Nine months into 2021, home prices across the
United States continue to climb at record pace.
In September, home prices appreciated nationally at an
annualized 17.6 percent from the prior month. This marks the sixth
consecutive month of reporting an all-time record month-over-month
rate, according to Radian Home Price Index (HPI) data released
today by Red Bell Real Estate, LLC, a Radian Group Inc. company
(NYSE: RDN). The company believes the Radian HPI is the most
comprehensive and timely measure of U.S. housing market prices and
conditions available in the market today.
This press release features multimedia. View
the full release here:
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211103006224/en/
Radian Home Price Index (HPI) Infographic
October 2021 (Graphic: Business Wire)
The Radian HPI has risen at an annualized rate of 13.9 percent
over the nine-month period (January to September 2021), which is
nearly 40-percent higher than the rate of the same period in 2020.
Over the past year the median national estimate is 12.1 percent
higher. These annualized increases represent the continuation of
the general upward trend in home price gains with faster
acceleration coming in more recent months. The Radian HPI is
calculated based on the estimated values of more than 70 million
unique addresses each month, covering all single-family property
types and geographies.
“Given the rapid rise in home prices over a relatively short
period of time, the Radian HPI is constantly mining the data to
find signs of a shift in current housing strength--and so far, it
seems to be heading in one direction,” noted Steve Gaenzler, SVP of
Data and Analytics. “While there are some indications that
affordability may be starting to place strain on certain home
buyers, the limited supply is a strong support for home price
growth.” Gaenzler added that, “ultimately while bidding wars may be
reducing in frequency, sellers are still receiving above list price
offers in many situations.”
NATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS
- Median estimated home price in the U.S. rose to $294,488
- Sales represent a high percentage of listings
Nationally, the median estimated price for single-family and
condominium homes rose to $294,488. Since the onset of the pandemic
in March 2020, homes across the U.S. have appreciated, on average,
by more than $41,000 significantly adding to borrower home equity
for mortgage holders.
The number of homes for sale fell from August to September.
However, while falling listing counts is not uncommon in the U.S.
after the summer season, the number of homes actively listed for
sale in the U.S this month stood at the lowest level for any ninth
month (September) over the last 13 years (Chart: Right Axis). In
contrast to the continued shortage of available properties for
sale, and despite the significant increase in home prices recently,
the demand for properties continues to grow. In September 2021, the
percent of homes purchased as a percentage of the number of homes
listed for sale stood at 34 percent. This is nearly double the
average monthly absorption rate for the 180 months (15 years) prior
to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic (Chart: Left Axis).
REGIONAL DATA AND TRENDS
- All Regions reported faster appreciation rates than prior
month
- South and West show the strongest overall appreciation rates
for the third straight month
In September, all six Regional indices recorded higher annual
home price appreciation rates than the prior month. The South and
West regions recorded the strongest annualized one-month
appreciation rates for the third consecutive month (20.4 and 18.3
percent respectively). While the South and West recorded the
highest overall appreciation rates, the Midwest reported the
largest month over month increase in appreciation rate at 242 basis
points higher than the prior month (16.2 vs. 13.8 percent). Of
note, September has been the month with the fastest, annualized
one-month appreciation rate for both 2020 and 2021, the pandemic
years.
Over the last year, the Mid-Atlantic region has posted the
slowest appreciation rate of all regions (9.9 percent) and was the
only region to report a slower appreciation rate in September 2021
compared to the prior month.
Home prices continue to be supported by a lack of supply. Months
of Supply, which is measured as the current month’s active listings
divided by last month's sales, fell last month and settled at 2.71
months. This was the fourth lowest ratio on record and only
slightly higher than the all-time record low ratio of 2.49 months
measured in January of this year.
METROPOLITAN AREA DATA AND TRENDS
- Appreciation rates rise in a majority of largest metro
areas
- Large cities are becoming less affordable faster than smaller
cities
Among the 20-largest metropolitan areas of the U.S, more than
half of them (13) recorded faster annual (12-month) price
appreciation in September when compared to the prior month. Of the
seven metros that did not record faster annual appreciation rates
this month, for all but two of them, September was still faster
than any month other than August making their decrease inconclusive
as to a shift in market strength or the start of a decline in
appreciation rates.
Appreciation rates have been strong broadly across metro
markets. Whether higher priced or lower priced, homes are
appreciating at largely, similar rates. As such, when comparing
appreciation by median home price level, the difference between the
median price in the most expensive and least expensive housing
market has widened over the past few years.
ABOUT THE RADIAN HPI
Red Bell Real Estate, LLC, a subsidiary of Radian Group Inc.,
provides national and regional indices for download at
radian.com/hpi, along with information on how to access the full
library of indices.
Additional content on the housing market can also be found on
the Radian Insights page located at
https://radian.com/news-and-knowledge/insights.
Red Bell offers the Radian HPI data set along with a client
access portal for content visualization and data extraction. The
engine behind the Radian HPI has created more than 100,000 unique
data series, which are updated on a monthly basis.
The Radian HPI Portal is a self-service data and visualization
platform that contains a library of thousands of high-value indices
based on both geographic dimensions as well as by market, or
property attributes. The platform provides monthly updated access
to nine different geographic dimensions, from the national level
down to zip codes. In addition, the Radian HPI provides unique
insights into market changes, conditions and strength across
multiple property attributes, including bedroom count and livable
square footage. To help enhance customers’ understanding of
granular real estate markets, the library is expanded regularly to
include more insightful indices.
In addition to the services offered by its Red Bell subsidiary,
Radian is ensuring the American dream of homeownership responsibly
and sustainably through products and services that include
industry-leading mortgage insurance and a comprehensive suite of
mortgage, risk, title, valuation, asset management and other real
estate services. The company is powered by technology, informed by
data and driven to deliver new and better ways to transact and
manage risk.
Visit http://www.radian.com to see how Radian is shaping the
future of mortgage and real estate services.
View source
version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211103006224/en/
For Investors John Damian – Phone: 215.231.1383 Email:
john.damian@radian.com
For the Media Rashi Iyer – Phone: 215.231.1167 Email:
rashi.iyer@radian.com
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