Aperam S.A. / Mot-clé(s) : Autres
Aperam update on Q4 2024 market & financial trends
07-Jan-2025 / 06:59 CET/CEST
Aperam update on Q4
2024 market & financial trends
Luxembourg, January
7, 2025 (07:00 CET) - In preparation of
the upcoming quarterly results release scheduled for Friday, 7
February 2025, we would like to remind market participants of the
standing guidance, earnings drivers and events that should be
considered.
The Q4 outlook, as specified in the Q3 presentation, the
management podcast and during the conference call was:
-
Q4 group adjusted. EBITDA higher
than in Q3-24 (EUR99m). The seasonal headwind in the summer quarter
should turn into tailwind in Q4 which is seasonally stronger in
Europe. Normally the Brazil seasonality works against this but it
should be a rather mild one this year. In sum, Aperam expects
higher steel shipments in Q4 compared to Q3.
-
Scale effect together with a
positive product mix and some positive valuation gains should
balance lower realized prices.
-
This compares to the Aperam
compiled Q4 adjusted EBITDA consensus at EUR109m (average)
currently. The consensus is updated & published at:
https://www.aperam.com/investors/news-contacts/results
|
Recycling &
Renewables
|
|
Normalized annual EBITDA of EUR80-85m for the Recycling &
Renewables segment. After reaching EUR54m in 9M-24 we expect Q4 to
at least plug the year-to-date gap.
|
|
Stainless & Electrical
Europe
|
|
For Q4 we expect higher volumes and a better mix to be
balanced by pricing pressure and some valuation headwind for a
comparable result.
|
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Stainless & Electrical
Brazil
|
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Q4 adjusted EBITDA is expected at a comparable level qoq due
to a mild seasonal downturn only
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Alloys & Specialties
|
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Higher adjusted EBITDA qoq is following the seasonal trough
in Q3 . Demand in key markets remains high and the seasonal uptick
in Q4 should close the gap to the EUR80m guidance (9M:
EUR56m).
|
|
Services & Solutions
|
|
Intensifying pricing pressure limits the recovery potential
into Q4 for this spot market driven segment especially as inventory
valuation should remain a drag in the earnings bridge.
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Others & Eliminations
|
|
Elimination should turn slightly positive due to inventory
reduction. The high level of integration between different Aperam
businesses like recycling, charcoal, stainless mills and
distribution allows to manage inventory just-in-time between
segments which is then reflected in eliminations.
|
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Cash Flow & Net Fin.
Debt
|
|
NWC: Lower net working capital in Q4 will result in a higher
free cash flow
Capex: EUR150m for 2024 of which 83% has already been spent
in 9M
Net debt reduction to a level of about 550 million euros is
expected at year end of 2024
|
Please note that forward guidance for adjusted EBITDA, cash
flow and net debt is always provided on a stable commodity price
assumption.
|
Commodity prices
& FX
|
|
|
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SEP 24
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OCT 24
|
NOV 24
|
DEC 24
|
|
Nickel LME
|
USD/t
|
16,136
|
16,821
|
15,720
|
15,434
|
|
Ferrochrome
|
USD/t
|
3,153
|
3,153
|
3,042
|
2,954
|
|
Stainless Scrap
|
USD/t
|
1,309
|
1,265
|
1,265
|
1,181
|
|
Stainless CR 2mm 304
|
USD/t
|
3,047
|
2,950
|
2,843
|
2,720
|
|
USD/EUR
|
x
|
1.11
|
1.09
|
1.06
|
1.05
|
|
USD/BRL
Source: Bloomberg,
Fastmarkets
|
x
|
5.54
|
5.62
|
5.81
|
6.10
|
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Other
items
|
|
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Volume seasonality
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In a normal market, Q4 in Europe is seasonally stronger than
Q3 which forms the seasonal trough. In Brazil Q3 forms the seasonal
peak followed by a seasonally softer Q4.
|
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Leadership Journey Phase
5
|
On track to realise the target gains of EUR75m in
2024.
|
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Commodity prices & valuation
effect
|
Market prices might weigh on units with a high spot market
exposure like eg Services & Solutions. For the group we
continue to expect a net positive valuation effect which supports
the adjusted EBITDA indication given for Q4.
|
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Distributor Inventory:
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The inventory cycle was largely neutral. In absolute tonnage
inventory remained below the average of the past 5
years.
|
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Current trading &
outlook
|
Volumes in Europe remain at a depressed level and pricing
pressure has intensified in December. This will be a factor to
consider for Q1, together with the peak seasonal trough in Brazil
and a valuation headwind versus Q4.
|
|
Universal Stainless
|
The process to acquire Universal Stainless is running
according to expectations. The special AGM has been scheduled on 15
January 2025 where the shareholders of Universal Stainless are
asked to vote on the proposed merger.
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Forward Looking
Statements
This document may contain forward-looking information and
statements about Aperam SA and its subsidiaries. These statements
include financial projections and estimates and their underlying
assumptions, statements regarding plans, objectives and
expectations with respect to future operations, products and
services, and statements regarding future performance.
Forward-looking statements may be identified by the words
‘’believe’’, ‘’expect’’, ‘’anticipate’’, ‘’target’’ or similar
expressions. Although Aperam’s management believes that the
expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are
reasonable, investors and holders of Aperam’s securities are
cautioned that forward-looking information and statements are
subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, many of which are
difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of Aperam,
that could cause actual results and developments to differ
materially and adversely from those expressed in, or implied or
projected by, the forward-looking information and statements. These
risks and uncertainties include those discussed or identified in
Aperam’s filings with the Luxembourg Stock Market Authority for the
Financial Markets (Commission de Surveillance du Secteur
Financier). The information is valid only at the time of release
and Aperam does not assume any obligation to update or revise its
forward-looking statements on the basis of new information, future
events, subject to applicable regulation.
Contact
Investor Relations / Thorsten
Zimmermann: IR@aperam.com
Communication / Ana Escobedo
Conover: Ana.Escobedo@aperam.com
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