Solana Faces Make-Or-Break Moment As $1.77 Billion Unlock Looms
24 Février 2025 - 10:00PM
NEWSBTC
In a technical chart shared today, crypto analyst Koroush
Khaneghah, Founder of Zero Complexity Trading, underscores Solana’s
ongoing downtrend, highlighting pivotal support and resistance
levels on the SOL/USDT Perpetual (Binance) daily timeframe.
According to the chart, Solana has lost several key zones and is
currently hovering near the $157 area—what Khaneghah labels as the
“last major support level.” The Bearish Argument For Solana “The
downtrend continues as SOL gets rejected by another S/R flip and
crashes down to the $150 level. Sentiment at an all-time low.
Assume continuation until proven otherwise,” Khaneghah writes via
X. A prominent feature of the analysis is a support/resistance
(S/R) flip around $180.58. Earlier in February, Solana attempted to
reclaim this level but was met with strong selling pressure. The
failure to secure a daily close above $180.58—now acting as
resistance—signaled renewed downside momentum. Following the drop,
Solana has settled just above $157, marked on the chart as the
“Last major support level.” Prices have briefly dipped below this
zone, suggesting fragility in the market’s current stance. A
failure to hold $157 on daily closes increases the possibility of
further decline toward the next significant horizontal line around
$127.05—visible at the lower end of the chart. Related Reading:
More Pain Ahead For Solana? Dangerous Price Drop To $125 Looms With
This Support Koroush’s annotations also indicate that crossing back
above $180.58 would shift the market bias from bearish to
“neutral.” Until that happens, the analyst cautions that sellers
appear to be in control, with negative sentiment around meme coins
reinforcing the ongoing downtrend. The Bullish Argument For SOL
Meanwhile, crypto analyst RunnerXBT (@RunnerXBT) has shared a
orderflow analysis of the Solana (SOL) futures chart (2-hour
timeframe on Binance) today. The chart underscores notable price
points, liquidations, and changes in positioning ahead of the
upcoming March 1 unlock—when 11.2 million SOL (valued at roughly
$1.77 billion) are scheduled for release. In the annotated chart,
the price peaked in mid-January, reaching $295, before beginning a
steady descent that has most recently seen SOL hovering in the
mid-$150 range. The chart shows that from early to late January,
there was a significant drop in open interest (OI) alongside a
slide in the price, with Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) suggesting
it was driven primarily by long positions closing. RunnerXBT’s
notes attribute this to SOL weakness moving largely in tandem (1:1)
with Bitcoin. By late January, after a more pronounced downward
move, the price and OI both settled at lower levels. OI briefly
rebounded in early February, though the chart indicates that
initial long positioning was soon followed by short covering as
traders pivoted to profit-taking or closed losing short positions.
Despite this activity, SOL’s price was unable to mount a sustained
uptrend, reinforcing a broader sense of hesitancy among traders.
Related Reading: Are Meme Coins Hurting Solana? Rising Selling
Pressure Sparks Investor Concerns Around mid-February (February
16–18) and again on February 24, the chart highlights phases of
“aggressive shorting and spot selling,” which contributed to
persistent downward pressure on the price. Though there were
instances of short covering (notably around February 21, where CVD
ticked up slightly), the overall momentum has remained subdued,
with few signs of new long accumulation. On the right side of the
chart, RunnerXBT has placed a vertical red line marking March 1 as
the date of what he calls the “biggest SOL unlock known to
mankind.” Many market participants appear to be “front-running” the
event by selling in anticipation of a flood of new tokens hitting
the market. This has the potential to drive heightened volatility.
Yet, in his post, RunnerXBT warns against shorting SOL at current
levels, explaining that he initially started monitoring this
situation when the token traded just under $200 and is now seeking
a scalp long after the unlock has happened. He points out that
attempts to catch every 5–10% daily drop are dangerous and that
traders who do so risk frequent stop-outs or liquidations. “I dont
think its a wise “new” short here of SOL. I started posting about
the situation at jus under $200 per SOL. I am looking for a scalp
long AFTER the unlock, people “frontrunning” it are getting stopped
out or liquidated. You aren’t a hero catching -5% to -10% daily
falling knives. […] TLDR: Looking for longs (not 5 days before
unlock). NOT shorts. if people can’t read, i can’t help you,” he
writes via X. At press time, SOL traded at $158. Featured image
from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
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