DALLAS, Jan. 22,
2024 /PRNewswire/ -- The Comerica Texas Economic
Activity Index increased by 5.3% annualized in the three months
through October and was up 2.2% from a year earlier. Five of
the Index's nine components rose in the month, while four fell. The
Texas labor market is cooling:
Employment rose by a modest 18,600 in October and growth was
notably slower compared to 2022 when 52,500 jobs, on average, were
added per month. Also indicating a softer job market, continuing
jobless claims rose again and were above 100,000 for the fourteenth
consecutive month. And the unemployment rate held at 4.1% for the
sixth consecutive month, three tenths of a percentage point above
the national rate.
Housing starts slumped by 4.7% in October and were down 11.7%
from a year earlier. Residential construction, down 12.6% through
October versus the same period in 2022, is a drag on Texas' economy as soaring mortgage rates and
high prices sideline many would-be homebuyers. Despite this, house
prices rose in October for the seventh consecutive month. Strong
growth of population and employment, and limited housing supply are
supports for Texan house prices. Seasonally-adjusted industrial
electricity sales surged by 3.8% and were up 7.9% from a year
earlier. Seasonally-adjusted active oil drilling rigs fell sharply
by 3.2% and were down by nearly 17% from a year earlier. Despite
the reduction in active drilling rigs, oil production and
employment are notably higher than in 2022. Hotel occupancy fell
again and has been down in seven of the ten months through
October. The strong dollar and the end of years of
pandemic-related travel restrictions have American tourists
traveling more internationally, diverting demand from in-state
destinations. Tax receipts show real consumer spending fell by 3.3%
in October and come on the heels of a slight contraction in the
third quarter. Nonetheless, consumer spending was up by 1.4%
through October compared to the same period last year.
Real GDP in the Texan economy was up a solid 5.7% in the first
three quarters of last year from the same period in 2022,
indicating strong momentum heading into the final quarter. While
Texas likely outpaced the national
economy again last year, high inflation, high interest rates, and a
cooler housing market will be persistent headwinds to Texas and are likely to weigh on economic
activity in 2024.
The Comerica Texas Economic Activity Index is a monthly
composite indicator of state economic activity. The Index provides
a wholistic advance view of the state of Texas's economy, using economic data that are
available about one quarter earlier than real GDP is released. The
index is comprised of nine components: Nonfarm payroll employment,
continuing claims for unemployment insurance, housing starts, house
prices, industrial electricity sales, the Texas rotary rig count, foreign trade, hotel
occupancy, and sales tax revenue. All data are seasonally adjusted
with nominal values converted to constant dollar values as
appropriate. To filter out month-to-month volatility in the index
components, the index is calculated from the three-month moving
averages of its components. Values for a minority of components are
projected from the prior months' release due to the timing of data
releases.
Comerica Bank, a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE:
CMA), is a financial services company headquartered in Dallas, Texas, and strategically aligned by
three business segments: The Commercial Bank, The Retail
Bank, and Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on building
relationships and helping people and businesses be successful,
providing more than 400 banking centers across the country with
locations in Arizona, California, Florida, Michigan and Texas. Founded 175 years ago in Detroit, Michigan, Comerica continues to
expand into new regions, including its Southeast Market, based in
North Carolina, and Mountain West
Market in Colorado. Comerica has
offices in 17 states and services 14 of the 15 largest U.S.
metropolitan areas, as well as Canada and Mexico. Comerica reported total assets of
$85.8 billion at Dec. 31, 2023. Learn more about how Comerica is
raising expectations of what a bank can be by visiting
www.comerica.com, and follow us
on Facebook, X (formerly known as
Twitter), Instagram and LinkedIn.
To subscribe to our publications or for questions, contact us at
ComericaEcon@comerica.com. Archives are available at
http://www.comerica.com/insights.
View original content to download
multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/comerica-banks-texas-index-rose-in-october-302041222.html
SOURCE Comerica Bank