Trump's Victory Shakes Europe's Geopolitical Order
10 Novembre 2016 - 6:40AM
Dow Jones News
For the second time in less than five months, European leaders
have woken up to a vote that has shaken the continent's
geopolitical order.
If anything, the election of Donald Trump was more shattering
than Britain's decision to leave the European Union.
The votes in two of the world's most open and
market-orientedeconomies both suggested dissatisfaction with
globalization and economic integration. Mr. Trump's election has
raised questions about whether the U.S. will continue to extend the
unconditional security guarantee that has underpinned European
prosperity since World War II.
The vote ushers in a period of high uncertainty and anxiety for
European governments. Election promises are often forgotten and Mr.
Trump has contradicted himself and often changed his tone and
emphasis.
But in his campaign speeches, Mr. Trump has provoked nervousness
in Central and Eastern Europe by calling into question American
support for the Western alliance and with his embrace of Russian
leader Vladimir Putin. He has suggested he favors increasing trade
barriers to protect American industries.
Mr. Trump has described climate change as a hoax, calling into
question the survival of a global pact to curb climate emissions.
Another worry is that economic uncertainty generated by his
election could threaten Europe's still-faltering recovery.
For European governments, Mr. Trump's statements raise questions
about American willingness to act as a global leader and therefore
the survival of the American-led world order. Yet if the U.S. does
retreat, Europe, beset by migration and other crises, appears too
divided on national lines to fill the vacuum.
"We do not know what to expect from the U.S.A.," said Manfred
Weber, the leader of the center-right European People's Party
grouping in the European Parliament. "For the political culture in
Europe, this is another wake-up call."
In a joint letter, the heads of the European Council, Donald
Tusk, and the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, said that
"today, it is more important than ever to strengthen trans-Atlantic
relations." But in calling for cooperation, they emphasized
policies over which Mr. Trump has expressed skepticism, including
the conflict in eastern Ukraine, climate change and migration.
Mr. Trump's success, like the Brexit vote, has been widely
interpreted in Europe as a victory for the politics of cultural
identity. Ahead of elections next year in France, Germany and the
Netherlands, European governments are looking over their shoulders
at their own antiestablishment parties.
Among the first to congratulate Mr. Trump was presidential
contender Marine Le Pen of France's National Front, who tweeted:
"Congratulations to the new president of the United States Donald
Trump and to the American people, free!"
Dutch anti-Islam politician Geert Wilders wrote on his official
Twitter page: "The people are taking their country back. So will
we."
In seeking to navigate relations with the new administration,
European leaders face another challenge: they don't know the
president-elect or his entourage.
They have been suspicious of his rhetoric and have held Mr.
Trump at arm's length during the campaign. Mr. Trump's sudden
emergence into the political arena also means he doesn't have a
team of well-known Republicans to whom they can reach out—though
that may change as he builds a foreign-policy team. American
diplomats, even as they attempted to reassure allies of the
historical continuity of American foreign and security policy,
don't know him either.
In fact, the European politician who knows Mr. Trump best is
almost certainly Nigel Farage, who led the successful campaign to
take the U.K. out of the EU.
On the face of it, the person best equipped to get the measure
of Mr. Trump would be German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the most
powerful and long-serving European leader. Though he severely
criticized her decision to let in refugees in 2015, Mr. Trump has
also said she is the leader he most admires.
Valentina Pop and Laurence Norman contributed to this
article.
Write to Stephen Fidler at stephen.fidler@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 10, 2016 00:25 ET (05:25 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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