ExxonMobil’s Energy Outlook Projects Energy Demand Increase and Decline in Carbon Intensity
25 Janvier 2016 - 3:00PM
Business Wire
- Global energy demand expected to
increase 25 percent between 2014-2040, driven by population and
economic growth
- Carbon intensity of the global economy
to fall by half due to significant energy efficiency gains and a
gradual transition to less carbon-intensive energy types
Global energy demand will increase 25 percent between 2014 and
2040, driven by population growth and economic expansion,
ExxonMobil said today in the 2016 edition of The Outlook for
Energy. At the same time, energy efficiency gains and increased use
of renewable energy sources and lower carbon fuels, such as natural
gas, are expected to help reduce by half the carbon intensity of
the global economy.
During the period, the world’s population will increase by about
2 billion people and emerging economies will continue to expand
significantly. Most growth in energy demand will occur in
developing nations that are not part of the Organization for
Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Per capita income in
those countries is likely to increase by 135 percent.
Natural gas is expected to meet about 40 percent of the growth
in global energy needs and demand for the fuel will increase by 50
percent. Nuclear and renewable energy sources – including
bio-energy, hydro, geothermal, wind, and solar – are also likely to
account for nearly 40 percent of the growth in global energy demand
by 2040. By then, they are expected to make up nearly 25 percent of
supplies of which nuclear alone represents about one third.
“ExxonMobil’s analysis and those of independent agencies
confirms our long-standing view that all viable energy sources will
be needed to meet increasing demand,” said Rex W. Tillerson,
chairman and chief executive officer of Exxon Mobil Corporation.
“The Outlook for Energy is a useful resource to help understand
future energy supply and demand, which can aid decisions by
individuals, businesses and governments that together will affect
the future of energy.”
The outlook projects that global energy-related carbon dioxide
emissions will peak around 2030 and then start to decline.
Emissions in OECD nations are projected to fall by about 20 percent
from 2014 to 2040.
The Outlook for Energy is ExxonMobil’s long-range forecast
developed by its economists, engineers and scientists through
data-driven analysis. It examines energy supply and demand trends
for approximately 100 countries, 15 demand sectors and 20 different
energy types.
“Our forecast is used as a foundation for the company’s business
strategies and to help guide multi-billion dollar investment
decisions,” said William Colton, vice president of ExxonMobil
Corporate Strategic Planning, which develops The Outlook for
Energy. “For many years the outlook has taken into account policies
established to reduce energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. The
climate accord reached at the recent COP 21 conference in Paris set
many new goals, and while many related policies are still emerging,
the outlook continues to anticipate that such policies will
increase the cost of carbon dioxide emissions over time.”
Key findings of the report include:
- In 2040, oil and natural gas are
expected to make up nearly 60 percent of global supplies, while
nuclear and renewables will be approaching 25 percent. Oil will
provide one third of the world’s energy in 2040, remaining the No.
1 source of fuel, and natural gas will move into second place.
- North America, which for decades had
been an oil importer, is on pace to become a net exporter around
2020.
- India will surpass China as the world’s
most populous nation, with 1.6 billion people. The two countries
are expected to account for almost half of the growth in global
energy demand.
- Global demand for electricity is
expected to increase by 65 percent, and 85 percent of the increase
is in non-OECD nations.
- The share of the world’s electricity
generated by coal is expected to fall to about 30 percent in 2040
from approximately 40 percent in 2014.
- Global energy demand from
transportation is projected to rise by about 30 percent, and
practically all the growth will be in non-OECD countries.
- Sales of new hybrids are expected to
jump from about 2 percent of new-car sales in 2014 to more than 40
percent by 2040, when one in four cars in the world will be a
hybrid. Average fuel economy will rise from 25 to about 45 miles
per gallon.
- Already the world’s largest
oil-importing region, Asia Pacific’s net imports are projected to
rise by more than 50 percent by 2040 as domestic production remains
steady and demand increases.
For more information about The Outlook for Energy, visit
www.exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook.
Cautionary Statement: Statements in The Outlook for Energy and
this release relating to future events or conditions are
forward-looking statements. Actual future global or local
conditions (including economic conditions and growth, population
growth, energy demand growth and mix, energy supply sources,
efficiency gains, the impact of technology, and carbon emissions)
could differ materially due to changes in supply and demand and
market conditions affecting oil, gas, and other energy prices;
changes in law or government regulation and other political events;
changes in technology; the occurrence and duration of economic
recessions; the actions of competitors; the development of new
supply sources; demographic changes; and changes in other
assumptions or factors discussed in The Outlook for Energy and
under the heading “Factors Affecting Future Results” on the
Investors page of our website at www.exxonmobil.com. See also Item
1A of ExxonMobil’s latest Form 10-K.
About ExxonMobil
ExxonMobil, the largest publicly traded international oil and
gas company, uses technology and innovation to help meet the
world’s growing energy needs. ExxonMobil holds an industry leading
inventory of resources, is the largest refiner and marketer of
petroleum products, and its chemical company is one of the largest
in the world. Follow ExxonMobil on Twitter at
www.twitter.com/exxonmobil.
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