Lower Enrollment Weighs on UTI - Analyst Blog
03 Février 2012 - 10:45AM
Zacks
Macro-economic headwinds,
regulatory issues and lower students’ enrollment continue to weigh
upon Universal Technical Institute Inc. (UTI) that
went on to post lower-than-expected first-quarter 2012 results. The
quarterly earnings of 16 cents a share was way below the Zacks
Consensus Estimate of 27 cents, and dropped significantly from 42
cents earned in the prior-year quarter.
Net revenue for the quarter
declined 9.4% to $106.4 million from the prior-year quarter, and
came marginally ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $105
million. The fall in revenue reflects a decrease in average
undergraduate full-time student enrollment, partially offset by a
rise in tuition fees. Average revenue per student inched up 1.8% to
approximately $5,800.
Let’s Unveil the
Picture
The educational institute, which
provides professional automotive, diesel, collision repair,
motorcycle and marine programs, reported that average undergraduate
full-time enrollment dropped 10.7% to 18,300 in the first quarter
of 2012, after falling 11.3% in the fourth quarter of 2011. Student
starts for the quarter remained flat at 3,300 compared with the
prior-year quarter, reflecting an improvement over a decline of
14.5% and 32.5% witnessed in the fourth quarter and the third
quarter of 2011, respectively.
The company reported a 4%
year-over-year fall in the number of student applications received,
which however reflected a significant improvement from a decline of
8% experienced in the fourth quarter of 2011. Number of military
applications surged 35%. The number of high school applications
dropped 5%, whereas adult applications fell 8%.
Universal Technical’s leading
position in providing technical education to aspiring automotive
professionals and its business model of working closely with
leading original equipment manufacturers provide the company with a
competitive advantage. However, management hinted that the
regulation proposed by the Department of Education is weighing upon
student enrollments.
The Department of Education
proposed that an educational program could only qualify for Title
IV funds, if it helps in achieving gainful employment, which
includes the criteria of loan repayment rate and debt-to-income
ratios. The company derives a major portion of its revenues from
federal student financial aid programs, the Title IV programs. The
education institutions are also under the scanner due to the rise
in the default rate of student loans.
Universal Technical informed that
EBITDA in the quarter tumbled 43.1% to $13.2 million, whereas
EBITDA margin contracted 740 basis points to 12.4%. Operating
income plunged to $6.6 million compared with $16.9 million in the
year-ago period, whereas operating margin shriveled 810 basis
points to 6.2%. The fall in operating income was due to lower
top-line growth and rise in advertising expenses.
The company is ramping up its
advertising activities under brand revitalization initiatives.
Advertising expense climbed $2.5 million or 31% to $10.5 million
from the year-ago quarter, and now represents 9.9% of total
revenue, up from 6.8%. Management now projects advertising expenses
to be in the range of 9% to 10% of total revenue for fiscal
2012.
Enrollment Picture in
2012
Universal Technical remains
cautious about its performance in fiscal 2012. Management hinted
that both applications and new student starts showed a sequential
improvement during the first quarter of 2012. While the company
expects the new student starts to improve in the second half of the
year, the company warned that during the second quarter it could
drop in the high single-digit to low double-digit from the
prior-year period and will also fall sequentially.
Management warned that average
number of students for fiscal 2012 will drop at a low-teens rate,
and will consequently result in a mid to high single-digit revenue
decline.
To counter the sluggishness
currently witnessed in the student enrollment, amid the turbulent
environment and regulatory pressure, the company is pushing hard to
manage costs effectively, trying means to improve marketing
efficiencies and is focusing on launching new curriculum. Further,
to unlock its brand value, the company is coming up with a new tag
line and will be using UTI School logo.
Universal Technical further intends
to bring its current and potential students under the spectrum of
proprietary loan program by increasing its accessibility, and
enhance the count of need-based scholarships in fiscal 2012.
Other Financial
Details
Universal Technical, which competes
with Corinthian Colleges Inc. (COCO) and
Lincoln Educational Services Corporation (LINC),
boasted a debt-free balance sheet, and ended the quarter with cash
and cash equivalents of $51.1 million and shareholders’ equity of
$147.3 million. The company generated operating cash flow of $5.6
million during the quarter. Return on equity for the trailing four
quarters ended December 31, 2011, came in at 15.6% compared with
21.4% for the trailing four quarters ended September 30, 2011.
In December 2011, the company’s
board of directors announced a new $25 million share buyback
program, replacing the existing share repurchase authorization,
which had $23.7 million remaining at its disposal. However, the
company is yet to repurchase shares under the current
authorization.
Let’s
Conclude
Given the recent steps, such as
cost-containment efforts and focus on admission and operating
efficiencies, along with new curriculum program that may help the
company to afloat, we are maintaining our long-term ‘Neutral’
rating on the stock. However, waning economy, tough regulatory
environment and falling enrollments, which are adversely impacting
the top and bottom-line results, are well defined through our Zacks
#5 Rank that translates into a short-term ‘Strong Sell’
recommendation.
CORINTHIAN COL (COCO): Free Stock Analysis Report
LINCOLN EDUCATL (LINC): Free Stock Analysis Report
UNIVL TECH INST (UTI): Free Stock Analysis Report
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