Commodity Currencies Fall Amid Risk Aversion

The commodity currencies such as Australia, the New Zealand and the Canadian dollars weakened against other major currencies in the Asian session on Monday amid risk aversion, as U.S. data showing much stronger than expected job growth in January and an improvement in consumer sentiment further dimmed the possibility of an interest rate cut in March. Mining and energy stocks were down amid weaker commodity prices.

Traders also remain cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy decision on Tuesday, where the RBA is widely expected to hold interest rates steady.

In economic news, the services sector in Australia continued to contract in January, albeit at a slower pace, the latest survey from Judo Bank showed on Monday with a services PMI score of 49.1. That's up from 47.1 in December, although it remains beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Meanwhile, Australia posted a merchandise trade surplus of A$10.959 billion in December, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Monday. That beat forecasts for a surplus of A$10.510 billion following the upwardly revised A$11.764 billion surplus in November.

Exports were up A$847 million or 1.8 percent on month to A$47.125 billion after rising 1.7 percent in the previous month. Imports climbed A$1.652 billion or 4.8 percent on month to A$36,165 billion a month earlier.

Crude oil prices fell as hopes of an early rate cut by the Federal Reserve faded after data showed a bigger than expected increase in U.S. non-farm payroll employment in January. The dollar's sharp uptick after the jobs data also weighed on oil prices. West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for March ended down $1.54 or about 2.1 percent at $72.28 a barrel. The contract shed more than 7 percent in the week.

In the Asian trading today, the Australian dollar fell to nearly a 3-month low of 0.6486 against the U.S. dollar, from Friday's closing value of 0.6512. On the downside, 0.63 is seen as the next support level for the aussie.

Against the euro and the Canadian dollar, the aussie slipped to 4-day lows of 1.6602 and 0.8748 from last week's closing quotes of 1.6553 and 0.8765, respectively. If the aussie extends its downtrend, it is likely to find support around 1.67 against the euro and 0.86 against the loonie.

The aussie edged down to 96.42 against the yen and 1.0713 against the NZ dollar, from Friday's closing quotes of 96.62 and 1.0733, respectively. The next possible downside target for the aussie is seen around 93.00 against the yen and 1.06 against the kiwi.

The NZ dollar slid to nearly a 2-1/2-month low of 0.6048 against the U.S. dollar and a 1-week low of 1.7810 against the euro, from last week's closing quotes of 0.6063 and 1.7775, respectively. The kiwi may test support near 0.59 against the greenback and 1.81 against the euro.

The kiwi edged down to 89.86 against the yen, from Friday's closing value of 89.96. On the downside, 88.00 is seen as the next support level for the kiwi.

The Canadian dollar slipped to nearly a 2-week low of 1.3490 against the U.S. dollar, from Friday's closing value of 1.3460. The loonie may test support near the 1.3460 region.

Against the yen and the euro, the loonie edged down to 110.06 and 1.4529 from last week's closing quotes of 110.20 and 1.4515, respectively. The loonie is likely to find support near 107.00 against the yen and 1.48 against the euro.

Meanwhile, the safe-haven currency, or the U.S. dollar rose against its major rivals amid risk aversion.

The U.S. dollar rose to nearly a 2-month high of 1.0768 against the euro, nearly a 3-week high of 1.2599 against the pound and nearly a 2-week high of 0.8688 against the Swiss franc, from Friday's closing quotes of 1.0784, 1.2630 and 0.8664, respectively.

Against the yen, the greenback advanced to more than a 2-month high of 148.82 from last week's closing value of 148.37. The next possible upside target for the greenback is seen around the 151.00 region.

Looking ahead, PMI reports from various European economies and U.K. for January and Eurozone PPI for December are due to be released in the European session.

In the New York session, U.S. and Canada PMI reports for January are slated for release.

Euro vs NZD (FX:EURNZD)
Graphique Historique de la Devise
De Mar 2024 à Avr 2024