--Peru's central bank increased amount private pension funds can
invest abroad
--Economists say regulatory change unlikely to stop sol's
appreciation trend
--Peru's sol strengthened some 5.4% against the U.S. dollar in
2012
By Ryan Dube
LIMA, Peru--The recent increase in how much Peru's private
pension funds can invest abroad shouldn't have much of an impact on
the sol's trend of appreciating against the U.S. dollar,
private-sector economists say.
Like other emerging market currencies, the sol has appreciated
steadily against the dollar in recent years as the Peruvian economy
has posted strong growth. The sol strengthened about 5.4% against
the greenback last year, while in 2011 it gained about 4%.
Some private-sector groups have raised concerns the stronger
currency is hurting Peruvian businesses and have called on the
government to do more to cool its appreciation.
The Central Reserve Bank of Peru has taken measures to slow the
appreciation of the local currency, including intervening in the
foreign exchange market each day to purchase dollars and raising
reserve requirements to slow credit growth.
Last week, the central bank also increased the maximum amount of
assets under management that private pension funds, known as AFPs,
can invest in international markets to 32% from 30%. The increase
is equivalent to an extra $750 million that can be invested outside
of Peru.
At a press conference Tuesday the chief investment officers at
the four AFPs currently operating agreed the change won't do much
to slow the sol's appreciation.
"The tendency for a stronger sol continues," said Aldo Ferrini,
the head of investments at AFP Integra SA.
Jose Roca, the chief investment officer at Prima AFP, said the
sol could appreciate another 4% to 5% this year.
"We estimate that the appreciation could be close to what we've
seen in the last few years," Mr. Roca said.
In a report, Scotiabank Peru said the regulatory change's impact
on the sol will be less than the last time the central bank
increased the ceiling for AFPs to invest abroad. The last increase,
which occurred in 2010, was equivalent to 1.3 times the daily
volume traded in the foreign exchange market, while the latest hike
is equivalent to 0.7 times the daily volume, according to
Scotiabank.
"Given the growth in the foreign exchange market, it is likely
that there will be in the future new increases in the investment
limit abroad," the bank said.
RBS also said in a report that the regulatory changes are
unlikely to "make a difference" in the sol's appreciation. "We do
not expect the decision to have any significant impact on the
exchange rate because demand for new assets abroad will be gradual
and foreign currency exposure from assets abroad is normally hedged
back into local currency to eliminate the exchange rate risk," it
said.
RBS said it forecasts the sol to finish 2013 at PEN2.45 per
dollar. The sol closed Tuesday at PEN2.554 per dollar.
Write to Ryan Dube at ryan.dube@dowjones.com