National House Price Growth Sinks to Slowest
Pace Since Summer 2023
—Much like the groundhog seeing its shadow,
we expect the housing winter to persist in the face of elevated
mortgage rates, says Chief Economist Mark Fleming—
First American Data & Analytics, a leading national
provider of property-centric information, risk management and
valuation solutions and a division of First American Financial
Corporation (NYSE: FAF), today released its January 2025 Home
Price Index (HPI) report. The report tracks home price changes
less than four weeks behind real time at the national, state and
metropolitan (Core-Based Statistical Area) levels and includes
metropolitan price tiers that segment sale transactions into
starter, mid and luxury tiers. The full report can be found
here.
January1 Home Price
Index
Los Angeles-Long Beach Glendale
Market
Metric
Change in HPI
December 2024-January 2025 (month over
month)
-1.3 percent
January 2024-January 2025 (year over
year)
-1.9 percent
National HPI
Metric
Change in HPI
December 2024-January 2025 (month over
month)
+0.1 percent
January 2024-January 2025 (year over
year)
+3.3 percent
Chief Economist National HPI Analysis:
“National house price growth slipped to the slowest pace since
June 2023 amid elevated mortgage rates and rising inventories,”
said Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American. “Elevated
mortgage rates reduce house-buying power for potential buyers,
holding back demand. At the same time, inventory levels are
increasing as some potential sellers list their homes for sale
after coming to terms with ‘higher-for-longer’ rates and more
new-home completions hit the market, further dampening price
growth. Much like the groundhog seeing its shadow, we expect this
‘housing winter’ to persist if mortgage rates remain high while
inventories keep climbing.”
Year-Over-Year Price-Tier Data for the Los Angeles-Long
Beach-Glendale Metro Area: January 2024 to January 2025
The First American Data & Analytics HPI segments home price
changes at the metropolitan level into three price tiers based on
local market sales data: starter tier, which represents home sales
prices at the bottom third of the market price distribution;
mid-tier, which represents home sales prices in the middle third of
the market price distribution; and the luxury tier, which
represents home sales prices in the top third of the market price
distribution.
CBSA
Starter
Mid-Tier
Luxury
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale
-1.5%
+0.8%
-1.1%
“The luxury price tier stands out as a relative outperformer
when measuring annual house price growth by tier and market. Prices
in the luxury tier grew in 25 of the 28 markets we tracked this
month, outpacing price growth in the mid- and starter tier
segments,” said Fleming. “Luxury home buyers, less affected by the
lock-in effect due to their ability to pay in cash, are playing a
different game. In December’s existing-home sales report, the boom
in sales was most distinct at the upper end of the market as sales
of homes priced at more than $1 million jumped 35 percent
nationally, followed closely by homes in the $750,000-$1 million
range, which spiked 33 percent. Existing homeowners are playing
‘housing musical chairs’ by selling to each other, a dynamic that
is keeping luxury price growth strong in many markets.”
January 2025 First American
Data & Analytics Price Tier HPI Highlights2
Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs)
Ranked by Greatest Year-Over-Year Increases in Luxury Tier
HPI
CBSA
Change in Starter Tier
HPI
Change in Mid-Tier HPI
Change in Luxury Tier
HPI
Cambridge, Mass.
+2.5 percent
+9.1 percent
+6.4 percent
Las Vegas
+1.2 percent
+4.7 percent
+6.3 percent
Washington
+1.1 percent
+3.9 percent
+5.7 percent
Atlanta
+1.2 percent
+2.0 percent
+4.8 percent
St. Louis
+5.6 percent
+3.9 percent
+4.8 percent
Additional January 2025 First
American Data & Analytics HPI Highlights
Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs)
with Greatest Year-Over-Year Increases in HPI
CBSA
Change in HPI
St. Louis
+4.6 percent
Cambridge, Mass.
+4.6 percent
Anaheim, Calif.
+4.4 percent
Minneapolis
+4.3 percent
Las Vegas
+4.3 percent
Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs)
with a Year-Over-Year Decease in HPI
Oakland, Calif.
-3.8 percent
Tampa, Fla.
-3.8 percent
Los Angeles
-1.9 percent
San Diego
-0.9 percent
Orlando, Fla.
-0.6 percent
HPI data for all 50 states and the largest 30 CBSAs by
population is available here.
Visit the First American Economic Center for more research on
housing market dynamics.
Next Release
The next release of the First American Data & Analytics
House Price Index will take place the week of March 17, 2025.
First American Data & Analytics HPI Methodology
The First American Data & Analytics HPI report measures
single-family home prices, including distressed sales, with indices
updated monthly beginning in 1980 through the month of the current
report. HPI data is provided at the national, state and CBSA levels
and includes preliminary index estimates for the month prior to the
report (i.e., the preliminary result of July transactions is
reported in August). The most recent index results are subject to
revision as data from more transactions become available.
The HPI uses a repeat-sales methodology, which measures price
changes for the same property over time using more than 46 million
paired transactions to generate the indices. In non-disclosure
states, the HPI utilizes a combination of public sales records, MLS
sold and active listings, and appraisal data to estimate house
prices. This comprehensive approach is particularly effective in
areas where there is limited availability of accurate sale prices,
such as non-disclosure states. Property type, price and location
data are used to create more refined market segment indices. Real
Estate-Owned transactions are not included.
Disclaimer
Opinions, estimates, forecasts and other views contained in this
page are those of First American’s Chief Economist, do not
necessarily represent the views of First American or its
management, should not be construed as indicating First American’s
business prospects or expected results, and are subject to change
without notice. Although the First American Economics team attempts
to provide reliable, useful information, it does not guarantee that
the information is accurate, current or suitable for any particular
purpose. © 2025 by First American. Information from this page may
be used with proper attribution.
About First American Data & Analytics
First American Data & Analytics, a division of First
American Financial Corporation, is a national provider of
property-centric information, risk management and valuation
solutions. First American maintains and curates the industry’s
largest property and ownership dataset that includes more than 8.6
billion document images. Its major platforms and products include:
DataTree®, FraudGuard®, RegsData®, First American TaxSource™ and
ACI®. Find out more about how First American Data & Analytics
powers the real estate, mortgage and title settlement services
industries with advanced decisioning solutions at
www.FirstAmDNA.com.
About First American
First American Financial Corporation (NYSE: FAF) is a
premier provider of title, settlement and risk solutions for real
estate transactions. With its combination of financial strength and
stability built over more than 135 years, innovative proprietary
technologies, and unmatched data assets, the company is leading the
digital transformation of its industry. First American also
provides data products to the title industry and other third
parties; valuation products and services; mortgage subservicing;
home warranty products; banking, trust and wealth management
services; and other related products and services. With total
revenue of $6.1 billion in 2024, the company offers its products
and services directly and through its agents throughout the United
States and abroad. In 2024, First American was named one of the 100
Best Companies to Work For by Great Place to Work® and Fortune
Magazine for the ninth consecutive year, and named one of the 100
Best Workplaces for Innovators by Fast Company for the second
consecutive year. More information about the company can be found
at www.firstam.com.
1 The most recent index results are subject to revision as data
from more transactions become available.
2 Note: Nassau-County-Suffolk County, NY and Pittsburgh are
excluded from this month’s report due to data disruptions.
View source
version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250218680882/en/
Media Contact: Marcus Ginnaty Corporate Communications
First American Financial Corporation (714) 250-3298
Investor Contact: Craig Barberio Investor Relations First
American Financial Corporation (714) 250-5214
First American (NYSE:FAF)
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