Aperam : actualisation sur les tendances du marché et des finances pour le deuxième trimestre 2024
01 Juillet 2024 - 6:59AM
EQS Non-Regulatory
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Aperam S.A. / Mot-clé(s) : Autres
Aperam : actualisation sur les tendances du marché et des finances
pour le deuxième trimestre 2024
01-Juil-2024 / 06:59 CET/CEST
Aperam update on Q2
2024 market & financial trends
Luxembourg, July 1,
2024 (07:00 CET) - In preparation of
the quarterly results release scheduled for 1 August 2024, we would
like to remind market participants of the standing guidance,
earnings drivers and events that should be considered.
The Q2 outlook, as specified in the Q1 presentation, the
management podcast and during the conference call was:
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Q2 group adj. EBITDA higher than
Q1-24 (EUR55m) but below Bloomberg consensus at the time of the
earnings release on 3 May 2024. This was based on slightly higher
volumes, the segment trends stated in the table below and stable
commodity prices resulting in a neutral inventory
valuation.
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This compares to the Aperam
compiled Q2 adj. EBITDA consensus at EUR73m currently. The
consensus is updated & published at
https://www.aperam.com/investors/news-contacts/results/
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Recycling &
Renewables:
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Normalised annual EBITDA of EUR80-85m. We projected Q2 to be
a normal quarter for the segment.
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Stainless & Electrical
Europe
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For Q2 we projected the segment to benefit from a neutral
inventory valuation and a seasonal volume improvement in Europe.
This will be partly offset by a price / cost squeeze in
Europe.
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Stainless & Electrical
Brazil
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The delayed ramp-up of the hot rolling mill was followed by
operational instability. This will fully impact Q2 with
~EUR10m.
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Alloys & Specialties:
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For Q2 we expected a somewhat lower EBITDA in line with Q4-23
after completion of a one off project.
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Services & Solutions:
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Assuming no further distortion from raw material prices, we
expected a comparable EBITDA in Q2 and the year should demonstrate
a clear step towards the 2025 improvement target.
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Others & Eliminations
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Q1 was consistent with the normal high single digit negative
EBITDA that should be expected. For Q2, it could be a negative low
double digit number.
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Cash Flow & Net Fin.
Debt:
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NWC: EUR120m release till YE-24 with some release in
Q2.
Capex EUR150m for 2024, Q2 capex lower than Q1 (EUR81m) and
within the EUR150m capex guidance for 2024.
Q2 net debt: Lower due to the release of net working
capital.
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Please note that forward guidance for adj. EBITDA, cash flow
and net debt is always provided on a stable commodity price
assumption.
Commodity prices
& FX:
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MAR 24
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APR 24
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MAY 24
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JUN 24
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Nickel LME
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USD/t
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17,409
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18,204
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19,605
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17,602
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Ferrochrome
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USD/t
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3,483
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3,218
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3,174
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3,163
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Stainless Scrap
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USD/t
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1,478
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1,463
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1,552
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1,538
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Stainless CR 2mm 304
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USD/t
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2,889
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2,944
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3,040
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3,191
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USD/EUR
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x
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1.09
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1.07
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1.08
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1.08
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USD/BRL
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x
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4.98
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5.13
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5.14
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5.38
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Source: Bloomberg, Fastmarkets
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Other
items:
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Seasonality:
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In a normal market, Q2 is the seasonal peak in Europe while
Q3 marks the peak quarter in Brazil.
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Leadership Journey Phase
5:
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On track to realise the target gains of EUR75m in
2024.
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Commodity prices & inventory
valuation:
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At face value, the commodity price development would indicate
a positive high single digit / very low double digit inventory
valuation. It should remain consistent with the EBITDA ceiling
guided for Q2.
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Brazil hot rolling mill:
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The mill is operating normally and no further impact is
expected post Q2.
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Distributor Inventory:
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Marked a new post GFC all time low.
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Current trading:
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A positive price / volume correlation can be observed more
recently. However, it remains open if this is the start of a
sustained recovery or short lived pre-buying ahead of the summer
holiday season
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Restructuring:
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Negotiations with our workforce are ongoing.
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Forward Looking
Statements
This document may contain forward-looking information and
statements about Aperam SA and its subsidiaries. These statements
include financial projections and estimates and their underlying
assumptions, statements regarding plans, objectives and
expectations with respect to future operations, products and
services, and statements regarding future performance.
Forward-looking statements may be identified by the words
‘’believe’’, ‘’expect’’, ‘’anticipate’’, ‘’target’’ or similar
expressions. Although Aperam’s management believes that the
expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are
reasonable, investors and holders of Aperam’s securities are
cautioned that forward-looking information and statements are
subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, many of which are
difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of Aperam,
that could cause actual results and developments to differ
materially and adversely from those expressed in, or implied or
projected by, the forward-looking information and statements. These
risks and uncertainties include those discussed or identified in
Aperam’s filings with the Luxembourg Stock Market Authority for the
Financial Markets (Commission de Surveillance du Secteur
Financier). The information is valid only at the time of release
and Aperam does not assume any obligation to update or revise its
forward-looking statements on the basis of new information, future
events, subject to applicable regulation.
Contact
Company Secretary / Delphine Féraud
Valendru: aperam.corporate@aperam.com
Investor Relations / Thorsten
Zimmermann: +352 27 36 27 304;
thorsten.zimmermann@aperam.com
Diffusion d’une information Réseau Financier transmis par EQS
Group.
Le contenu relève de la responsabilité de l’émetteur.
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1936231 01-Juil-2024 CET/CEST
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