Starwood European Real Estate Finance Ltd (SWEF)
SWEF September 2020 Fact Sheet
23-Oct-2020 / 07:00 GMT/BST
Dissemination of a Regulatory Announcement that contains inside information
according to REGULATION (EU) No 596/2014 (MAR), transmitted by EQS Group.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.
23 October 2020
Starwood European Real Estate Finance Limited: Quarterly Factsheet
Publication
Starwood European Real Estate Finance Limited (the "Company") announces that
the factsheet for the quarter ended on 30 September 2020 is available at:
www.starwoodeuropeanfinance.com [1]
Investment Portfolio at 30 September 2020
As at 30 September 2020, the Group had 18 investments and commitments of
GBP503.8 million as follows:
Sterling equivalent Sterling equivalent
balance (1) unfunded commitment
(1)
Hospitals, UK GBP25.0 m
Hotel & Residential, UK GBP49.9 m
Office, Scotland GBP4.7 m GBP0.3 m
Office, London GBP13.1 m GBP7.4 m
Residential, London GBP33.4 m GBP2.0 m
Hotel, Oxford GBP16.7 m GBP6.3 m
Hotel, Scotland GBP27.2 m GBP15.5 m
Hotel, Berwick GBP10.5 m GBP4.5 m
Logistics Portfolio, UK GBP12.0 m
(2)
Total Sterling Loans GBP192.5 m GBP36.0 m
Three Shopping Centres, GBP33.8 m
Spain
Shopping Centre , Spain GBP15.5 m
Hotel, Dublin GBP54.8 m
Hotel, Spain GBP46.5 m GBP3.0 m
Office & Hotel, Madrid, GBP16.9 m GBP0.9 m
Spain
Mixed Portfolio, Europe GBP30.9 m
Mixed Use, Dublin GBP2.4 m GBP11.0 m
Office Portfolio, Spain GBP19.3 m GBP2.2 m
Office Portfolio, GBP32.1 m
Ireland
Logistics Portfolio, GBP6.0 m
Germany (2)
Total Euro Loans GBP258.2 m GBP17.1 m
Total Portfolio GBP450.7 m GBP53.1 m
1) Euro balances translated to sterling at period end exchange rate.
2) Logistics Portfolio, UK and Logistics Portfolio, Germany is one single
loan agreement with sterling and Euro tranches.
Portfolio Update
All loan interest and scheduled amortisation payments up to the date of this
factsheet has been paid in full and on time.
Notwithstanding the pandemic-related disruption continuing to be
experienced, the portfolio continues to be robust and portfolio performance
is in line with expectations. In the sectors that are most impacted,
hospitality and retail, borrowers remain adequately capitalised. Loan
interest and amortisation continue to be paid, with pandemic related
business plans in place to deal with any underlying income displacement
being experienced.
Key updates are outlined below;
Hospitality (36 per cent of Investment Portfolio)
· The largest hotel exposure (Hotel, Dublin), at 27 per cent of
hospitality exposure, continues to benefit from a license in place to the
Health Service Executive. This has de-risked the impact of pandemic in the
medium term.
· The UK hotel exposures (Hotel Oxford, Scotland and North Berwick,
accounting for 33 per cent of hotels in the portfolio) all successfully
re-opened during the summer following the lifting of domestic travel
restrictions. Trading was generally positive despite the backdrop of the
market wider uncertainty. This reflected the domestic demand for
staycation breaks in the UK, particularly for leisure destinations with
nearby outdoor facilities such as golf which is offered by the Hotel
Scotland and North Berwick. All three of these hotels have comprehensive
re-positioning capex plans in place which sees each sponsor injecting
material additional equity into the properties. Each hotel will close, in
Q4 2020 (two hotels) and Q1 2021 (one hotel), in line with the
underwritten business plans, while refurbishment projects are underway,
re-opening during 2021 with a re-branded, fully refurbished offering.
· Hotel, Spain (accounting for 29 per cent of hospitality exposure)
completed a heavy refurbishment project in late summer 2020 and opened for
a very successful short marketing period before closing until April 2021.
The underwritten business plan and hotel operating model sees this hotel
closing annually during the winter months in any event and the sponsor
remains well capitalised to fund any operational cash shortfalls.
· All hospitality loans have adequate resources to meet their cash needs
in the medium term.
Retail (12.8 per cent of Investment Portfolio)
· Retail re-opened across Europe following the lifting of local
restrictions. Footfall on the Group's exposure to four Spanish shopping
centres has recovered to approximately 73 per cent of 2019 levels since
re-opening and encouragingly retail sales levels have increased further
with spend per head approximately 5 per cent up on comparative periods in
the prior year.
· Loans with retail exposure continue to have adequate cash reserves to
pay interest, with detailed business plans in place to deal with any
underlying income displacement related to granting tenants concessions
during shutdown and recovery periods.
Construction & Heavy Refurbishment (20.6 per cent of Investment Portfolio)
· The Group's construction and heavy refurbishment exposure has materially
decreased with the successful completion of the Hotel, Spain project in
late summer.
· While some construction programme disruption has been experienced by
mandated site shutdowns and the adjustment of work practices to new
covid-19 related industry regulations, all sites have now re-opened. All
general contractors and material sub-contractors have satisfactorily
returned to site. The construction loans remain adequately capitalised
with funding in place to complete projects.
· Please note that the construction & heavy refurbishment exposure noted
above will include assets also included in Hospitality and in Office,
Industrial, Logistics & Residential.
Office, Industrial, Logistics & Residential (45.4 per cent of Investment
Portfolio)
· These sectors continue to display resilient characteristics in terms of
rent collection.
· All of the Group's material exposure to residential is either under
construction or newly completed, held for-sale product. Residential sales
of both completed and under construction units have continued throughout
the pandemic. Factors such as stamp duty reductions, weak Sterling and
continued foreign investor interest in the capital have assisted in
incentivising purchasers to transact. Average selling prices continue to
track ahead of underwritten values on the residential portfolio.
Current and Future Dividend
On 22 October 2020, the Directors declared a dividend in respect of the
third quarter of 1.625 pence per Ordinary Share, equating to an annualised
6.5 pence per annum. This was covered 0.86x by earnings excluding unrealised
FX gains.
The Board and Investment Adviser recognise the importance of stable and
predictable dividends for our shareholders. Accordingly, we hold a dividend
reserve built up over several years which we have been using to maintain the
annual dividend at 6.5 pence per share over the last twenty one months even
though the dividend has been uncovered by earnings more recently. As a
result of this reserve, dividends have not therefore been paid out of
capital reserves. The Company intends to continue to use the remaining
reserve to maintain the annual dividend at 6.5 pence per share for the rest
of 2020 which will leave a small reserve remaining. The target dividend for
2021 is 5.5 pence per share which the company believes will be capable of
being covered.
Expected Credit Losses
Please refer to the 31 March and 30 June 2020 factsheets for a detailed
overview of the classification of loans and the process for the recognition
of Expected Credit Losses.
At 30 September 2020 six loans with a value of 35.2 per cent of NAV are
classified as Stage 2 (the six loans unchanged since 30 June 2020 when they
represented 33 per cent of NAV and are as disclosed in the Group's interim
reporting) and the remaining loans are still classified as Stage 1. The
loans classified to Stage 2 are predominantly in the retail and hospitality
sectors (but not all hospitality loans are in Stage 2). The main reason for
moving the loans to Stage 2 in the second quarter was expected income
covenant breaches due to the disruption from Covid-19 and there has been no
material update to our analysis in this respect during the third quarter. It
is important to note that although these six loans have been classified as
Stages 2 no expected credit loss has been recognized as although credit risk
has increased for these loans we do not currently anticipate realizing a
loss.
Fair Value
The amortised cost loan recognition is governed by IFRS9 and we do not have
a choice of methodology to follow - we are not eligible to follow fair value
accounting for the vast majority of our loans, and in our almost eight year
history only one loan has ever been eligible to be recognized at fair value
(the credit linked notes which repaid in the second quarter of this year).
Therefore our NAV does not show significant fluctuations during periods of
market volatility.
The table below represents the fair value of the loans based on a discounted
cash flow basis using different discount rates.
Discount Rate Value Calculated % of book value
4.7% GBP475.5 m 105.1%
5.2% GBP469.5 m 103.8%
5.4% GBP463.7 m 102.5%
5.7% GBP460.8 m 102.7%
6.2% GBP457.9 m 101.2%
6.7% GBP452.3 m (= book value) 100.0%
7.2% GBP446.8 m 98.8%
7.7% GBP441.3 m 97.6%
8.2% GBP436.0 m 96.4%
8.7% GBP430.8 m 95.3%
The effective interest rate ("EIR") - i.e. the discount rate at which future
cash flows equal the amortised cost, is 6.7 per cent. We have sensitised the
cash flows at EIR intervals of 0.5 per cent up to +/- 2.0 per cent. The
table reflects how a change in market interest rates or credit risk premiums
may impact the fair value of the portfolio versus the amortised cost.
Further, the Group considers the EIR of 6.7 per cent to be conservative as
many of these loans were part of a business plan which involved
transformation and many of these business plans are advanced in the
execution and therefore significantly de-risked from the original
underwriting and pricing (for example the Hotel, Spain). The volatility of
the fair to movements in discount rates is low due to the low remaining
duration of most loans.
Loan to Value
Given the need for the Group and most of its peers to record loans at
amortised cost, the loan to value of companies in our sector has
understandably been an area of focus for many of our shareholders and
stakeholders seeking to understand underlying risk further.
In order to try to assist in understanding the underlying credit risk, we
have always quoted the last GBP loan to value ("last LTV") of our portfolio
and have outlined further detail below on our approach to this calculation.
Methodology
Our methodology to calculate the last LTV for each individual loan is:-
Total loan drawn less any deductible lender controlled cash
reserves and less any amortization received to date (including
any debt provided by other lenders which rank alongside or
senior to the Group's position)
Market value determined by the last formal lender valuation
received by the reporting date
Each individual loan LTV is then weighted by the amount of the loan
currently drawn (in the Group only, ignoring the position of other third
party lenders) to give a weighted average last LTV across the Group's
portfolio.
Valuations Process
The following describes the valuation basis that is used in our calculation.
As the vast majority of our portfolio is originated directly by the
Investment Adviser, the Group has discretion over when and how to instruct
valuations. We consider this to be a strength of our valuation process as we
have control over timing and complete access to the detail of the valuation
process and the output. Where loans are not directly originated the lender
could have a lack of control over the timing and no input to the process
which we prefer to avoid where possible.
· On the origination of a loan, for a straight forward standing investment
asset (for example, an occupied office), the independent open market value
determined by an independent valuer under RICS guidelines will be used.
When considering the relevance of these valuations in the current market,
it is important to consider how quickly a portfolio churns. Our average
loan term from origination to repayment is approximately 2.5 years and
therefore our valuations have always been fresh. 30.2 per cent of our
total portfolio was originated in the last 12 months, 48.5 per cent in the
last 18 months (including the 30.2 per cent in the last 12 months).
· After loan origination the Group has the right under loan documents to
obtain valuations on an annual basis at the expense of the borrower (based
on loan anniversary, not Group financial year end). Where a follow on
valuation has been done we use the latest valuation number in our
calculations. However, the Group does not instruct independent third party
valuations on a strict annual basis, only when it is considered necessary
and useful to obtain one. Of the 69.8 per cent of loans on our books which
are older than 12 months, 54 per cent have had the valuation updated since
the loan was originated (comprising 37.5% of the total loan book). We
consider it is unlikely to be valuable to instruct a new valuation on many
of these assets at this point in the Covid-19 crisis as it is ongoing and
are generally preferring to maintain the option to have a valuation done
at a time where the valuation will have a higher utility.
· For development projects there are a number of potential valuation
methodologies. Our selected approach is based on giving the clearest and
most consistent presentation of the risk. For development projects our
calculation includes the total facility available and is calculated
against the appraised market value on completion of the relevant project.
There are other potential approaches such as using current drawn loan
balance and current value or using total cost as a proxy for value.
However each of these approaches has limitations. For example, using the
approach of drawn loan balance divided by current project value will
typically understate the LTV in the earlier days of a development when
less debt is drawn before converging to a higher LTV that matches our
methodology at the end once all the debt is drawn. We generally retain the
same rights to valuation on development loans as for investment assets. It
is also worth noting that the weighting of the loan within the portfolio
calculation is based off the latest drawn balance and not the total loan
commitment.
On the basis of the methodology outlined above, at 30 September 2020 the
Group has an average last LTV of 62.6 per cent (30 June 2020: 62.9 per
cent).
The table below shows the sensitivity of the loan to value calculation for
movements in the underlying property valuation and demonstrates that the
Group has considerable headroom within the currently reported last LTVs.
Change in Valuation Hospitality Retail Residential Other Total
-15% 73.0% 79.9% 69.9% 74.0% 73.6%
-10% 68.9% 75.4% 66.0% 69.9% 69.5%
-5% 65.3% 71.5% 62.5% 66.2% 65.9%
0% 62.0% 67.9% 59.4% 62.9% 62.6%
5% 59.1% 64.6% 56.5% 59.9% 59.6%
10% 56.4% 61.7% 54.0% 57.2% 56.9%
15% 53.9% 59.0% 51.6% 54.7% 54.4%
Share Price Performance and Share Buy Backs
During the third quarter, the Company's shares returned 0.5 per cent on a
total return basis. Despite market dislocation and volatility, the share
price has been less volatile than in the previous quarter, trading in the
narrow range between 83.6 pence and 88.0 pence. This price stability has
been supported by the share buy-back programme started at the end of the
previous quarter (see below).
Over the three months ended 30 September, the share price traded at an
average discount to the cum-div NAV of 17 per cent which has improved
marginally from the 18 per cent average seen in the previous quarter. The
Board and the Investment Adviser continue to believe that the shares to
represent very attractive value at this level and a member of the Board of
Directors has made personal share purchases during the quarter, as disclosed
by the Company at the time.
The Company received authority at the most recent AGM to purchase up to
14.99 per cent of the Ordinary Shares in issue on 8 June 2020 and since
then, in August 2020, the Board engaged Jefferies International Limited as
buy-back agent to effect share buy backs on behalf of the Company. During
the third quarter the Company bought back 1,592,000 shares at an average
cost per share of 85.17p per share and these shares are held in treasury.
Share buy backs are subject to available cash.
Market Commentary and Outlook
There has been a continuous level of significant news flow in 2020 with the
global COVID pandemic, US Elections and Brexit to name just a few topics
which have caused swings in investor sentiment during the year. However,
since the volatility in spring, many market indices are practically
unchanged over the past couple of quarters. The FTSE 100 closed at 5,970 on
the 13th of October with a very low variance having closed at 6,095 and
5,791 three and six months ago. The VIX is slightly lower at 25.5 versus
27.2 this time last quarter reflecting relatively steady market volatility
and the iShares UK Property ETF is practically unchanged over six months at
495.00 pence compared with 495.15 pence at the time of our June factsheet
and 495.85 pence three months before that.
The interest rate environment is also relatively unchanged since the
previous factsheet with Sterling Libor at 0.05 per cent and the curve
remaining extremely flat with the Sterling 5-year swap rate at only 0.11 per
cent. With rates so low investors are keen to find yield which has supported
record European issuance in both investment grade and non-investment grade
credit in 2020. In the US the CMBS market is firing on all cylinders and all
in interest costs for US borrowers in this market have never been lower. We
are also seeing strong appetite for income producing real estate debt in
Europe from insurance companies and international banks. With limited
acquisition volume there has not been enough product to satisfy this supply
of credit. Investment yields for office, residential, logistics and
industrial real estate are steady and the hunt for yield in this near zero
interest rate environment is likely to be supportive of property values over
the coming period.
In real estate capital markets, we anticipated in last quarter's factsheet
that there would be an increase in activity in the fourth quarter. While
second and third quarter volumes were low and the summer seemed
exceptionally quiet, we have begun to see some evidence of the pickup in the
fourth quarter already. A great example we have seen recently of a leading
indicator for transaction activity is data from one of the leading real
estate brokerage firms on their level of requests to pitch for sales
mandates in the German market which showed more volume in September than the
May to August period all together.
We commented on the resilience of the logistics and industrial markets both
for leasing and transactions last quarter and now we have begun to also see
a number of landmark office deals being announced particularly in London
over the past few days. Large transactions include the GBP480 million sale of
One London Wall Place by Brookfield to Middle Eastern investor AGC
reflecting a net initial yield of 3.8 per cent and the a 50 per cent
interest in Land Securities' Nova estate by Canadian Pension Plan to Suntec
REIT. We can see more evidence of volumes picking up in Savills September
West End and City investment watch articles where they note that there are a
similar volume of purchases currently under offer to the total that were
closed in the whole of the year to the end of August. We have also seen a
strong market with robust pricing for new acquisitions agreed in Germany and
Dublin. In Dublin since the lockdowns were announced, on the office leasing
side there have been 52 new requirements totalling 640,000 square feet and
active requirements in Dublin are currently estimated to be 4.2 million
square feet showing robust demand for office space while supply remains
muted. With notaries closed for much of the second quarter and the
investment process taking longer in Southern Europe generally there is less
transactional evidence in Madrid and Barcelona where the bulk of the balance
of the Group's office exposure is. However, rents are still very affordable,
vacancy remains low in these markets, there is very constrained new supply
and this is expected to provide a level of support to both rental levels and
capital values despite COVID effects.
The Covid pandemic has driven a change in working practices with many people
forced to work from home although the impact has been vastly different in
different countries. For example only 34 per cent of office based workers
have returned to their normal work location in the UK but in continental
Europe there is a very different picture with each of Germany, Italy and
Spain reporting greater than 70 per cent and in France it is 83 per cent.
Whilst many firms have implemented the ability to have a full work from home
environment it is widely believed that physical office space will continue
to remain important going forward allowing employees to collaborate,
innovate and be productive. Offices provide a key tool for employers to
engage and attract talent and to reflect a company's brand and culture. We
hear regular anecdotes from financial and professional services companies
reporting reduced productivity as a result from working from home including
a decrease in overall per employee capacity due to inefficiency of
communication, the lack of the collaborative spark of office interactions
and the reduction of interactions for new and junior employees stifling
training and development. While it is likely that all occupiers will conduct
a review of their real estate requirements in light of the effects of COVID,
the macro-economic impacts of COVID are still to be determined and whilst
there will be many newspaper headlines on this subject, we note in the
recent CBRE Future of the Office report, that only 13 per cent of
respondents claimed that the importance of physical office space would
decrease significantly.
Moving to hospitality and retail, European hotel and retail operations
remain challenged as restrictions on travel and other operations disrupt
business. Currently 66 per cent of all intra-European travel routes are
subject to restrictions. Liquidity to allow these operational businesses
breathing room over the coming quarters will be key. The window of eased
travel and operational constraints in the middle of this year did show
however that when people are allowed to travel and hotels were open the
desire is there from the customer. There is still a long way to go for
European markets. The Investment Adviser is also following global market
trends which has included Chinese hospitality performance data. There were
only 390 existing COVID cases reported at the end of September in mainland
China and the statistics for mainland China weekly hotel occupancy data
reflect this low level of impact of the virus. Weekly occupancy data versus
same period last year from STR has been trending up steadily from 90 percent
lower than previous year in February with the latest data showing occupancy
for the week ending 26th September now actually 2 per cent higher than the
same week in the previous year.
As we noted in the second quarter factsheet the residential market has held
up well in the markets we are exposed to and we have continued to see a
steady sales performance. This can be observed very clearly in the loan
balance of our Residential London loan, originally a GBP58 million commitment,
the exposure has been reduced to GBP33.4 million by the end of the third
quarter.
In the real estate lending market we are currently seeing very robust
financing appetite for the best credits although financing processes remain
slower particularly due to the practicalities of doing business from outside
of the office. For more value add projects there are significantly fewer
data-points and there is opportunity in this space. While there is less new
money available for hospitality and retail we still have seen some new
financing terms issued by other lenders over the past month in both areas.
We had noted in the last factsheet that larger deals requiring syndication
have been particularly difficult with investment banks needing to shift
pre-COVID loan inventory. We understand good progress has been made on much
of this inventory and have seen renewed enthusiasm from investment banks to
do business as we enter a fresh new quarter. With a reduced turnover of
loans this year, the Company has a limited capacity for new origination and
is focussed in the short term on the best balance of risk adjusted returns.
Share Price / NAV at 30 September 2020
Share price (p) 85.2
NAV (p) 103.74
Discount 17.9%
Dividend yield 7.6%
Market cap GBP351 m
Key Portfolio Statistics at 30 September 2020
Number of investments 18
Percentage of currently invested portfolio in floating 79.6%
rate loans
Invested Loan Portfolio unlevered annualised total 6.7%
return (1)
Portfolio levered annualised total return (2) 7.0%
Weighted average portfolio LTV - to Group first GBP (3) 18.1%
Weighted average portfolio LTV - to Group last GBP (3) 62.6%
Average loan term (stated maturity at inception) 4.5 years
Average remaining loan term 2.7 years
Net Asset Value GBP427.0m
Amount drawn under Revolving Credit Facilities (GBP23.5m)
(including accrued interest)
Loans advanced (including accrued interest) GBP452.3m
Cash GBP1.7m
Other net assets/ (liabilities) (including hedges) (GBP3.5m)
Origination Fees - current quarter GBP0.0m
Origination Fees - last 12 months GBP1.3m
Management Fees - current quarter GBP0.8m
Management Fees - last 12 months GBP3.2m
(1) The unlevered annualised total return is calculated on amounts
outstanding at the reporting date, excluding undrawn commitments, and
assuming all drawn loans are outstanding for the full contractual term. 15
of the loans are floating rate (partially or in whole and some with floors)
and returns are based on an assumed profile for future interbank rates but
the actual rate received may be higher or lower. Calculated only on amounts
funded at the reporting date and excluding committed amounts (but including
commitment fees) and excluding cash un-invested. The calculation also
excludes the origination fee payable to the Investment Manager.
(2)The levered annualised total return is calculated as per the unlevered
return but takes into account the amount of net leverage in the Group and
the cost of that leverage at current LIBOR/EURIBOR.
(3) LTV to Group last GBP means the percentage which the total loan drawn less
any deductible lender controlled cash reserves and less any amortisation
received to date (when aggregated with any other indebtedness ranking
alongside and/or senior to it) bears to the market value determined by the
last formal lender valuation received by the reporting date. LTV to first
Group GBP means the starting point of the loan to value range of the loans
drawn (when aggregated with any other indebtedness ranking senior to it).
For development projects the calculation includes the total facility
available and is calculated against the assumed market value on completion
of the relevant project.
Remaining years to Value of loans % of invested
contractual maturity* (GBPm) portfolio
0 to 1 years 38.1 8.5%
1 to 2 years 111.8 24.8%
2 to 3 years 153.1 34.0%
3 to 5 years 90.6 20.1%
5 to 10 years 57.1 12.7%
*excludes any permitted extensions. Note that borrowers may elect to repay
loans before contractual maturity.
Country % of invested assets
Spain 29.3%
UK - Central London 21.4%
Republic of Ireland 19.8%
UK - Regional England 11.9%
UK - Scotland 9.4%
Netherlands 4.0%
Germany 3.1%
Finland 1.1%
Sector % of invested assets
Hospitality 36.0%
Office 21.5%
Residential for sale 17.3%
Retail 12.8%
Healthcare 5.5%
Logistics 4.0%
Light Industrial 1.8%
Residential for rent 0.9%
Other 0.2%
Loan type % of invested assets
Whole loans 61.7%
Mezzanine 38.3%
Currency % of invested assets*
Sterling 42.7%
Euro 57.3%
*the currency split refers to the underlying loan currency, however the
capital on all non-sterling exposure is hedged back to sterling.
For further information, please contact:
Apex Fund and Corporate Services (Guernsey)
Limited as Company Secretary
01481 735870
Jonty Erridge
Starwood Capital
Duncan MacPherson 020 7016 3655
Jefferies International Limited
Stuart Klein 020 7029 8000
Neil Winward
Gaudi Le Roux
Notes:
Starwood European Real Estate Finance Limited is an investment company
listed on the premium segment of the main market of the London Stock
Exchange with an investment objective to provide Shareholders with regular
dividends and an attractive total return while limiting downside risk,
through the origination, execution, acquisition and servicing of a
diversified portfolio of real estate debt investments in the UK and the
wider European Union's internal market. www.starwoodeuropeanfinance.com [1].
The Company is the largest London-listed vehicle to provide investors with
pure play exposure to real estate lending.
The Group's assets are managed by Starwood European Finance Partners
Limited, an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of the Starwood Capital Group.
ISIN: GG00B79WC100
Category Code: MSCM
TIDM: SWEF
LEI Code: 5493004YMVUQ9Z7JGZ50
Sequence No.: 86428
EQS News ID: 1142592
End of Announcement EQS News Service
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