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Dernier Message: 29/Sept/2007 09h35 |
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September 28, 2007
Bonds continue to bounce, but momentum is lacking. The recent move up appears to be more technical in nature than an actual price reversal. Another leg down may be looming if the long bond fails to close above 112’02 by the middle to end of next week. If the market does in fact find a way to close above the stated level, there will likely be another retest of the contract high.
There was plenty of news to trade on today, but the volume still lacked. The August personal income rose .3% along with upward revisions in the previous three months. Spending rose .6% carving a hole in the saving rate. The PCE price index, a measure of inflation, suggested that price pressures have cooled. The number was reported as an increase of .1%, while the Chicago Manufacturing Index rose to 54.2 in the month of September. According to the Federal Reserve, the foreign holdings of treasury and agency debt rose by over seven billion dollars. This was a pleasant number following the recent dip in overseas buying.
Overall, the day’s news was, of course, was bond supportive. However, end of the month/quarter position squaring may have taken the momentum from the bull camp. 112’01 marks significant resistance for the long bond. While it seems as though ultimately Treasuries will be a buy, I can’t help but feel that there will be a continuation of the selling before a bottom can be made.
I still recommend selling puts on a strong move lower, but find that picking a direction from here is difficult.
.../ ... suite & graphe,
http://www.futuresknowledge.com/commentary/Financials/commentary_show.asp?A=160_092807_144708_10.asp&B=Carley&C=Garner&D=Alaron+Futures+%2D+Options&E=160&F=c_garner_new.gif