Peet's Lags, Affirms Guidance - Analyst Blog
15 Février 2012 - 12:15PM
Zacks
Peet's Coffee & Tea Inc. (PEET) reported
fourth quarter 2011 adjusted earnings of 42 cents per share, which
lagged both the Zacks Consensus Estimate and the prior-year
earnings by 2.3% and by 13.0%, respectively. Adjusted earnings of
$1.49 per share also missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.3% in
fiscal 2011. However, earnings increased 12.0% from the
prior-year.
The adjusted earnings in fiscal 2011 exclude 16 cents per share
of expenses associated with a class action lawsuit, including
anticipated settlement and legal costs, while earnings in fiscal
2010 exclude 5 cents per share of legal and related expenses
incurred by the company for its response to the subpoena it
received from the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) in connection with
the FTC’s anti-trust review of the acquisition of Diedrich Coffee
by Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (GMCR).
The company reaffirms its 2012 earnings guidance to be in the
range of $1.70 to $1.80.
Revenues and Operating Profits
Net revenue climbed 11% for both the fourth quarter and fiscal
2011 to $101.6 million in the quarter and to $371.9 million in
fiscal year 2011. Strong sales growth was fuelled by grocery
business that was at its strongest at 29% for this quarter and 30%
for the year. Revenues, however, lagged the Zacks Consensus
Estimate of $103.0 million and $373 million.
Management stated that the quarter saw strong fundamentals and
robust business growth. Sales growth was strong across all
channels. The company thus reaffirmed its total net revenue to grow
around 10% for 2012.
Cost of sales increased to 52.7% based on total net revenue in
the reported quarter as compared with 45.7% last year, on the back
of higher coffee costs and higher milk costs and a mix shift
towards the specialty business. However, price increases and lower
shipping expenses partially offset the impact of these higher
costs.
Operating expenses, based on net revenue, came down to 28.2%
from 30.9% last year, owing to a favorable mix shift to the
specialty business, price increases across all channels, leveraging
overhead costs, and effective cost management in retail stores and
direct store delivery system.
Segment Details
Retail net sales moved up 3% to $56.5 million in the fourth
quarter 2011, from $54.7 million a year ago. The growth was
attributable to a 6% sales growth in beverages and pastries. Peet’s
ended the year with 196 stores versus 192 stores at the end of the
year 2010. It opened two stores in the quarter. However, operating
income for Retail plummeted 12.9% year over year to $7.1
million.
In fiscal 2011, retails net sales soared 4.5% to $214.3 million,
while the segment operating income plummeted 3.5% to $21.8
million.
Specialty segment’s net revenue climbed 22% to $45.1 million for
the quarter, compared with $36.9 million for the corresponding
period of fiscal 2010. Grocery business grew 29% over last year;
the foodservice and office business grew 20%; while home delivery
net revenue was flat. Specialty segment reported operating income
of $9.2 million, 8.7% lower than the year ago period.
In fiscal 2011, specialty net sales increased 22.5% to $157.6
million, while the segment operating income climbed 2.7% to $34.7
million.
Other Financial Details
At the end of year 2011, cash and cash equivalents plus
short-term and long-term marketable securities were $35 million, as
compared to $49 million at the end of fiscal 2010.
Total assets were $215.3 million at the end of fiscal 2011, with
shareholders’ equity of $178.0 million.
Peet’s Coffee & Tea is a growing company. The company’s high
quality standard and its variety are maintained by its vertically
integrated business model. Further, management expects momentum and
plenty of new growth opportunities for the company. It hopes to
deliver strong sales and earnings growth, while continuing to
explore and invest in additional growth initiatives.
However, the highly competitive nature of specialty coffee
category and the vulnerability of coffee prices to weather and
damage by pests concern us.
Currently, Peet’s, which competes with Coca-Cola
Enterprises Inc. (CCE) and Starbucks
Corporation (SBUX), holds the Zacks #3 Rank, which
translates into a short-term Hold rating. Over the long term, we
prefer to rate the stock as Neutral.
COCA-COLA ENTRP (CCE): Free Stock Analysis Report
GREEN MTN COFFE (GMCR): Free Stock Analysis Report
PEETS COFFE&TEA (PEET): Free Stock Analysis Report
STARBUCKS CORP (SBUX): Free Stock Analysis Report
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