TIDMPTAL
RNS Number : 3709A
PetroTal Corp.
22 January 2024
PetroTal Announces 2024 Budget and Other Corporate Updates
2024 production / sales expected to average 17,000 bopd, 20%
year on year increase
Forecast funds flow and free funds flow of $160 million and $25
million, respectively
Targeting a 12% return from dividends and buybacks prior to
liquidity sweeps
Initial 7 day production rate for well 16H of 7,500 bopd
Calgary, AB and Houston, TX - January 22, 2024-PetroTal Corp.
("PetroTal" or the "Company") (TSX: TAL, AIM: PTAL and OTCQX:
PTALF) announces its fully funded 2024 budget. All amounts are in
US dollars unless otherwise stated.
Key 2024 Budget and drilling highlights
-- Average 2024 production and sales target of 17,000 barrels of
oil per day ("bopd"), expected to grow 20% year on year. The
production forecast assumes a dry season as severe as in 2023 with
a quarterly profile of (Q1 18,500 bopd, Q2 19,000 bopd, Q3 13,000
bopd, Q4 17,500 bopd);
-- Investing $107 million at the Bretana oilfield, including
three new oil wells, alongside infrastructure growth in line with
the field's development plan with flexibility for reduction at
lower Brent levels;
-- 2024 funds flow forecast to reach $160 million and free funds
flow (after capex but prior to net working capital cash
adjustments) of $25 million using the December 14, 2023 Brent oil
strip ($77/bbl flat in 2024) with an estimated incremental $10
million of free funds flow for every $3/bbl change in Brent oil
price;
-- Initiating a two year seismic program south of our producing
Bretana oilfield in Block 95, aiming to validate our technical
interpretation of oil migration towards the southern structural
leads;
-- Maintaining a return of capital program consisting of
quarterly dividends at US$0.015/share and share buybacks of
approximately $1.0 million/month in accordance with the Company's
return of capital policy;
-- Commercializing two new Bretana oil sales routes, via
Yurimaguas to the port of Bayovar and also through the OCP in
Ecuador; each expected to deliver 2,000 bopd commencing around July
and October 2024, respectively; and,
-- Well 16H is on stream and has averaged around 7,500 bopd in
the first week, estimated to payback by the end of Q1 2024. Well
17H commenced drilling on January 12, 2024 and is expected to be
completed by the end of March 2024.
PetroTal 2024 Guidance Summary 2024 Guidance $/bbl
In USD millions unless stated (Midpoint)
------------------- ---------
Production & sales (bopd and bbls) (1) 17,000 / 6,222,000 -
Average Contracted Brent ($/bbl) $77.00 $77.00
------------------- ---------
Revenue $360 $57.85
Royalty payments (2) ($37) ($5.95)
Lifting costs ($37) ($5.95)
Transportation costs ($26) ($4.18)
Erosion control and community expense (3) ($30) ($4.82)
Net operating income $230 $36.95
G&A costs (4) ($30) ($4.82)
------------------- ---------
Adjusted EBITDA (5) $200 $32.13
------------------- ---------
Finance and tax expense (6,7) ($40) ($6.43)
------------------- ---------
Funds flow $160 $25.70
------------------- ---------
Capex (8) ($135) ($21.70)
------------------- ---------
Free funds flow $25 $4.00
Estimated 2024 net working capital movements (9) $11
Dividends and share buybacks (10) ($66)
Derivative true up payments (11) $5
------------------- ---------
Total 2024 change in cash (12) ($25)
------------------- ---------
Opening 2024 unrestricted cash $90
------------------- ---------
Estimated closing 2024 unrestricted cash $65
------------------- ---------
Notes:
1. Production guidance range is 16,500 to 17,500 bopd and
assumes matching production and sales profiles.
2. Royalties include the 2.5% social trust allocations.
3. Erosion control expense refers to erosion amounts expensed
related to community support totaling $23 million. The other $7
million pertains to ongoing community support opex projects.
4. 2024 G&A includes community spending and non-cash equity
compensation amounts totaling $8.4 million of the $30 million.
5. Adjusted EBITDA - see disclaimers and non Gaap financial metrics.
6. Finance expense includes factoring and other finance related items.
7. Taxes per table above indicate 2024 accrued taxes. Taxes
accrued in 2024 that will be cash paid in 2025 are approximately
$25 million.
8. Capex includes approximately $14 million of capitalized erosion control costs.
9. Estimated net working capital movements are approximately $30
million in cash savings from the payment of tax in 2025 offset by
prepaid erosion costs of approximately $15 million and other
smaller payable items.
10. Dividends are assumed at the base dividend level of
US$0.015/share and buybacks are assumed at $1.0 million per
month.
11. Derivative true up payments refer to expected payments from
Petroperu that reflect the difference in value from when the
Company's oil entered the ONP to when it is exported at Bayovar.
The assumed export at Bayovar represents approximately 500,000
barrels already in the ONP, is targeted for Q1 2024, and the
expected true up payment is based on using December 14, 2023 Brent
oil strip pricing.
12. "Adjusted EBITDA", "Free Funds Flow" and "Net Operating
Income" do not have standardized meanings under IFRS, See "Reader
Advisories - Specified Financial Measures".
Manuel Pablo Zuniga-Pflucker, President and Chief Executive
Officer, commented:
"PetroTal's fully funded 2024 budget has many exciting
components. Last year we were focused on repaying debt and starting
to return capital, with both items being successfully achieved in
early 2023. In 2024, the Company will continue to develop Bretana,
aiming to deliver 20% average daily production growth, while
maintaining our base return of capital program to offer around 12%
in total yield at current prices. We will also continue to invest
in critical safety infrastructure to protect the river banks near
our asset from future erosion threats.
Our exploration program will further advance our Block 95 and
107 expansion areas with the kickoff of a seismic program in Block
95 aimed at proving up the technical assumption of oil migration to
prospective leads on trend to the south of the Bretana Field.
I would like to wish everyone a productive 2024, and thank all
our shareholders, employees and wider stakeholders for their
continued support in 2023. As we look forward to 2024, we are
confident that the Company is well positioned to meet the
opportunities and challenges head on, with well 16H setting the
stage for a great year."
Overall Capital Program
The Company's board of directors has approved a three part
capital budget for 2024 totaling $135 million, an expected 13%
increase year on year.
-- First, Petrotal will spend approximately $107 million at the
Bretana oilfield for continued development, including approximately
$7 million carry forward amounts from our 2023 facilities plan.
-- Second, the Company will initiate a seismic program in Block
95, totaling $12 million, aimed at validating internal oil
migration models south of the Bretana oilfield. PetroTal estimates
there could be several commercial fields in Block 95, some of which
could be potentially as large as Bretana. In addition,
approximately $2 million will be allocated to Block 107 for
required permitting while the Company advances partnership
discussions for this block.
-- Third, PetroTal will allocate $14 million of capital to its
preventative erosion control program which will likely continue
into 2025. Approximately $10 million was spent in 2023 on temporary
erosion mitigation and engineering studies. The erosion control
project has been designed by a leading international engineering
firm specializing in coastal and river engineering solutions, and
is aimed at ensuring a permanent hydrology strategy to protect the
Bretana oilfield and nearby community.
Drilling and Facilities Program at Bretana
-- In 2024, having recently completed the 16H oil well, the
Company will drill and complete three other oil wells (17H, 18H,
and 19H) for an approximate cost of $50 million. These new wells
will be drilled in Q1, Q2, and Q3 2024 respectively, after which
the Company will assess its options based on oil price and
performance, and may continue drilling.
-- PetroTal's 2024 facilities program will be approximately $57
million and deployed with a focus on current and future fluid
handling and water handling infrastructure with many upgrades to
accommodate field sustainability over the long term. A summary of
these key projects is provided below:
o Facility upgrades and reliability improvements - $27
million
o Water injection facilities and flowlines - $14 million
o Logistics & dock upgrades, carbon footprint reduction and
studies - $12 million
o IT, digital and others - $4 million
Production and Sales Guidance
-- The Company is guiding 2024 average production and oil sales
to 17,000 bopd, with a range of 16,500 to 17,500 bopd, representing
an increase of approximately 20% over 2023 average production. The
forecast assumes a dry season as impactful as in 2023, which is
expected to be partially mitigated by dedicated barge unloading at
Manaus, and an upsized fleet capacity to 1.6 million barrels from
late 2023.
-- The Company will conduct pilot sales shipments to the OCP in
Ecuador of 200,000 barrels of oil with permanent recurring sales of
2,000 bopd assumed to start in Q4 2024.
-- A new sales route will commence through Yurimaguas to Bayovar
starting in July 2024, assuming permanent and recurring sales of
2,000 bopd at that time. This route will involve barging oil to
Yurimaguas and trucking to the Bayovar port for export.
-- No oil volumes are expected to be delivered through the
Northern Peruvian Pipeline ("ONP") in 2024 and the Company's budget
was contemplated using route to markets that are currently
commercial and or in development/pilot phase. Should the ONP become
a viable option in 2024, PetroTal will consider the financial and
technical risks of using the ONP as an additional dry season
coverage option.
Opex
Operating costs will consist of four parts: lifting,
transportation, erosion control, and community support totaling $93
million.
-- Lifting costs will be approximately $37 million, an increase
of $8 million from 2023 due to inflation adjusted fixed contract
services, increased chemical use and additional technical
allocations from G&A;
-- Transportation costs will be around $26 million in 2024 to
include barging, trucking, and terminal transfer costs for both the
Ecuadorian and Yurimaguas routes.
-- Erosion control in opex is estimated to be $23 million
($3.70/bbl) and represents erosion control mitigation that benefits
the nearby Bretana community.
-- Excluding erosion and community support, total lifting and
transportation costs are approximately $10.13/bbl, just slightly
above the 2023 amount.
G&A
-- G&A in 2024 will be approximately $30 million, roughly
flat from 2023. This equates to $4.82/bbl using the 2024 budget
midpoint production level . PetroTal's G&A includes
approximately $4.2 million in community support programs and $4.2
million in non-cash equity compensation for 2024. The operating and
G&A portion of community support will be reduced in future
years as social trust funds are invested in community projects.
Normalizing these items out of the G&A results in a run rate of
$3.47/bbl.
Dividends and Share Buybacks
-- The Company expects to continue its monthly share buyback
program at approximately $1.0 million per month.
-- PetroTal plans to maintain its base quarterly dividend of
US$0.015/share, along with dividend top up payments to be
determined at the declaration dates, pursuant to the Company's
dividend policy.
-- Total estimated returns from the Company's 2024 dividend and
buyback plan represent 12%, prior to any additional liquidity sweep
enhancements, based on a market capitalization of approximately
$550 million.
Other Items
-- 2024 taxes are expected to be $40 million on an accrued basis. The cash tax impact in 2024 is approximately $15 million, with the remainder of 2024's accrued tax being paid in early 2025.
-- True up revenue of $5 million is estimated in 2024 using the
December 14, 2023 Brent strip price for oil already in the ONP, but
which hasn't yet reached the Bayovar port for export. Please refer
to the Company's financial statements for a detailed explanation on
the mechanics of this arrangement.
Government and Community Amounts
-- PetroTal estimates its royalties to the government will be
approximately $28 million in 2024, an increase of almost $7 million
over 2023 based on higher production volumes in 2024.
-- In addition, approximately $9 million will be allocated to
the Company's 2.5% social fund for 2024 in addition to the $4.2
million of amounts estimated in G&A and approximately $7
million in opex. This totals approximately $20 million for social
funding in 2024.
Well 16H update
The Company is pleased to announce the first 7-day oil rate for
well 16H of 7,500 bopd. The well should be in line with or slightly
above the Company ' s performance expectations. Using a $42/bbl
netback assumption, the well should payout after producing
approximately 360,000 barrels of oil, estimated by the end of Q1
2024.
Drilling Commencement of Well 17H
PetroTal also announces the drilling commencement of well 17H,
the Company ' s 18th producing well, budgeted at $15.2 million with
production expected by the end of Q1 2024.
2024 Budget link for January 22, 2024 at 9am CT webcast
PetroTal will host a webcast to discuss its 2024 budget at
9:00am Central Time (3:00pm GMT). Please see the link below to
register.
https://stream.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/65967ac7b012a6d30b474779
Updated Investor Presentation
PetroTal has updated its investor presentation with the 2024
budget and is posted at www.petrotalcorp.com .
Pareto Conference
The Company will present at the Pareto Conference in London on
January 25, 2024 and will host an in-person presentation for
analysts on January 29, 2024.
About PetroTal
PetroTal is a publicly traded, tri--quoted (TSX: TAL, AIM: PTAL
and OTCQX: PTALF) oil and gas development and production Company
domiciled in Calgary, Alberta, focused on the development of oil
assets in Peru. PetroTal's flagship asset is its 100% working
interest in the Bretana oil field in Peru's Block 95 where oil
production was initiated in June 2018. In early 2022, PetroTal
became the largest crude oil producer in Peru. The Company's
management team has significant experience in developing and
exploring for oil in Peru and is led by a Board of Directors that
is focused on safely and cost effectively developing the Bretana
oil field. It is actively building new initiatives to champion
community sensitive energy production, benef iting all
stakeholders.
For further information, please see the Company's website at
www.petrotalcorp.com , the Company's filed documents at
www.sedarplus.ca , or below:
Douglas Urch
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Durch@PetroTal-Corp.com
T: (713) 609-9101
Manolo Zuniga
President and Chief Executive Officer
Mzuniga@PetroTal-Corp.comT: (713) 609-9101
PetroTal Investor Relations
InvestorRelations@PetroTal-Corp.com
Celicourt Communications
Mark Antelme / Jimmy Lea
petrotal@celicourt.uk
T : 44 (0) 20 7770 6424
Strand Hanson Limited (Nominated & Financial Adviser)
Ritchie Balmer / James Spinney / Robert Collins
T: 44 (0) 207 409 3494
Stifel Nicolaus Europe Limited (Joint Broker)
Callum Stewart / Simon Mensley / Ashton Clanfield
T: +44 (0) 20 7710 7600
Peel Hunt LLP (Joint Broker)
Richard Crichton / David McKeown / Georgia Langoulant
T: +44 (0) 20 7418 8900
READER ADVISORIES
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS: This press release contains certain
statements that may be deemed to be forward-looking statements.
Such statements relate to possible future events. All statements
other than statements of historical fact may be forward-looking
statements. Forward-looking statements are often, but not always,
identified by the use of words such as "anticipate", "believe",
"expect", "plan", "estimate", "potential", "will", "should",
"continue", "may", "objective" and similar expressions. Without
limitation, this press release contains forward-looking statements
pertaining to: PetroTal ' s intention to continue to develop the
Bretana asset; the targeted 20% growth rate from 2023; PetroTal ' s
forecast 2024 funds flow of $160 million; plans with respect to the
Company ' s seismic program in the southern part of Block 95
including with respect to its intended duration and purposes;
PetroTal ' s intentions to continue seeking a partner for
co-investment for Block 107 and obtain development permits; the
positioning of the Company in 2024; PetroTal ' s intentions with
respect to its return of capital program (including that it will
maintain a 12% yield and that the program will continue to consist
of dividends at $0.015/share and buybacks of approximately $1.0
million/month in accordance with the Company ' s return of capital
policy); PetroTal ' s plans to commercialize new sales routes
through the OCP in Ecuador and through Yurimaguas to Bayovar and
the anticipated benefits therefrom (including in respect of
production estimates) and the timing thereof; expectations
surrounding the Company ' s 2.5% social fund including PetroTal ' s
intended capital allocation of $9 million towards the fund;
PetroTal ' s plans to defer drilling a water disposal well into
2025 and expectations regarding capacity within the Company ' s
existing water disposal wells throughout 2024; estimated returns
from the Company ' s 2024 dividend and buyback plan; drilling plans
including with respect to the commencement and completion of
drilling wells 17H, 18H, and 19H; intentions regarding well 17H,
including in respect of timing and budgetary expectations;
estimated payback from well 16H and the timing thereof; PetroTal '
s plans to continue to allocate capital to its long term
preventative erosion control program; PetroTal ' s 2024 budget for
the erosion control project and plans in respect thereof; the 2024
Capex budget; plans with respect to PetroTal ' s 2024
facilities
program including anticipated key projects and expenditures in
respect thereof; and PetroTal ' s expectations regarding 2024
operating costs. In addition, statements relating to expected
production, reserves, recovery, replacement, costs and valuation
are deemed to be forward-looking statements as they involve the
implied assessment, based on certain estimates and assumptions that
the reserves described can be profitably produced in the future.
The forward-looking statements are based on certain key
expectations and assumptions made by the Company, including, but
not limited to, expectations and assumptions concerning the ability
of existing infrastructure to deliver production and the
anticipated capital expenditures associated therewith, the ability
to obtain necessary permits, the ability of government groups to
effectively achieve objectives in respect of reducing social
conflict and collaborating towards continued investment in the
energy sector, reservoir characteristics, recovery factor,
exploration upside, prevailing commodity prices and the actual
prices received for PetroTal's products, including pursuant to
hedging arrangements, the availability and performance of drilling
rigs, facilities, pipelines, other oilfield services and skilled
labour, royalty regimes and exchange rates, the impact of inflation
on costs, the application of regulatory and licensing requirements,
the accuracy of PetroTal's geological interpretation of its
drilling and land opportunities, current legislation, receipt of
required regulatory approval, the success of future drilling and
development activities, the performance of new wells, future river
water levels, the Company's growth strategy, general economic
conditions and availability of required equipment and services.
Although the Company believes that the expectations and assumptions
on which the forward-looking statements are based are reasonable,
undue reliance should not be placed on the forward-looking
statements because the Company can give no assurance that they will
prove to be correct. Since forward-looking statements address
future events and conditions, by their very nature they involve
inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ
materially from those currently anticipated due to a number of
factors and risks. These include, but are not limited to, risks
associated with the oil and gas industry in general (e.g.,
operational risks in development, exploration and production;
delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or
development projects or capital expenditures; the uncertainty of
reserve estimates; the uncertainty of estimates and projections
relating to production, costs and expenses; and health, safety and
environmental risks), commodity price volatility, price
differentials and the actual prices received for products, exchange
rate fluctuations, legal, political and economic instability in
Peru, access to transportation routes and markets for the Company's
production, changes in legislation affecting the oil and gas
industry and uncertainties resulting from potential delays or
changes in plans with respect to exploration or development
projects or capital expenditures; changes in the financial
landscape both domestically and abroad, including volatility in the
stock market and financial system; and wars (including Russia's war
in Ukraine, the Israeli- Hamas conflict and the Houthis attacks in
the Red Sea). Please refer to the risk factors identified in the
Company's most recent annual information form and management ' s
discussion and analysis (the " MD&A") which are available on
SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca . The forward-looking statements
contained in this press release are made as of the date hereof and
the Company undertakes no obligation to update publicly or revise
any forward-looking statements or information, whether as a result
of new information, future events or otherwise, unless so required
by applicable securities laws.
SHORT-TERM RESULTS: References in this press release to peak
production rates, current production rates, initial 14-day
production rates and other short-term production rates are useful
in confirming the presence of hydrocarbons, however such rates are
not determinative of the rates at which such wells will commence
production and decline thereafter and are not indicative of long
term performance or of ultimate recovery. While encouraging,
readers are cautioned not to place reliance on such rates in
calculating the aggregate production for PetroTal. The Company
cautions that such results should be considered to be
preliminary.
OIL REFERENCES: All references to "oil" or "crude oil"
production, revenue or sales in this press release mean "heavy
crude oil" as defined in National Instrument 51-101 Standards of
Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities ( " NI 51-101").
SPECIFIED FINANCIAL MEASURES: This press release includes
various specified financial measures, including non-GAAP financial
measures, non-GAAP financial ratios and capital management measures
such as " Netback ", " EBITDA", " Adjusted EBITDA", " Net Operating
Income" and " free funds flow". These measures do not have a
standardized meaning prescribed by generally accepted accounting
principles ( " GAAP") and, therefore, may not be comparable with
the calculation of similar measures. Management uses these non-GAAP
measures for its own performance measurement and to provide
shareholders and investors with additional measurements of the
Company's efficiency and its ability to fund a portion of its
future capital expenditures. " Netback " (non-GAAP financial
measure) equals total petroleum sales less quality discount,
lifting costs, transportation costs and royalty payments calculated
on a bbl basis. The Company considers netbacks to be a key measure
as they demonstrate Company ' s profitability relative to current
commodity prices. " EBITDA" (non-GAAP financial measure) is
calculated as consolidated net income (loss) before interest and
financing expenses, income taxes, depletion, depreciation and
amortization and adjusted for G&A impacts and certain non-cash,
extraordinary and non-recurring items primarily relating to
unrealized gains and losses on financial instruments and impairment
losses, including derivative true-up settlements. PetroTal utilizes
EBITDA as a measure of operational performance and cash flow
generating capability. EBITDA impacts the level and extent of
funding for capital projects investments. " Adjusted EBITDA"
(non-GAAP financial measure) is calculated as consolidated net
income (loss) before interest and financing expenses, income taxes,
depletion, depreciation and amortization and adjusted for G&A
impacts and certain non-cash, extraordinary and non-recurring items
primarily relating to unrealized gains and losses on financial
instruments and impairment losses, including derivative true-up
settlements. PetroTal utilizes adjusted EBITDA as a measure of
operational performance and cash flow generating capability.
Adjusted EBITDA impacts the level and extent of funding for capital
projects investments. Reference to EBITDA is calculated as net
operating income less G&A. " Net Operating Income" (non-GAAP
financial measure) is calculated as revenues less royalties,
operating expenses, and direct transportation. The Company
considers Net Operating Income measure as they demonstrate Company
' s profitability relative to current commodity prices. " Free
funds flow" (non-GAAP financial measure) is calculated as net
operating income less G&A less exploration and development
capital expenditures less realized derivative gains/losses and is
calculated prior to all debt service, taxes, lease payments, hedge
costs, factoring, and lease payments. Management uses free funds
flow to determine the amount of funds available to the Company for
future capital allocation decisions. Please refer to the MD&A
for additional information relating to specified financial
measures.
FOFI DISCLOSURE: This press release contains future-oriented
financial information and financial outlook information
(collectively, "FOFI") about PetroTal's 2024 fully funded budget
and guidance, prospective results of operations, estimated growth
rate, 2024 targets (including production and sales targets), 2024
average sales target of 17,000 bopd, initial 14 day production rate
for well 16H of 6,000 bopd, production capacity, forecast funds
flow of $160 million, free funds flow of $25 million and the
components thereof including dividends and share buybacks and the
targeted 12% return therefrom as well as derivative true up
payments, erosion control and community expense, revenue, capex,
average contracted brent, EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, estimated
closing 2024 cash and components thereof including estimated net
working capital movements, forecast 2024 funds flow, free funds
flow, free funds flow (after capex), payout of wells, estimated
payback, netback, OPEX and the components thereof, G&A expenses
and the components thereof, tax rates, Capex, royalty rates, future
investments and capital allocation (including capital deployed
towards any government and community amounts in 2024 such as the
2.5% social fund), net operating income, shareholder returns and
components thereof, all of which are subject to the same
assumptions, risk factors, limitations and qualifications as set
forth in the above paragraphs. FOFI contained in this press release
was approved by management as of the date of this press release and
was included for the purpose of providing further information about
PetroTal's anticipated future business operations. PetroTal
disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any FOFI
contained in this press release, whether as a result of new
information, future events or otherwise, unless required pursuant
to applicable law. Readers are cautioned that the FOFI contained in
this press release should not be used for purposes other than for
which it is disclosed herein. All FOFI contained in this press
release complies with the requirements of Canadian securities
legislation, including NI 51-101. Changes in forecast commodity
prices,
differences in the timing of capital expenditures, and variances
in average production estimates can have a significant impact on
the key performance measures included in PetroTal's guidance. The
Company's actual results may differ materially from these
estimates.
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