Annual growth in absolute emissions was less
than 1% for third consecutive year
CALGARY,
AB, Nov. 7, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Absolute
greenhouse gas emissions from Canadian oil sands production
registered a nominal increase of less than 1% in 2023 even as total
production grew, according to a new analysis by S&P Global
Commodity Insights. Since 2020, absolute emissions growth from oil
sands has slowed to average about 1% per year compared to 5% in the
proceeding decade.
The slowdown in absolute emissions growth has occurred even as
oil sands production continues to increase. Compared to 2019,
absolute emissions were 3% higher (3 million metric tons of carbon
dioxide) in 2023. Meanwhile, oil sands production grew by 9%
(250,000 barrels per day) over the same period. By contrast, in the
preceding decade (2010-19), absolute emissions increased, on
average, by nearly 3 million metric tons of carbon dioxide per year
while production grew at an annual average of 200,000 barrels per
day.
"The years-long trend of declining greenhouse gas intensity,
coupled with slower production growth continues to slow the rise of
absolute emissions," said Kevin
Birn, Vice President, Canadian Oil Markets Chief
Analyst and Head of Center for Emissions Excellence, S&P
Global Commodity Insights. "The fact that the rate of production
additions is outstripping emissions growth indicates that the
production that is coming forward is of a much lower intensity than
the overall average."
The S&P Global Commodity Insights Oil Sands
Dialogue analysis finds that the average GHG intensity of oil
sands production fell to 58 kilograms of "carbon dioxide
equivalent" per barrel (kgCO2e/bbl) in 2023, the most recent year
that S&P Global Commodity Insights estimates are available.
Since 2009 the average GHG intensity of oil sands production has
declined by nearly 28% or nearly 23 kgCO2e/b of marketable
product.
S&P Global Commodity Insights has previously noted that the
lower pace of absolute emissions growth may indicate oil sands
emissions could peak sooner, and at a lower level than previously
expected. The latest analysis, based on 2023 operations, continues
to suggest this could be the case. Nevertheless, absolute emissions
are still expected to rise in the near term due to more pronounced
production additions expected in the next few years.
"Anticipated production additions are expected to outstrip
intensity reductions in the near term, and that means that greater
decarbonization efforts from the sector will likely be required to
meet the proposed federal oil and gas emissions limit by 2030,"
said Birn. "Bringing sufficient carbon and storage capacity online
in just a few short years will be a challenge. However, the slower
pace of emissions additions could make the proposed 2030 emissions
limit more achievable."
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Asia: Melissa Tan +
65-6597-6241, melissa.tan@spglobal.com
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SOURCE S&P Global Commodity Insights
