Bitcoin Price Forecast: What To Expect In The Final 24 Hours Before US Election
04 Novembre 2024 - 5:41PM
NEWSBTC
As the US presidential election approaches, the Bitcoin price has
found a stable support range between $68,000 and $69,000, just shy
of its all-time high earlier this year. While the
cryptocurrency has struggled to surpass this significant milestone,
investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations
for further price increases tempered by anticipated market
volatility in the upcoming hours. Bitcoin Price Expected To Swing
8% Post-Election The options market indicates the Bitcoin price
could see price swings of approximately 8% in either direction
following the election, a notable increase compared to the typical
2% fluctuations seen on regular trading days. Caroline
Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, a crypto derivatives liquidity
provider, noted that “no significant volatility premium is priced
in after Nov. 7,” suggesting the market anticipates a relatively
swift resolution to the election results. Related Reading:
Solana Expected To Reach $500 By Bull Run’s End, Says Crypto
Analyst The election pits Republican nominee and former President
Donald Trump against Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, with
both candidates eliciting varied responses from the crypto
community. Trump’s favorable stance towards cryptocurrencies
has positioned Bitcoin as part of the so-called “Trump trades,”
especially in light of the regulatory crackdown experienced under
President Joe Biden. As Trump’s odds have fluctuated in
betting markets, the Bitcoin price has mirrored these changes,
briefly nearing record highs before retreating as polls indicate a
tightly contested race. The options market reflects a balanced
sentiment, with an even distribution of bearish and bullish
positions throughout October, indicating that traders are preparing
for upward and downward movements as the election draws near.
Data from the Deribit exchange suggests a potential trading range
of $60,000 to $80,000 for the Bitcoin price in the weeks following
the election, based on peak open interest in options contracts.
Path To $100,000 Remains Viable Crypto analyst Miles Deutscher has
also shared his view on social media, positing that a Trump victory
could lead to an immediate Bitcoin price surge, potentially
establishing a new all-time high this year. Conversely, the
analyst suggests that a win for Harris might result in a price
drop, delaying any new highs until Q1 2025. Regardless of the
election outcome, Deutscher remains confident that Bitcoin will
reach $100,000. Market expert Patric H. adds another layer of
analysis, observing that Bitcoin closed the past week above a daily
downtrend channel, indicating a potential reversal. However,
Patrick notes that the weekly candle shows weakness, prompting
market participants to de-risk before the election. His bullish
thesis hinges on Bitcoin holding above $65,000; a drop below this
level could signal a return to extended price volatility. Related
Reading: Dogecoin (DOGE) Poised for a Move: Will It Start a Fresh
Increase? From a trading perspective, data indicates that perpetual
traders on Binance have withdrawn limit buy orders below $50,000,
suggesting a shift in sentiment. Previously, there was
substantial long interest in the “multi-billion dollar range”
between $42,000 and $50,000, but traders appear to have sidelined
that capital in favor of higher price levels. The next
significant limit buy order is $63,800, with additional smaller
orders scattered down to that level, indicating that Bitcoin may
not fall significantly below this point. On the upside, the next
significant resistance level for the Bitcoin price is $73,000,
where substantial selling interest from Coinbase and Binance is
noted. Patrick anticipates a potential rejection in the $75,000 to
$76,000 range, which could precede a breakout if those levels are
successfully breached. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading
at $68,360, up 0.8% over the past 24 hours. Featured image from
DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
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