ITEM 2. MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
Factors That May Affect Future Results
This Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q contains forward-looking statements, within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, that involve a number of risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause our actual results, performance, achievements or industry results to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. These factors include, but are not limited to: our ability to control costs and meet our labor needs in a rising wage, inflationary, and/or supply chain constrained environment; our ability to maintain current promotional intensity levels; the effects and duration of economic downturns and unemployment rates; our ability to achieve expected operating results, synergies, and other benefits from the Shoe Station acquisition within expected time frames, or at all; the potential impact of national and international security concerns, including those caused by war and terrorism, on the retail environment; general economic conditions in the areas of the continental United States and Puerto Rico where our stores are located; changes in the overall retail environment and more specifically in the apparel and footwear retail sectors; our ability to generate increased sales; our ability to successfully navigate the increasing use of online retailers for fashion purchases and the impact on traffic and transactions in our physical stores; the success of the open-air shopping centers where many of our stores are located and its impact on our ability to attract customers to our stores; our ability to attract customers to our e-commerce platform and to successfully grow our omnichannel sales; the effectiveness of our inventory management, including our ability to manage key merchandise vendor relationships and direct-to-consumer initiatives; changes in our relationships with other key suppliers; changes in the political and economic environments in, the status of trade relations with, and the impact of changes in trade policies and tariffs impacting, China and other countries which are the major manufacturers of footwear; the impact of competition and pricing; our ability to successfully manage and execute our marketing initiatives and maintain positive brand perception and recognition; our ability to successfully manage our current real estate portfolio and leasing obligations; changes in weather, including patterns impacted by climate change; changes in consumer buying trends and our ability to identify and respond to emerging fashion trends; the impact of disruptions in our distribution or information technology operations; the impact of natural disasters, public health and political crises, civil unrest, and other catastrophic events on our operations and the operations of our suppliers, as well as on consumer confidence and purchasing in general; the duration and spread of a public health crisis, such as COVID-19, and the mitigating efforts deployed, including the effects of government stimulus on consumer spending; risks associated with the seasonality of the retail industry; the impact of unauthorized disclosure or misuse of personal and confidential information about our customers, vendors and employees, including as a result of a cybersecurity breach; our ability to successfully execute our business strategy, including the availability of desirable store locations at acceptable lease terms, our ability to identify, consummate or effectively integrate future acquisitions, our ability to implement and adapt to new technology and systems, our ability to open new stores in a timely and profitable manner, including our entry into major new markets, and the availability of sufficient funds to implement our business plans; higher than anticipated costs associated with the closing of underperforming stores; the inability of manufacturers to deliver products in a timely manner; an increase in the cost, or a disruption in the flow, of imported goods; the impact of regulatory changes in the United States, including minimum wage laws and regulations, and the countries where our manufacturers are located; the resolution of litigation or regulatory proceedings in which we are or may become involved; continued volatility and disruption in the capital and credit markets; future stock repurchases under our stock repurchase program and future dividend payments. For a more detailed discussion of risk factors impacting us, see the “Risk Factors” section of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended January 28, 2023.
General
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations is intended to provide information to assist the reader in better understanding and evaluating our financial condition and results of operations. We encourage you to read this in conjunction with our Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements and the notes thereto included in PART I, ITEM 1 of this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q, as well as our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended January 28, 2023 as filed with the SEC. This section of this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q generally discusses our results for first quarter 2023 and first quarter 2022 and year-over-year comparisons between first quarter 2023 and first quarter 2022.
Referred to herein, first quarter 2023 is the thirteen weeks ended April 29, 2023 and first quarter 2022 is the thirteen weeks ended April 30, 2022.
Overview of Our Business
Shoe Carnival, Inc. is one of the nation’s largest omnichannel family footwear retailers. On December 3, 2021, we began operating under two banners: Shoe Carnival and Shoe Station. Our objective is to be the omnichannel retailer-of-choice for on-trend branded footwear for the entire family. Our product assortment, whether shopping in a physical store or on our e-commerce platform, includes dress, casual, and work shoes, sandals, boots and a wide assortment of athletic shoes. Our typical physical store carries shoes in two general categories – athletics and non-athletics with subcategories for men's, women's and children's, as well as a broad range of
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accessories. In addition to our physical stores, our e-commerce platform offers customers the same assortment of merchandise in all categories of footwear with expanded options in certain instances.
Our stores under the Shoe Carnival banner combine competitive pricing with a high-energy in-store environment that encourages customer participation. Footwear in our Shoe Carnival physical stores is organized by category and brand, creating strong brand statements within the aisles. These brand statements are underscored by branded signage on endcaps and in-line signage throughout the store. Our signage may highlight a vendor’s product offerings or sales promotions, or may highlight seasonal or lifestyle statements by grouping similar footwear from multiple vendors.
The Shoe Station banner and retail locations are a complementary retail platform for us to serve a broader base of family footwear customers in both urban and suburban demographics. The Shoe Station concept targets a more affluent family footwear customer and has a strong track record of capitalizing on emerging footwear fashion trends and introducing new brands. Due to the larger average size of our Shoe Station stores and the targeted, more affluent customer, these locations provide for a primary destination shopping experience. See Note 3 — “Acquisition of Shoe Station” to our Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements contained in PART II, ITEM 8 of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended January 28, 2023, for further discussion.
We believe our distinctive shopping experiences give us various competitive advantages, including increased multiple unit sales; the building of a loyal, repeat customer base; the creation of word-of-mouth advertising; and enhanced sell-through of in-season goods.
Critical Accounting Policies
We use judgment in reporting our financial results. This judgment involves estimates based in part on our historical experience and incorporates the impact of the current general economic climate and company-specific circumstances. However, because future events and economic conditions are inherently uncertain, our actual results could differ materially from these estimates. Our accounting policies that require more significant judgments include those with respect to Merchandise Inventories, valuation of long-lived assets, valuation of Goodwill and Intangible Assets, leases and income taxes. The accounting policies that require more significant judgment are discussed in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended January 28, 2023, and there have been no material changes to those critical accounting policies.
Results of Operations Summary Information
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Number of Stores |
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Store Square Footage |
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Beginning |
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End of |
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Net |
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End |
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Comparable |
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Quarter Ended |
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Of Period |
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Opened |
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Closed |
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Period |
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Change |
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of Period |
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Store Sales(1) |
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April 29, 2023 |
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397 |
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1 |
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1 |
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397 |
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5,000 |
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4,510,000 |
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(11.9 |
)% |
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April 30, 2022 |
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393 |
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2 |
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0 |
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395 |
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31,000 |
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4,450,000 |
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(10.6 |
)% |
(1)Comparable store sales is a key performance indicator for us. Comparable store sales include stores that have been open for 13 full months after such stores’ grand opening or acquisition prior to the beginning of the period, including those stores that have been relocated or remodeled. Therefore, stores recently opened, acquired or closed are not included in comparable store sales. We generally include e-commerce sales in our comparable store sales as a result of our omnichannel retailer strategy. Due to our omnichannel retailer strategy, we view e-commerce sales as an extension of our physical stores. E-commerce platforms associated with a physical store acquisition will not be included in comparable store sales until the initial physical stores are included. The 21 original Shoe Station stores acquired and the www.shoestation.com e-commerce site that went live in early February 2023 are included in comparable store sales calculations beginning in first quarter 2023.
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The following table sets forth our results of operations expressed as a percentage of Net Sales for the periods indicated:
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Thirteen Weeks Ended |
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Thirteen Weeks Ended |
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April 29, 2023 |
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April 30, 2022 |
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Net sales |
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100.0 |
% |
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100.0 |
% |
Cost of sales (including buying, distribution and occupancy costs) |
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65.0 |
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64.5 |
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Gross profit |
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35.0 |
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35.5 |
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Selling, general and administrative expenses |
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27.6 |
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24.4 |
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Operating income |
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7.4 |
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11.1 |
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Interest income, net |
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(0.2 |
) |
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0.0 |
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Income tax expense |
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1.7 |
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2.6 |
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Net income |
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5.9 |
% |
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8.5 |
% |
Executive Summary for First Quarter Ended April 29, 2023
For first quarter 2023, diluted net income per share (“EPS”) was $0.60, compared to $0.95 of EPS in first quarter 2022. The decrease in EPS was primarily driven by reduced Net Sales, which were down $36.3 million, or 11.4%. Store traffic was down approximately 10% and e-commerce traffic was down approximately 13% compared to first quarter 2022. We believe the reduced demand for footwear, and the decrease in volume sold by us, was primarily due to persistent inflation, a nearly 9% reduction in federal tax refunds compared to refunds in first quarter 2022 and unfavorable weather. Sales of spring seasonal product were down approximately 23% compared to first quarter 2022.
Despite the reduction in top-line sales and bottom-line earnings, first quarter 2023 ranked as a top-three first quarter in our history, only surpassed by the first quarters of fiscal 2022 and fiscal 2021. Our investments in customer relationship management (“CRM”) systems have continued to produce sustained higher gross profit margin, increased customer conversion and increased loyalty members compared to pre-CRM and pre-pandemic results in 2019. The benefits of our CRM program were key factors to maintaining the following results with traffic down and consumer spending delayed by weather and stressed by inflation and lower tax refunds:
•First quarter 2023 marked the ninth consecutive quarter gross profit margin exceeded 35%;
•Loyalty customers grew over 12% compared to first quarter 2022 to 32.7 million customers; and
•Store conversion climbed to the highest level in seven consecutive quarters.
We also progressed our plan to lower Merchandise Inventories. As of April 29, 2023, Merchandise Inventories were $44.5 million higher than as of April 30, 2022, down from $105.2 million higher at year end fiscal 2022 compared to year end fiscal 2021, just three months ago. Our goal is that by year end fiscal 2023, Merchandise Inventories will be approximately $40 million lower than year end fiscal 2022. We also began to rebalance Merchandise Inventories and expect to carry a broader assortment of footwear for the back-to-school shopping season with an improved selection of athletic inventory. Last year, athletic footwear availability and related sales in the back-to-school time frame were significantly impacted by a constrained supply chain.
Year end fiscal 2022 marked the 18th consecutive year we ended the year with no debt, and through first quarter 2023, we also funded our operations without debt. As of April 29, 2023, we had $44.1 million of Cash, Cash Equivalents and Marketable Securities and $99.3 million in borrowing capacity.
We ended first quarter 2023 with 397 total stores, 372 Shoe Carnival stores and 25 Shoe Station stores. In first quarter 2023, we opened one Shoe Station store, went live with the Shoe Station e-commerce site, www.shoestation.com, and closed one Shoe Carnival store. We expect to operate over 400 stores in third quarter 2023.
Results of Operations for First Quarter Ended April 29, 2023 Compared to First Quarter Ended April 30, 2022
Net Sales
Net Sales were $281.2 million during first quarter 2023 and decreased 11.4% compared to first quarter 2022, due to an 11.9% comparable store sales decline resulting from decreased traffic in our physical stores and our e-commerce sites. We believe the lower traffic resulted from persistent inflation and a reduction in federal tax refunds compared to first quarter 2022. Unfavorable weather also impacted Net Sales, with sales of spring seasonal product down approximately 23% in first quarter 2023 compared to first quarter 2022. The decrease was partially offset by Net Sales attributable to new stores, mostly new Shoe Station stores. E-commerce sales were approximately 8% of merchandise sales in first quarter 2023, compared to 11% in first quarter 2022.
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Gross Profit
Gross Profit was $98.5 million during first quarter 2023, a decrease of $14.3 million compared to first quarter 2022. Gross profit margin in first quarter 2023 was 35.0% compared to 35.5% in first quarter 2022. Merchandise margin decreased 30 basis points, reflecting an increase in promotional intensity in first quarter 2023 compared to first quarter 2022 on lower volumes sold. Buying, distribution and occupancy (“BDO") costs were lower in the quarter compared to first quarter 2022; however, BDO decreased gross profit margin by 20 basis points. The BDO costs were lower in first quarter 2023 as freight and distribution costs declined versus 2022 through active management, contract renegotiation and normalization.
Selling, General and Administrative Expenses (“SG&A”)
SG&A were $77.6 million in first quarter 2023, near flat compared to $77.5 million in first quarter 2022, with higher depreciation and healthcare costs offset by reduced selling costs. The higher depreciation resulted from our store modernization program. As a percentage of Net Sales, SG&A were 27.6% in first quarter 2023 compared to 24.4% in first quarter 2022.
Interest Income and Interest Expense
Changes in our interest income and expense increased our income before taxes by $0.5 million in first quarter 2023 compared to first quarter 2022. This increase was primarily due to higher interest earned on invested cash balances and lower unused commitment fees under our current credit agreement as compared to our prior credit agreement.
Income Taxes
The effective income tax rate for first quarter 2023 was 22.6% compared to 23.8% for first quarter 2022. Our provision for income taxes is based on the current estimate of our annual effective tax rate and is adjusted as necessary for quarterly events. The lower quarterly effective tax rate was primarily due to one discrete item related to a higher stock-based compensation benefit, leveraged over lower pre-tax income. For the full 2023 fiscal year, we expect our tax rate to be between 24% and 26% compared to the 25.2% effective tax rate recognized during the full 2022 fiscal year.
Liquidity and Capital Resources
Our primary sources of liquidity are $44.1 million of Cash, Cash Equivalents and Marketable Securities on hand at the end of the first quarter 2023, cash generated from operations and availability under our $100 million credit agreement. We believe our resources will be sufficient to fund our cash needs, as they arise, for at least the next 12 months. Our primary uses of cash are normally for working capital, which are principally inventory purchases, investments in our stores, such as new stores, remodels and relocations, distribution center initiatives, lease payments associated with our real estate leases, potential dividend payments, potential share repurchases under our share repurchase program and the financing of capital projects, including investments in new systems. As part of our growth strategy, we may also pursue strategic acquisitions of other footwear retailers.
Cash Flow - Operating Activities
Net cash generated from operating activities was $2.1 million in first quarter 2023 compared to $17.7 million during first quarter 2022. The change in operating cash flow was primarily driven by decreased Net Sales in first quarter 2023.
Working capital increased on a year-over-year basis and totaled $318.3 million at April 29, 2023 compared to $271.8 million at April 30, 2022. The increase was primarily attributable to lower Accounts Payable and higher Merchandise Inventory levels, partially offset by lower cash balances due to investment in Property and Equipment related to our store portfolio modernization plan. Our current ratio was 3.4 as of April 29, 2023 compared to 2.4 as of April 30, 2022.
Cash Flow – Investing Activities
Our cash outflows for investing activities are normally for capital expenditures. During the first quarters of 2023 and 2022, we expended $15.0 million and $26.9 million, respectively, for the purchase of Property and Equipment, primarily related to our store portfolio modernization plan.
We invest in publicly traded mutual funds designed to mitigate income statement volatility associated with our nonqualified deferred compensation plan. The balance of these Marketable Securities was $11.5 million at April 29, 2023, compared to $11.6 million at January 28, 2023 and $11.0 million at April 30, 2022. Additional information can be found in Note 3 — “Fair Value Measurements” to our Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements contained in PART I, ITEM 1 of this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q.
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Cash Flow – Financing Activities
Our cash outflows for financing activities are typically for cash dividend payments, share repurchases or payments on our credit agreement. Shares of our common stock can be either acquired as part of a publicly announced repurchase program or withheld by us in connection with employee payroll tax withholding upon the vesting of stock-based compensation awards that are settled in shares. Our cash inflows from financing activities generally reflect stock issuances to employees under our Employee Stock Purchase Plan and borrowings under our credit agreement.
During first quarter 2023, net cash used in financing activities was $5.8 million compared to $25.1 million during first quarter 2022. The decrease in net cash used in financing activities was primarily due to the repurchase of $20.5 million of shares in first quarter 2022 under our Board of Directors’ authorized share repurchase program. No share repurchases were made in first quarter 2023.
Capital Expenditures
Capital expenditures for Fiscal 2023, including actual expenditures in first quarter 2023, are expected to be between $60 million and $70 million, with approximately $55 million to $60 million to be used for new stores and modernization and approximately $5 million to $10 million for upgrades to our distribution center and e-commerce platform, various other store improvements, continued investments in technology and normal asset replacement activities. The resources allocated to projects are subject to near-term changes depending on ongoing supply chain disruptions and potential inflationary and other macroeconomic impacts. Furthermore, the actual amount of cash required for capital expenditures for store operations depends in part on the number of stores opened, relocated, and remodeled, and the amount of lease incentives, if any, received from landlords. The number of new store openings and relocations will be dependent upon, among other things, the availability of desirable locations, the negotiation of acceptable lease terms and general economic and business conditions affecting consumer spending.
Store Portfolio
We opened one Shoe Station branded store and closed one Shoe Carnival branded store in first quarter 2023. Increasing market penetration by adding new stores is a key component of our growth strategy. We are on track to operate over 400 stores in third quarter 2023 and are targeting operating over 500 stores in 2028. This increased scale will be accomplished through a combination of both organic and acquired store growth. We believe our current store footprint provides for growth in new markets within the United States as well as fill-in opportunities within existing markets. In the near term, we expect to pursue fill-in opportunities for store growth across large and mid-size markets as we continue to leverage customer data from our CRM program. We believe more attractive real estate options will be available with the addition of the Shoe Station retail concept to our portfolio and aim to grow the Shoe Station banner to over 100 stores over the same time period. However, our future store growth may continue to be impacted by macroeconomic uncertainty and our ability to identify desirable locations and/or acquisition partners.
Credit Agreement
On March 23, 2022, we entered into a $100 million Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “Credit Agreement”), which replaced our prior credit agreement. The Credit Agreement is collateralized by our inventory, expires on March 23, 2027, and uses a Secured Overnight Financing Rate ("SOFR") as quoted by The Federal Reserve Bank of New York as the basis for financing charges. Material covenants associated with the Credit Agreement require that we maintain a minimum net worth of $250 million and a consolidated interest coverage ratio of not less than 3.0 to 1.0. We were in compliance with these covenants as of April 29, 2023.
The Credit Agreement contains certain restrictions. However, as long as our consolidated EBITDA is positive and there are either no or low borrowings outstanding, we expect these restrictions would have no impact on our ability to pay cash dividends, execute share repurchases or facilitate acquisitions from cash on hand. The Credit Agreement stipulates that cash dividends and share repurchases of $15 million or less per fiscal year can be made without restriction as long as there is no default or event of default before and immediately after such distributions. We are also permitted to make acquisitions and pay cash dividends or repurchase shares in excess of $15 million in a fiscal year provided that (a) no default or event of default exists before and immediately after the transaction and (b) on a proforma basis, the ratio of (i) the sum of (A) our consolidated funded indebtedness plus (B) three times our consolidated rental expense to (ii) the sum of (A) our consolidated EBITDA plus (B) our consolidated rental expense is less than 3.5 to 1.0. Among other restrictions, the New Credit Agreement also limits our ability to incur additional secured or unsecured debt to $20 million.
The Credit Agreement bears interest, at our option, at (1) the agent bank’s base rate plus 0.0% to 1.0% or (2) Adjusted Term SOFR plus 0.9% to 1.9%, depending on our achievement of certain performance criteria. A commitment fee is charged at 0.2% to 0.3% per annum, depending on our achievement of certain performance criteria, on the unused portion of the lenders’ commitment. During first quarter 2023, we did not borrow or repay funds under the Credit Agreement. Letters of credit outstanding were $700,000 at April 29, 2023 and our borrowing capacity was $99.3 million.
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The terms “net worth”, “consolidated interest coverage ratio”, “consolidated funded indebtedness”, “consolidated rental expense”, “consolidated EBITDA”, “base rate” and “Adjusted Term SOFR” are defined in the Credit Agreement.
Dividends
On March 14, 2023, the Board of Directors approved the payment of a first quarter 2023 cash dividend to our shareholders. The quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share was paid on April 17, 2023 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on April 3, 2023. In first quarter 2022, the dividend paid was $0.09 per share. During the first quarters of 2023 and 2022, we returned $2.9 million and $2.6 million, respectively, to our shareholders through our quarterly cash dividends.
The declaration and payment of any future dividends are at the discretion of the Board of Directors and will depend on our results of operations, financial condition, business conditions and other factors deemed relevant by our Board of Directors, subject to restrictions as outlined above in the “Credit Agreement” discussion. See Note 9 — “Debt” to our Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements contained in PART II, ITEM 8 of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended January 28, 2023 for a further discussion of the Credit Agreement.
Share Repurchase Program
On December 14, 2022, our Board of Directors authorized a share repurchase program for up to $50.0 million of our outstanding common stock, effective January 1, 2023 (the “2023 Share Repurchase Program”). The purchases may be made in the open market or through privately negotiated transactions from time-to-time through December 31, 2023 and in accordance with applicable laws, rules and regulations. The 2023 Share Repurchase Program may be amended, suspended or discontinued at any time and does not commit us to repurchase shares of our common stock. We have funded, and intend to continue to fund, share repurchases from cash on hand, and any shares acquired will be available for stock-based compensation awards and other corporate purposes. The actual number and value of the shares to be purchased will depend on the performance of our stock price and other market and economic factors and are subject to restrictions as outlined above in the “Credit Agreement” discussion. See Note 9 — “Debt” to our Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements contained in PART II, ITEM 8 of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended January 28, 2023 for a further discussion of the Credit Agreement.
No share repurchases have been made to date in Fiscal 2023. During first quarter 2022, we repurchased 682,886 shares of common stock at a total cost of $20.5 million.
Seasonality
We have three distinct peak selling periods: Easter, back-to-school and Christmas. Our operating results depend significantly upon the sales generated during these periods. To prepare for our peak shopping seasons, we must order and keep in stock significantly more merchandise than we would carry during other periods of the year. Any unanticipated decrease in demand for our products or a supply chain disruption that reduces inventory availability during these peak shopping seasons could reduce our Net Sales and Gross Profit and negatively affect our profitability.