Bitcoin Has Been In A Class Of Its Own For The Last 10 Years, Top Expert Says
08 Décembre 2023 - 7:00PM
NEWSBTC
Bitcoin has encountered a critical resistance level going into the
weekend and could move sideways following a massive rally.
According to an expert, the cryptocurrency has been breaching every
major obstacle, making it one of the best-performing assets.
Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Dips To $43,200: Buy Or Sell Now?
Analyst Predicts Trend As of this writing, Bitcoin (BTC) trades at
$43,600 with sideways movement in the last 24 hours. Over the
previous seven days, BTC recorded a 14% increase, with Ethereum
following its footsteps, recording a 13% rally. Bitcoin vs. Gold:
The Digital Currency’s Journey to $40,000 Jurrien Timmer, Director
of Macro for Fidelity, offers insightful analysis of Bitcoin’s
trajectory, likening it to “exponential gold.” His thesis suggests
that Bitcoin, much like its elder counterpart, gold, holds value in
times of structural inflation, yet it boasts an added venture
twist. In that sense, Timmer believes both assets are prime to
capture attention from investors looking to protect themselves from
“reckless monetary inflation.” As seen in the chart below, if
Bitcoin follows a similar trajectory to the previous, its price
could target $100,000 and $1,000,000 by early 2025. 2020 was
pivotal for Bitcoin and gold, with fiscal and monetary stimulus
bolstering their appeal. However, Bitcoin differentiates itself
with its capped supply of 21 million coins, contrasting gold’s
continual but modest annual supply growth. This limited supply has
propelled Bitcoin’s “stock-to-flow” (S2F) ratio significantly
higher than gold’s. Moreover, Bitcoin’s journey reflects the
classic S-curve path of technological innovations. Its exponential
growth trajectory mirrors historical trends in technology from
railroads to cell phones. However, predicting Bitcoin’s future
based on these S-curves is complex, as slight deviations in these
growth phases can “dramatically” alter outcomes, the expert claims.
SEC Deliberations And Institutional Interest Shape Bitcoin’s Future
Timmer’s observations include a potential impact of the SEC’s
anticipated decisions on the Bitcoin spot Exchange Traded Fund
(ETF). He theorizes that pending product applications could attract
new investors, yet he remains cautious about whether this will
trigger a “sell-the-news” event and a large drawdown.
Interestingly, a small percentage of Bitcoin is held for under
three months, suggesting that the recent price surge is not merely
“speculative,” offering support for a longer bullish trend. The
true believers in Bitcoin, as indicated by the growing percentage
held for over five or ten years, are unlikely to be swayed by
short-term news. However, there is notable activity in the Bitcoin
futures market, particularly among asset managers, which could
suggest anticipation of the SEC movement. Any updates from the SEC
would arrive in a transformed macroeconomic environment. Unlike the
liquidity-rich period of 2020-21, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed)
recent policy shifts have reversed the surge in monetary inflation.
This shift aligns the current situation more with the post-World
War II era than the inflationary 1970s, impacting the urgency of
the value proposition for gold and Bitcoin. Related Reading:
Bitcoin Price Remains Strong and Eyes Fresh Surge Above $44K As BTC
matures, its relationship with traditional financial markets and
global economic trends becomes increasingly intricate. With the
SEC’s decision and a shift in the macro-arena, the coming months
are poised to exercise influence over the premier cryptocurrency
and the nascent sector. Cover image from Unsplash, chart from
Tradingview
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