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31/10/2007 08:53
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AP
Stocks Slide Ahead of Fed Rate Decision
Tuesday October 30, 7:32 pm ET
By Madlen Read, AP Business Writer
Wall Street Falls Ahead of Federal Reserve Rate Decision and After Dip in Consumer Confidence
NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street pulled back Tuesday as investors, uneasy about a drop in consumer confidence, traded cautiously ahead of the Federal Reserve's impending decision on interest rates.
After the Fed's half-point reduction in September, most investors expect the central bank to deliver a quarter-point cut at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday.
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31/10/2007 08:56
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31/10/2007 00:30 AUD Building Approvals m/m 0.9% -1.7%
31/10/2007 01:30 JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y 0.2% 0.6%
31/10/2007 02:00 NZD Business Confidence -26.5
31/10/2007 05:00 JPY Housing Starts y/y -32.0% -43.3%
31/10/2007 06:00 EUR German Retail Sales m/m 0.8% -1.6%
31/10/2007 07:00 GBP Nationwide House Prices m/m 0.2% 0.7%
31/10/2007 09:00 EUR Consumer Confidence -5 -5
31/10/2007 10:00 EUR CPI y/y (p) 2.3% 2.1%
31/10/2007 10:00 EUR Unemployment Rate 6.9% 6.9%
31/10/2007 10:00 EUR Italian CPI m/m 0.1% 0.0%
31/10/2007 10:30 CHF Leading Index m/m 2.10 2.14
31/10/2007 10:30 GBP Consumer Confidence -7 -7
31/10/2007 12:15 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 60K 58K
31/10/2007 12:30 CAD GDP m/m 0.1% 0.2%
31/10/2007 12:30 USD ECI q/q 0.9% 0.9%
31/10/2007 12:30 USD GDP Deflator Annualized q/q (p) 2.0% 2.6%
31/10/2007 12:30 USD GDP Annualized q/q (p) 3.1% 3.8%
31/10/2007 13:45 USD Chicago PMI 53.0 54.2
31/10/2007 14:00 USD Construction Spending m/m -0.4% 0.2%
31/10/2007 14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -5.3M
31/10/2007 18:15 USD Interest Rate Statement 4.50% 4.75%
31/10/2007 19:00 GBP BOE Chief Economist Bean Speaks
31/10/2007 22:30 AUD Manufacturing PMI 50.7
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31/10/2007 12:24
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La clôture de WALL STREET
src : http://commerzbank.zonebourse.com/wm/WarrantMatin225.pdf
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Wall Street avait démontré une bonne capacité de résistance aux mauvaises nouvelles et aux 'profit warnings' liés
aux trimestriels jusqu'à l'entame de la dernière heure (pertes limitées à -0,25% pour le 'S&P', gain de +0,2% pour
le Nasdaq)... mais les indices US ont soudain chuté de -0,2 à -0,3% en quelques minutes sur la rumeur d'un
hypothétique statu quo de la FED ce mercredi.
Un éditorialiste du Wall Street Journal révèlait hier matin que les membres de la Fed restaient partagés entre la
possibilité d'une baisse de 25 points de base des 'fed funds' (alors que le scénario d'un abaissement du 'prime
rate' semblait joué d'avance... à 98%).
'L'auteur de l'article, Greg Ip, a souvent été considéré comme une sorte de 'porte-parole' de la Fed, ce qui fait que
son éditorial a entraîné toute une série de rumeurs selon lesquelles l'autorité centrale chercherait à abaisser les
prévisions du marché', note un stratégiste.
Le Dow Jones Industrial abandonnait au final -0,56% (tout comme Paris ou l'Eurotop-100 quelques heures
auparavant) et le Nasdaq terminait inchangé (-0,03%) à 2.817Pts.
L'indice qui semblait offrir le reflet le plus fidèle de l'actualité du jour, ce fut le 'S&P-500' avec une perte de -0,65%
à 1.531Pts qui apparaissait logique compte tenu du repli de l'indice de confiance des consommateurs américains
(à 95,6 points contre 99,5 mi-octobre).
Il était attendu inchangé autour du seuil des 100... les ménages US affichaient encore un moral d'acier deux mois
après le second coup de semonce de l'été lié au 'subprime', alors que le marché immobilier est en pleine déprime.
Cette séance de mardi a également été émaillée de nombreux 'profit warnings', à commencer par celui de Procter
& Gamble.
Le titre a dévissé de -4% après avoir fait état d'une hausse de 14% de ses résultats au 1er trimestre, mais dévoilé
des projections de 2ème trimestre inférieures à celles du marché, essentiellement en raison de la montée des
coûts des matières premières.
Par les autres avertissements marquants, les opérateurs relevaient ceux de Pitney Bowes (-15%) et surtout de
Qwest (-13%), l'opérateur ayant révélé une chute de ses recettes sur les communications à l'international et une
stagnation de ses revenus sur le territoire US.
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31/10/2007 12:46
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terrible ce sixment(eur) sur bourso !
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5 de 6
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31/10/2007 13:27
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0CC ?
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6 de 6
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Modifié le 31/10/2007 13:55
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AP, http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071031/fed_interest_rates.html
Fed Expected to Cut Rates for 2nd Time
Wednesday October 31, 7:43 am ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
Federal Reserve Expected to Cut Rates for a Second Time in an Effort to Ward Off a Recession
WASHINGTON (AP) -- With oil prices soaring and the housing market sinking, the Federal Reserve is likely to combat the economic turmoil with more interest rate cuts.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues were wrapping up a two-day meeting Wednesday and many economists believe they will announce that they have decided to follow September's half-point cut in the federal funds rate with a quarter-point cut at this meeting.
"They are going to cut rates," predicted Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "The economy is weakening and financial markets remain unsettled."
Many analysts said this rate reduction probably will not be the last either, as the central bank keeps reducing rates to help the economy overcome a host of problems.
The Fed cut the federal funds rate, the interest that banks charge each other, for the first time in four years at its September meeting, reducing it to 4.75 percent. Responding to that move, commercial banks cut their prime lending rate, the benchmark for millions of consumer and business loans, by a half-point as well to 7.75 percent.
The economy's troubles include the worst slump in housing in more than two decades and a credit crunch that roiled financial markets this summer when investors suddenly became concerned about mounting losses from defaults on subprime mortgages.
With lenders tightening mortgage standards, marking it harder for prospective buyers to qualify for loans, and defaults continuing to rise, the slump in housing has deepened.
Financial markets also have a new worry in the latest surge in oil prices. Crude oil prices have hit records above $93 per barrel.
The worry is that the combination of the deep slump in housing, a lingering credit-crunch and rising oil prices will severely dampen consumer spending, the economy's main growth engine, in the months ahead.
"The economy is facing a perfect storm right now of a crisis-related tightening of credit, higher oil prices and lower house prices," said David Jones, chief economist at DMJ Advisors, a Denver forecasting firm. "We are going to see a significant slowing in growth."
Jones forecast that the overall economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, will slow to a rate of 1.5 percent for this quarter and will dip even lower to a rate of 1.3 percent in the first three months of next year.
That sluggish pace would make the economy vulnerable to some type of economic shock that could push GDP growth into the negative territory that signals a recession.
"The consumer is getting squeezed right now between falling home prices and rising oil prices," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's in New York. "They have got to slow down. It is just a question of how much and how fast."
In two worrisome developments, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell for a third consecutive month in October, dropping to the lowest level in two years, while the S&P/Case-Shiller Index of home prices, based on 20 cities around the country, dropped by a record 5 percent in August.
Many analysts believe that GDP growth in the just-completed July-September quarter came in at a solid rate of around 3.1 percent, down only slightly from the 3.8 percent growth rate in the spring.
But the ongoing credit and housing problems and the renewed surge of energy prices are expected to exact a toll in upcoming months with the economy not expected to regain its balance until mid-2008. Many analysts believe that in addition to a rate cut Wednesday, the Fed will cut rates at its final meeting of the year in December and possibly at its January meeting as well.
Lyle Gramley, a former Fed board member and now an economist with Stanford Financial Group, put the chances of a recession at around 40 percent, saying the Fed's primary concern right now is what is happening in housing and how much of a spillover that will have on the overall economy.
"It is possible that the housing industry will take us over the edge into a recession," he said, noting that every housing downturn of the past 60 years with the exception of two have triggered recessions.
Federal Reserve: http://www.federalreserve.gov
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Stocks Slide Ahead of Fed Rate Decision
Tuesday October 30, 7:32 pm ET
By Madlen Read, AP Business Writer
Wall Street Falls Ahead of Federal Reserve Rate Decision and After Dip in Consumer Confidence
NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street pulled back Tuesday as investors, uneasy about a drop in consumer confidence, traded cautiously ahead of the Federal Reserve's impending decision on interest rates.
After the Fed's half-point reduction in September, most investors expect the central bank to deliver a quarter-point cut at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday.
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> http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071030/wall_street.html