Aperam S.A. / Mot-clé(s) : Autres
Aperam update on Q3 2024 market & financial trends
30-Sep-2024 / 06:59 CET/CEST
Aperam update on Q3
2024 market & financial trends
Luxembourg, September
30, 2024 (07:00 CET) - In preparation of
the upcoming quarterly results release scheduled for Friday, 8
November 2024, we would like to remind market participants of the
standing guidance, earnings drivers and events that should be
considered.
The Q3 outlook, as specified in the Q2 presentation, the
management podcast and during the conference call was:
-
Q3 group adjusted. EBITDA slightly
higher than Q2-24 (EUR86m). This was based on stable volumes in a
seasonally softer quarter balanced by the improvement in the Brazil
hot rolling mill, the segment trends stated in the table below and
stable commodity prices resulting in a slightly less positive
inventory valuation qoq.
-
This compares to the Aperam
compiled Q3 adjusted EBITDA consensus at EUR93m (average)
currently. The consensus is updated & published at
https://www.aperam.com/investors/news-contacts/results/
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Recycling &
Renewables
|
Normalised annual EBITDA of EUR80-85m. We projected Q3 with a
slightly lower result qoq (Q2 adj. EBITDA: €20m) as scrap volumes
incur seasonal low in an already low market while BioEnergia is
stable
|
|
Stainless & Electrical
Europe
|
For Q3 we projected a lower adj. EBITDA qoq due to the
seasonal summer slowdown in volumes.
|
|
Stainless & Electrical
Brazil
|
Q3 adj EBITDA is expected at a higher level qoq due to
seasonally slightly higher volumes and the absence of the hot
rolling mill related costs
|
|
Alloys & Specialties
|
We expected a lower adj EBITDA qoq mainly due to seasonal
summer maintenance. The EUR80m
guidance for 2024 remains valid
|
|
Services & Solutions
|
We expected a lower adj
EBITDA qoq in Q3 due to the seasonal summer slowdown in
volumes
|
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Others & Eliminations
|
A high single digit negative EBITDA should normally be
expected.
We expect Q3 to be broadly consistent with this
|
|
Cash Flow & Net Fin.
Debt
|
NWC: For Q3 we projected an increase in net working capital
mainly due to a technicality as purchasing and payables drop in the
summer quarter. Guidance for the year for NWC release is
unchanged
Capex EUR150m for 2024 of which EUR103m were spent during
H1.
Q3 net debt: Higher due to the higher net working
capital.
|
Please note that forward guidance for adjusted EBITDA, cash
flow and net debt is always provided on a stable commodity price
assumption.
|
Commodity prices
& FX
|
|
|
|
JUN 24
|
JUL 24
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AUG 24
|
SEP 24*
|
|
Nickel LME
|
USD/t
|
17,572
|
16,325
|
16,270
|
16,097
|
|
Ferrochrome
|
USD/t
|
3,175
|
3,263
|
3,241
|
3,153
|
|
Stainless Scrap
|
USD/t
|
1,527
|
1,534
|
1,511
|
1,311
|
|
Stainless CR 2mm 304
|
USD/t
|
3,191
|
3,119
|
3,025
|
3,047
|
|
USD/EUR
|
x
|
1.08
|
1.09
|
1.10
|
1.11
|
|
USD/BRL
Source: Bloomberg,
Fastmarkets *up to 29. September
|
x
|
5.40
|
5.54
|
5.55
|
5.54
|
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Other
items
|
|
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Volume seasonality
|
In a normal market, Q3 is the weakest quarter, but the
performance improvement in the refurbished Brazil hot rolling mill
will compensate the seasonal effect
|
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Leadership Journey Phase
5
|
On track to realise the target gains of EUR75m in
2024.
|
|
Commodity prices & inventory
valuation
|
We projected a positive but slightly lower inventory
valuation effect qoq for Q3. While some raw material prices have
softened since then we do not expect this to impact the adj. EBITDA
guidance
|
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Distributor Inventor:
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A small increase has been recorded from the all time low but
tonnage remains significantly below normal
|
|
Current trading
|
The pre-summer price volume improvement has been maintained
during the vacation period without significant changes in either
direction. Assuming stable raw material price this points to an
unusual seasonality with a higher H2 adj. EBITDA versus H1. It
needs to be seen if the recent deterioration of the manufacturing
PMI will have any effect in Q4.
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Forward Looking
Statements
This document may contain forward-looking information and
statements about Aperam SA and its subsidiaries. These statements
include financial projections and estimates and their underlying
assumptions, statements regarding plans, objectives and
expectations with respect to future operations, products and
services, and statements regarding future performance.
Forward-looking statements may be identified by the words
‘’believe’’, ‘’expect’’, ‘’anticipate’’, ‘’target’’ or similar
expressions. Although Aperam’s management believes that the
expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are
reasonable, investors and holders of Aperam’s securities are
cautioned that forward-looking information and statements are
subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, many of which are
difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of Aperam,
that could cause actual results and developments to differ
materially and adversely from those expressed in, or implied or
projected by, the forward-looking information and statements. These
risks and uncertainties include those discussed or identified in
Aperam’s filings with the Luxembourg Stock Market Authority for the
Financial Markets (Commission de Surveillance du Secteur
Financier). The information is valid only at the time of release
and Aperam does not assume any obligation to update or revise its
forward-looking statements on the basis of new information, future
events, subject to applicable regulation.
Contact
Company Secretary / Delphine Féraud
Valendru: aperam.corporate@aperam.com
Investor Relations / Thorsten
Zimmermann:
IR@aperam.com
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