Oil Slump Sets Scene For Mergers
29 Janvier 2016 - 9:02AM
Dow Jones News
(FROM THE WALL STREET JOURNAL 1/29/16)
By Bradley Olson and Sarah Kent
Here's how bad things are getting in the oil patch: In some
cases it is now cheaper for energy companies to buy one another
rather than drill for crude.
A year-and-a-half on from the start of the worst crude-oil-price
crash in a generation, the biggest U.S. and European energy
companies have delayed projects and made such deep budget cuts that
they will soon struggle to replace the oil they pump out of the
ground with new reserves. That conundrum could have serious
implications for Exxon Mobil Corp., BP PLC, Chevron Corp. and Royal
Dutch Shell PLC because oil-and-gas reserves are critical to
evaluating their growth prospects.
Exxon and its peers are set to begin reporting fourth-quarter
earnings this week, starting with Chevron on Friday. Analysts
estimate combined profits at the four biggest publicly traded
Western oil companies will be about $22 billion, the weakest
results since 1998,according to S&P Capital IQ. Shell, Chevron,
Exxon and BP declined to comment.
Facing poor returns for drilling and severe challenges to
long-term growth, some big oil companies have little choice but to
turn to deals, said Anish Kapadia, an energy analyst at Tudor
Pickering Holt & Co.
"The obvious conclusion is to go out and buy something," he
said. "The valuations are getting quite attractive."
Past energy downturns drove many of the biggest oil companies to
strike deals, with big companies buying smaller rivals such as
Anadarko Petroleum Corp.'s takeover of Union Pacific Resources in
2000. Equally matched energy conglomerates also lashed themselves
together the last time oil traded around $20 a barrel in the late
1990s, including Exxon's tie-up with Mobil and Chevron's with
Texaco.
"If prices stay this low, we're going to see much more
distressed companies and that will drive M&A," said Luke
Parker, research director at Wood Mackenzie.
Bankers and analysts have been predicting a wave of deals almost
since crude prices began to fall from over $100 a barrel in the
summer of 2014, but they never materialized. Last year was the
slowest year for oil-and-gas transactions in over a decade,
according to Wood Mackenzie.
The only sizable acquisition by a big energy company so far is
Shell's $50 billion purchase of BG Group PLC, which Shell and BG
shareholders approved this week and is expected to close in
February.
Many U.S. oil producers that tap shale formations have fought
for a year to avoid a sale, including Apache Corp. -- which fended
off an overture by Anadarko last fall -- and Whiting Petroleum
Corp., once the biggest producer in North Dakota's Bakken Shale,
which entertained offers last year before turning to Wall Street
for more debt and equity. Just as potential sellers were reluctant
to accept offers they considered too low as they hoped for a
rebound in oil prices, many potential buyers were also put off by
the extreme volatility in oil prices and wondered if any deal
struck would look expensive if crude fell ever further.
Both impediments are gone, now that hopes for a quick rebound
have been dashed.
At current prices, U.S. shale producers are losing more than $2
billion a week, according to consulting firm AlixPartners LLP. That
means as oil's crash grinds on, some shale companies may be forced
to fall into the arms of a willing buyer this year.
Oil-patch deals now look more attractive than they have in
years, said Robin Bertram, the oil-and-gas resource evaluation
leader at Deloitte LLP. That is especially true for some of the
biggest oil companies, which sat on the sidelines during the U.S.
shale boom.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 29, 2016 02:47 ET (07:47 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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