. However, the markets are mainly looking ahead to GDP growth through year-end in the wake of the financial market crisis, which began in early August (about mid-way through Q3). The latest surveys indicate consensus expectations of +2.4% for Q3 GDP and +2.2% for Q4 GDP, followed by average growth of about +2.5% in 2008. Although the consensus expectation is for GDP growth to remain above 2% in the second half of 2007, the uncertainty of those forecasts is high and the possibility remains for a recession. Former Fed Chairman Greenspan recently put the chances of a recession at better than one-third.
New home sales – Today’s Aug new home sales report is expected to show a fairly large decline of –5.2% to 825,000, more than reversing July’s increase of +2.8% to 870,000. The expected report today of 825,000 would be a new 7-year low and below the former 7-year low of 830,000 posted earlier this year in March 2007. That low of 830,000 was down by a total of 40% from the record high of 1.389 mln units posted in July 2005. The sale of new homes is likely to take a new step down given the dysfunctional mortgage market and the probability of a continued decline in new home prices, which encourages potential home buyers to wait for a bottom before getting long a new home. The supply of new homes on the market was at 7.5 months in July, which was only mildly below the 16-year high of 8.3 months posted earlier this year in March 2007, indicating that there is still a huge supply of new homes on the market.
5-year T-note auction – The Treasury today will conduct its monthly 5-year T-note auction. The 12-auction averages for the 5-year are as follows: 2.42 bid cover, $147 mln in non-competitive bids, 2.38 bp tail to the median yield, 6.38 bp tail to the low yield, and 51% taken at the high yield. Indirect bidders (mainly foreign central banks) have taken an average of 30.2% of the last twelve 5-year auctions, which is moderately below the average of 37.2% across all recent Treasury coupon auctions
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27/9/2007 21:06
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AP
source : http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070927/economy.html?.v=47
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AP
New-Home Sales Tumble to 7-Year Low
Thursday September 27, 1:09 pm ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
New-Homes Sales Tumble in August to Lowest Level in 7 Years
WASHINGTON (AP) -- New-homes sales tumbled in August to the lowest level in seven years, a stark sign that the credit crunch is aggravating an already painful housing slump.
Sales of new homes dropped by 8.3 percent in August from July, the Commerce Department reported Thursday, driving down sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 795,000 units. That was the lowest level since June 2000, when sales clocked in at a pace of 793,000.
The home sales report came on the same day that the government reported a relatively brisk business growth rate in revised figures for the second quarter. But the 3.8 percent pace was less than previously estimated and it occurred before the credit crisis and its repercussions across the broad spectrum of the economy had taken hold.
The median sales price in August fell by 7.5 percent from a year earlier to $225,700. That was the biggest drop in percentage terms in nearly 37 years. The median price is the middle point at which half sell for more and half for less. The average sales price dropped by 8 percent in August from a year earlier to $292,000. That was the biggest decline in 17 years.
Sales fell in the South and the West in August compared with July. Sales, however, rose in the Northeast and Midwest.
The new-homes sales report, combined with other recent economic reports showing a sharp drop in demand for big-ticket manufactured goods in August, suggested the economy lost momentum as it headed into the fall.
On Wall Street, investors looked to the weak home sales report as justification for another rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The Dow Jones industrial average was up around 20 points in morning trading.
Another report issued by Commerce showed the economy staged a rebound in the spring before a credit crisis raised new fears about longer-term business health.
The economy's 3.8 percent growth rate in the April-to-June quarter was the strongest showing in just over a year. Although the new reading for the second quarter was slightly less robust than a previous estimate of a 4 percent growth rate, it nonetheless marked a substantial improvement over the feeble 0.6 percent growth rate registered in the prior quarter.
Gross domestic product is the value of all goods and services produced within the United States and is considered the best barometer of the country's economic health.
The increase in the rate of growth, though, is likely to be fleeting. A deepening housing slump and a painful credit crunch since the spring has darkened the mood of individuals and businesses alike. That has led analysts to predict that economic growth has slowed considerably in the quarter that ends Sunday.
The National Association for Business Economics says it believes growth in the third quarter -- the period from July through September -- slowed to a pace of around 2.4 percent. It predicts the growth rate in the final three months of this year will be around 2.5 percent. Others think growth will turn out to be weaker than those projections.
Fears that the troubled housing market and credit problems could short-circuit the six-year-old economic expansion have shaken Wall Street. The biggest worry is that people and businesses will cut back on their spending and investment, throwing the economy into a tailspin.
Former Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan, in an interview with The Associated Press last week, said the odds of a recession are now higher than one-in-three but are still under 50 percent.
To help protect the economy from the ill effects of the housing slump and credit crunch, the Federal Reserve last week slashed a key interest rate. The hope is that lower rates will induce more spending and investment and thus energize overall economic activity. Analysts believe another rate cut will come in late October.
Critical to the economy's outlook is the health of the jobs market.
In another report, fewer people signed up for unemployment benefits last week, raising hopes that the recent weakness in the jobs market won't be long lasting.
The second-quarter's bounce-back came even amid the continuing strain of a housing slump. Builders slashed spending on housing projects by 11.8 percent, on an annualized basis, in the spring. Other businesses, though, boosted investment and spending in the second quarter on such things as equipment and software and construction of new plants, office buildings and other things.
Company profits also gained ground in the spring. One measure showed that after-tax profits rose by 5.2 percent in the second quarter, up from a 1.5 percent gain in the first quarter.
But a credit crunch, which took a turn for the worse in the third quarter, could put pressure on companies and lessen their appetite to invest. Sales of big-ticket manufactured goods plunged in August.
The free flow of credit is important to the smooth functioning of the national economy. If credit becomes too difficult to get, it can put a damper on peoples' ability to buy big-ticket items such as homes, cars and appliances. And it can crimp businesses' capital investment and hiring.
The worst housing slump in 16 years is being painfully felt. Higher interest rates squeezed homeowners, especially "subprime" borrowers with blemished credit or low incomes. Foreclosures set records and late payments spiked. Lenders were forced out of business. Hedge funds and other investors in subprime-related mortgage securities got clobbered.
All that has caused stocks on Wall Street to careen wildly in the past few months.
President Bush, meanwhile, is continuing to get low marks for his economic stewardship. Just 37 percent approve of his handling of the economy in September, down from 41 percent in August, according to an AP-Ipsos poll.
source : http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070927/economy.html?.v=47
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Warren Buffett
Pushes Us Higher!
Dear Trader,
Well today it was all Warren Buffett helping push this market higher. From the traders I talk to, pretty much everyone is afraid of being short for an extended period of time.
This market will still have its moves to the downside but there is one thing that is for sure: This market moves almost as quickly to the upside as it does to the downside.
So remember Friday is the last day of the month and the last day of the quarter. Watch for that day to be very active. Remember more opportunities means more risk.
Did you watch me yesterday on CNBC today. If not check it out: