In a repeat of the 2020 experience, after a very strong third
quarter, home prices across the United States continued to climb in
October albeit at a slower pace than in September. Radian HPI rose
at an annualized rate of 17.3 percent in the month of October,
slightly below the 17.6 percent recorded in the prior month,
according to Radian Home Price Index (HPI) data released today by
Red Bell Real Estate, LLC, a Radian Group Inc. company (NYSE:RDN).
The company believes the Radian HPI is the most comprehensive and
timely measure of U.S. housing market prices and conditions
available in the market today.
This press release features multimedia. View
the full release here:
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211118006245/en/
Radian Home Price Index (HPI) Infographic
November 2021 (Graphic: Business Wire)
While the one-month trend was slightly lower, in the twelve
months since November 2020, the Radian HPI increased nationally by
12.9 percent. This pace represented yet another month that this
metric delivered an all-time year-over-year record and was the
second-best month-over-month appreciation rate of 2021. The Radian
HPI is calculated based on the estimated values of more than 70
million unique addresses each month, covering all single-family
property types and geographies.
“The slowdown in the national appreciation rate in October marks
the first month-over-month decline in three quarters. However, the
U.S. winter buying season typically means lower activity, so this
slowdown may simply represent seasonal impacts,” noted Steve
Gaenzler, SVP of Data and Analytics. Gaenzler added that, “Seeing
slowdowns in the historic rates of appreciation may be helpful as
affordability continues to be impacted by the rapid pace of
appreciation in many metro areas. Existing homeowners have been
material benefactors of this appreciation, but at the potential
expense of many looking to enter the market for the first
time.”
NATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS
- Median estimated home price in the U.S. rose to $298,748
- October records lowest count of active listings for any
October, on continued inventory slump
Nationally, the median estimated price for single-family and
condominium homes rose to $298,748. Since the start of 2021, the
median estimated home price in the U.S. has increased more than
$30,000, nearly double the absolute increase recorded nationally in
the first 10 months of the prior year. By region, median home
estimates are more than $60,000 higher in the West region than they
were at the end of 2020; the highest regional dollar gain so far
this year. Prices in the Midwest region are higher by $17,000 over
the same period, representing the smallest absolute gain by a
region.
Nationally, supply and demand remain substantially imbalanced
relative to long-term trends. Counts of residential homes listed
for sale were significantly lower in October compared to any
previous October. In total, the number of actively listed homes for
sale was 40 percent lower than the average pre-COVID October going
back to 2007, and more than 15 percent lower than October of 2020,
the prior low for October listings. On the demand side, closed
sales of previously listed properties were down in October marking
the fourth consecutive month of falling sales. However, October’s
sales counts were the second highest ever for an October month, and
absorbed a record 33 percent of the prior month’s aggregate listing
counts.
For a calendar year, last year set a record for homes sales
volume. Through the first 10 months of 2021, aggregate home sales
were 5 percent higher than the same period in 2020, making it
likely that 2021 will establish a new record for sales volume in
the United States. The combination of all-time record sales volume
with significant supply challenges continues to be the driving
force behind increasing home values throughout 2021.
REGIONAL DATA AND TRENDS
- Most Regions reported lower appreciation rates for house prices
in October
- West region records largest decline, while South continues to
be strongest
The national experience of slightly slower price appreciation
played out similarly across most of the six Regional indices. In
October, the annualized price gains from the month prior were lower
in four of the six tracked regions. The exceptions to slower rates
of appreciation were in the MidAtlantic and South regions which
both set all-time highs for one-month appreciation rates. For the
remaining four regions, October represented the second strongest
appreciation month of the year. Whereas the Midwest region
possessed the largest annual increase a year ago, this year the
South region holds the title. The South region is the only region
to have ever recorded a one-month (annualized) rate of appreciation
in excess of 20 percent, and October was the second consecutive
month this was achieved.
At the state level, in the last 12 months (October 2020 through
October 2021), home price appreciation rose in all 50 states,
ranging from an increase of 4 percent to the strongest gain of more
than 30 percent in the state of Idaho. After Idaho, Montana, Maine
and Arizona recorded the highest appreciation rates over the last
year. In total, 41 states have recorded double digit increases in
median home prices.
METROPOLITAN AREA DATA AND TRENDS
- Less than half of top cities record faster appreciation in most
recent month
- Three of top five cities located in the South region
In October, six of the top 20 metropolitan areas (CBSAs)
reported faster appreciation rates than the prior month, with Miami
recording the fastest monthly appreciation rate of 2021. The South
region was the best performing region in October. In fact, three of
the top 4 performing CBSAs last month were in the South. Boston,
St. Louis and Detroit recorded the most significant slowdowns in
appreciation rate, and Boston, Baltimore and Minneapolis recorded
the slowest rates of appreciation in October.
Looking at the 50 largest cities across the country, 18 of them
reported faster appreciation rates in October as compared to a
month earlier. Over the past 12 months, Boise, ID, Bridgeport, CT,
Austin, TX, Phoenix, AZ and Charlotte, NC recorded the fastest
rates of appreciation within the top 50 cities. So far in 2021,
Boise has the largest dollar gain of the top 50 cities with median
estimated values more than $70,000 higher than the end of 2020.
Changes in composition of homes, including many new construction
units larger and more expensive than pre-COVID housing stock, is
helping to increase the median estimated home value.
ABOUT THE RADIAN HPI
Red Bell Real Estate, LLC, a subsidiary of Radian Group Inc.,
provides national and regional indices for download at
radian.com/hpi, along with information on how to access the full
library of indices.
Additional content on the housing market can also be found on
the Radian Insights page located at
https://radian.com/news-and-knowledge/insights.
Red Bell offers the Radian HPI data set along with a client
access portal for content visualization and data extraction. The
engine behind the Radian HPI has created more than 100,000 unique
data series, which are updated on a monthly basis.
The Radian HPI Portal is a self-service data and visualization
platform that contains a library of thousands of high-value indices
based on both geographic dimensions as well as by market, or
property attributes. The platform provides monthly updated access
to nine different geographic dimensions, from the national level
down to zip codes. In addition, the Radian HPI provides unique
insights into market changes, conditions and strength across
multiple property attributes, including bedroom count and livable
square footage. To help enhance customers’ understanding of
granular real estate markets, the library is expanded regularly to
include more insightful indices.
In addition to the services offered by its Red Bell subsidiary,
Radian is ensuring the American dream of homeownership responsibly
and sustainably through products and services that include
industry-leading mortgage insurance and a comprehensive suite of
mortgage, risk, title, valuation, asset management and other real
estate services. The company is powered by technology, informed by
data and driven to deliver new and better ways to transact and
manage risk.
Visit http://www.radian.com to see how Radian is shaping the
future of mortgage and real estate services.
View source
version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211118006245/en/
For Investors John Damian – 215.231.1383
john.damian@radian.com
For the Media Rashi Iyer – 215.231.1167
rashi.iyer@radian.com
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