OPUSD Optimism

In a video titled “The Macro Outlook for 2025: BIG Moves Ahead,” Julien Bittel, Head of Macro Research at Global Macro Investor (GMI) laid out a sweeping perspective on where growth and inflation trends appear to be heading, why the upcoming cycle looks more akin to 2017 than 2021, and how Bitcoin could be primed for notable upside if its historical relationship with the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Index and global liquidity holds true. Forcast: Bitcoin Macro Summer Is Coming Bittel explained that macro “summer” is the dominant regime he sees unfolding throughout 2025, meaning growth momentum is picking up while inflation remains modest enough for central banks to avoid overtightening. He underscored that “the business cycle still chugs along,” pointing to improving global manufacturing data and to the fact that more countries have been shifting into expansion territory. Although slight fluctuations persist in some indicators, including pockets that briefly resemble a slowdown, Bittel remains confident that these do not mark the onset of a new macro “fall” with sustained growth deceleration and rising inflation. He instead suggests these headwinds will prove short-lived, given an overall environment in which global financial conditions are loosening. Related Reading: Bitcoin Taker Buy/Sell Ratio Spikes On Major Exchanges — Time To Buy? He highlighted the decline in US bond yields and the recent weakening of the dollar as factors that will allow “more cowbell” from central banks. China’s bond yields have also collapsed, which Bittel sees as a major signal that Beijing can provide additional liquidity injections without fearing excessive overheating. He described this combination as an echo of 2017, a year when a softer dollar and lower interest rates contributed to an upswing in both traditional markets and cryptocurrencies. Turning to inflation, Bittel dissected why shelter and other service-related costs are such significant laggards. He observed that more than one-third of headline CPI is tied to housing, which “typically lags home prices by around 17 months,” and pointed out that shelter inflation is still keeping official CPI numbers elevated. He expects this dynamic to give central banks leeway to ease monetary policy further once they see the data turning down. While some cyclical forces, such as commodity prices, might push inflation higher later in the year, Bittel emphasizes that the peak is not imminent and that the Federal Reserve will likely retain enough flexibility to avoid stifling the ongoing economic rebound. Related Reading: US Bitcoin Reserve Will Lead To ‘Pain In Under 2 Years,’ Warns Arthur Hayes In discussing Bitcoin, Bittel zeroed in on the business cycle’s role in driving outsized price movements. He recalled that when the ISM Index barely hovered above 50 in 2013 and 2017, the leading cryptocurrency proceeded to rally by dozens of multiples. In 2021, the macro picture abruptly topped out as soon as ISM and liquidity peaked, cutting short the cycle and capping Bitcoin’s run at roughly an 8x move from its initial pivot out of recession. Today’s backdrop looks materially different. Bittel noted that “the ISM is just now moving above 50,” which contrasts with the late 2020–early 2021 surge that raced from the low 40s to the mid-60s almost in one breath. He added that “if we’re right about the weaker dollar and a pickup in global liquidity,” Bitcoin’s path could more closely resemble the elongated upturn of 2017 than the compressed momentum of 2021. Although Bittel did not offer a precise price target for Bitcoin, he referenced the historical precedent of a 23x jump in 2017 once the cycle gained traction. His caution was clear—he stated repeatedly that these moves are never guaranteed and that “I’m not telling you Bitcoin is going 23x,” but he also stressed that in every prior crypto run, persistent strength in the business cycle proved to be “the magic gift that keeps on giving.” He believes the foundation has been set for an extended upswing, yet reminded everyone that 20–30% drawdowns are inevitable even during powerful rallies. He further noted that “once you understand where the economy is going, you understand where assets are going,” and reiterated that liquidity, particularly from China, could become an even bigger driver for digital assets as 2025 progresses. Bittel reinforced the point, saying that “historically, the biggest surges in Bitcoin happened when the ISM is rising and we’re in macro summer.” He also highlighted that any short-term pullbacks in Bitcoin should not be mistaken for macro regime shifts. The cyclical conditions, fueled by easier financial conditions, remain in place, though he reminded viewers to expect corrections and remain patient. In his words, “it’s never a straight line,” and it can feel like “the end of the world” in some weeks. Yet, given the parallels to 2017 and the ongoing slide in the dollar, he believes the runway for Bitcoin—and other risk assets—still appears relatively long. While Bittel’s presentation also addressed broader market segments, such as commodities and cyclical equities, Bitcoin received special focus. In explaining why GMI’s macro framework still signals optimism, Bittel emphasized that “dips are for buying,” provided that investors keep a close eye on signs of any deeper structural slowdown. He stressed that “no one should forget that if you sign up for Bitcoin, you’re signing up for volatility,” but with the business cycle only just beginning its ascent and liquidity conditions gaining traction, there may be ample room for Bitcoin to move beyond its previous peaks if the data continue to favor cyclical expansion. At press time, BTC traded at $97,710. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com