By Carla Mozee
Mexico's equities and currency rose Friday after the central
bank held its key interest rate steady and after the release of
more figures that illustrated improvement in economic conditions in
the U.S., Mexico's biggest trading partner.
Mexico's IPC equity index advanced 1.3% to 28,308.96, its
highest closing level this year 2009. The benchmark also logged its
fourth straight session of gains and rose 1.6% for the week.
Market heavyweight America Movil (AMX) shares finished up 1.1%
and steel producer Industrias CH climbed 1.2% in the wake of a
National Association of Realtors report that U.S. sales of existing
homes in July rose 7.2% to 5.24 million units, the highest level
since August 2007.
Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected sales to rise to
an annual rate of 5 million.
Signs that the housing market in the U.S. is stabilizing lifts
the prospect for economic recovery, which helps Mexico because the
U.S. buys 80% of Mexico's exports.
The housing data helped pull U.S. equities higher to their
highest closes of the year, as well. The S&P 500 Index (SPX)
rose 1.6% to 1,026.13, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI)
jumped 156 points, or 1.7%, to 9,505.96.
The nearly year-long recession in Mexico had prompted Bank of
Mexico officials to cut the key interest rate by 375 basis points
so far this year, including a cut of 25 basis points in July. But
on Friday, policymakers held the rate unchanged at 4.5%, a decision
that had been widely expected.
The bank, in an accompanying statement, said it would extend the
pause in its rate-cutting campaign, a more dovish stance than had
been anticipated, said RBC Capital Markets in note.
"Clearly, if there is any U.S. economic setback in 2010 and
considering Banxico's more dovish tone, risks are tilted to only
very modest tightening in 2010 (or none at all)," wrote currency
strategists at RBC.
Mexico's currency rose 0.4% on Friday to 12.834 pesos per U.S.
dollar from Thursday's level at 12.884 pesos.
On the stock exchange, shares of interest-rate sensitive banks
ended mixed. Banorte climbed 3.1%, Grupo Financiero Inbursa rose
1.3% but microlender Banco Compartamos lost grip of gains to end
down 0.4%.
Mexico's statistics agency on Thursday said gross domestic
product sank 10.3% in the second quarter, with the figures
aggravated by a slowdown in activity related to the H1N1 flu
outbreak and the Easter holiday. The contraction, though sharp, was
better than the 10.6% contraction forecast by economists polled by
Dow Jones Newswires.
Alfredo Coutino, director of Latin American research at Moody's
Economy.com, in a note Friday wrote that the probability of further
rate cuts this year is low.
"Inflation will not be a concern in an economy in deep
recession. The policy stimulus will help the economy to be out of
recession by the end of the year," he said.
The annual inflation rate has been gradually decreasing. In
June, it reached 5.4%, down from 5.2% in May. The central bank's
target rate is 3%. The Bank of Mexico also said Friday that it
expects to see economic recovery starting in the second half of
this year.
RBC, meanwhile, expects the central bank to start raising rates
in the first quarter of 2010 and to push it up to 6% by the end of
that year. Market consensus is for rates to end at 5.5%, the firm
said.
In ETF action, the iShares MSCI Mexico Index Fund (EWW) rose
2.1%. It closed the week with a rise of 2.9%.
Bovespa advances
In addition to positive developments from the U.S. housing
market, investors in Latin American markets received an influential
report that signaled expansion in private sector activity across
the euro-zone.
Also, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said in a
speech Friday that the global economy is starting to emerge from
the crippling financial crisis.
Brazil's Bovespa recorded its best close of the 2009 by rising
1.6% to 57,728.59. It logged a weekly gain of 1.9%. The Bovespa
finished higher for six weeks in a row, the longest streak since a
nine-week run that ended in early May.
Homebuilders were the top gainers of the session, led by an 11%
jump in shares of Rossi Residencial and a 9.9% rise in shares of
Gafisa (GFA).
Shares of oil firm Petrobras (PBR) climbed 2% as crude-oil
futures hit their highest level this year, above $74 a barrel.
Also, Petrobras said late Thursday that it told Brazilian
regulators that it has discovered traces of oil in a well in the
Espirito Santo Basin.
Shares of Vale (RIO) surged 2.3% after Itaú-Securities analyst
Marcos Assumpção advised clients to buy the iron ore giant's
shares "before it is too late."
Itaú raised its 2010 estimate for earnings before interest,
taxes, depreciation and amortization to $15 billion from $12.2
billion to incorporate higher prices for iron ore, higher volumes
and stronger prices for base metals.
"In our view, better earnings outlook together with an
underweight position in the stock is likely to drive a positive
share performance in the short term," wrote Assumpção.
He added that Vale's traded shares have climbed nearly 40% this
year, compared with more than 50% rise in the Bovespa index and an
average jump of 70% in shares of Brazilian steel companies.
"In our view, this underperformance is undeserved, since both
sectors benefit similarly from a global economic recovery," he
said.
Argentina's Merval rose 1.7% to 1,799.92, its top closing level
of 2009. The Merval rose 2% for the week.
But Chile's IPSA closed Friday with a loss of 0.4% at 3,266.30.
It lost 0.9% for the week, its first weekly loss since late
July.